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Minera Frisco, S.A. (MFRISCOA-1) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 83.1B MXN (≈ $4.9B) · ISIN MX01MF010000

What is Minera Frisco, S.A. really worth?

MF Minera Frisco, S.A. MFRISCOA-1 · MX
Price22.26 MXN
Fair Value4.37 MXN
Upside−80.4% ⚠
Quality77/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A strong business, but trading 409% above our fair value of 4.37 MXN.

As of Sep 5, 2026, the fair value of Minera Frisco, S.A. is 4.37 MXN per share against a price of 22.26 MXN, so the fair value sits 80% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.5% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 83/100

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 5 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range 3.28 MXN – 5.47 MXN

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5.47 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

22.95 MXN 2.07 MXN Fair Value 4.37 MXN Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 2.07 MXN – 22.95 MXN · fair‑value band 3.28 MXN – 5.47 MXN · the 22.26 MXN price screens above the 4.37 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Minera Frisco, S.A. (MFRISCOA-1) currently trades at 22.26 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.37 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 409.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 6.63 MXN per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the 22.26 MXN price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.6800 MXN, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Minera Frisco, S.A. generated revenue of 16.8B MXN at a net margin of 17.5%. Revenue grew 89.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.6%. Net debt stands at 13.2B MXN. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 3.28 MXN (bear case) to 5.47 MXN (bull case); at 22.26 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −80%, MFRISCOA-1 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.3329 MXN per share, which is 7.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (0.4000 MXN to 11.90 MXN). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 7.45 MXN 11.90 MXN 18.62 MXN 79
Growth DCF 7.61 MXN 11.58 MXN 17.23 MXN 78
Owner Earnings 3.96 MXN 6.54 MXN 10.43 MXN 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 7.45 MXN 11.90 MXN 18.62 MXN 79
Owner Earnings 3.96 MXN 6.54 MXN 10.43 MXN 75
5Y Revenue Exit 3.58 MXN 5.19 MXN 7.13 MXN 73
5Y EBITDA Exit 7.05 MXN 11.63 MXN 16.90 MXN 74
5Y P/E Exit 3.96 MXN 5.90 MXN 7.87 MXN 71
10Y Revenue Exit 4.84 MXN 6.63 MXN 8.82 MXN 67
10Y EBITDA Exit 7.12 MXN 11.08 MXN 16.22 MXN 68
10Y P/E Exit 5.15 MXN 7.12 MXN 9.38 MXN 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.75 MXN 5.21 MXN 6.90 MXN 65
Lynch FV 1.10 MXN 1.57 MXN 2.04 MXN 61
PEG = 1.0 1.10 MXN 1.57 MXN 2.04 MXN 57
EPV 4.80 MXN 5.74 MXN 6.56 MXN 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.2400 MXN 0.5100 MXN 0.8000 MXN 66
DDM Multi-Stage 0.2400 MXN 0.4000 MXN 0.5300 MXN 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 3.28 MXN 4.37 MXN 5.47 MXN 63
P/S Multiple 2.62 MXN 3.49 MXN 4.36 MXN 58
P/B Multiple 2.29 MXN 3.06 MXN 3.82 MXN 55
EV/EBIT 7.79 MXN 10.67 MXN 13.54 MXN 66
EV/EBITDA 7.80 MXN 10.68 MXN 13.56 MXN 67
EV/Revenue 1.60 MXN 2.65 MXN 3.69 MXN 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 0.5100 MXN 0.6800 MXN 1.02 MXN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 7.61 MXN 11.58 MXN 17.23 MXN 78
Rev-Margin DCF 3.58 MXN 5.31 MXN 7.33 MXN 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1.79 MXN 2.58 MXN 18.66 MXN 64
ROIC Compounder 5.13 MXN 6.56 MXN 8.11 MXN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 2.73 MXN 3.91 MXN 5.08 MXN 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (6.63 MXN) versus Dividend Discount (0.4000 MXN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 45.4
P/S ratio 5.03 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 0.4900 MXN price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.4
Dividend yield 0.2% payout 11.0%
Net margin 11.1% FY2025
Return on equity 35.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 52.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 16.8B MXN TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +89.3% 3y avg +3.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +575%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 4.5B MXN FY2025
Net debt 13.2B MXN FY2025 · ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 77/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76

Profitability 51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 95
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Minera Frisco, S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the exploration and exploitation of mining lots for the production and sale of gold and silver doré in Mexico. It produces copper cathode, as well as copper, lead-silver, and zinc concentrates. The company operates 8 mining units around Mexico. Minera Frisco, S.A.B. de C.V.

Full company description

Minera Frisco, S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the exploration and exploitation of mining lots for the production and sale of gold and silver doré in Mexico. It produces copper cathode, as well as copper, lead-silver, and zinc concentrates. The company operates 8 mining units around Mexico. Minera Frisco, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Minera Frisco, S.A. reported revenue of 14.1B MXN in FY2025 versus 12.8B MXN in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B MXN in FY2025.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
14.1B MXN
Latest YoY
+34.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.6%
Value creation/yr (3Y, in MXN) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.0% · in MXN
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+16.8%
Dividend yield0.2%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−24.2% (2019) → 35.3% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop2,021% (2019) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in MXN
Revenue +2.3%/yr
FY21 12.8B MXN
FY22 12.7B MXN
FY23 8.8B MXN
FY24 10.5B MXN
FY25 14.1B MXN
Net income
FY21 −1.8B MXN
FY22 975M MXN
FY23 −783M MXN
FY24 −939M MXN
FY25 1.6B MXN

MFRISCOA-1 screens 409% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Minera Frisco, S.A. · Fair Value
4.37 MXN −409%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Minera Frisco, S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MFRISCOA-1

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 36% · Top 25%
Return on assets 15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 52% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 89% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.97× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 45.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 13.49× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.93× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 9.7× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 38
PAST100 · sector 0
HEALTH51 · sector 96
DIVIDEND5 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHP A$66.84 A$42.16 −37%
Vale S.A VALE $15.31 $8.95 −42%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 65.50 SAR 33.87 SAR −48%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.42 ¥16.15 −12%
Teck Resources Limited TECK $69.34 $32.02 −54%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹573.00 ₹508.34 −11%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥66.76 ¥9.55 −86%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥41.02 ¥10.59 −74%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥37.85 ¥25.99 −31%
Boliden AB BOL kr 527.80 kr 461.48 −13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Minera Frisco, S.A. (MFRISCOA-1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.37 MXN versus a price of 22.26 MXN, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MFRISCOA-1?
Our model-based fair value for Minera Frisco, S.A. is 4.37 MXN (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 22.26 MXN.
What is the quality score of MFRISCOA-1?
Minera Frisco, S.A. has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Minera Frisco, S.A. (MFRISCOA-1)?
Minera Frisco, S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 16.8B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MFRISCOA-1?
The net profit margin of Minera Frisco, S.A. is about 17.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Minera Frisco, S.A. pay a dividend?
Minera Frisco, S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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