Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Midea Group Co., Ltd $14.83, price $11.55, upside +28.4%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range $9.05 – $13.03 · fair‑value band $10.38 – $19.28 · the $11.55 price screens below the $14.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Midea Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of electrical appliance in China and internationally. The company operates in Smart Home System, Building Technology, Robotics and Automation, and Industrial Technology, and Other Innovative Business.
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Midea Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of electrical appliance in China and internationally. The company operates in Smart Home System, Building Technology, Robotics and Automation, and Industrial Technology, and Other Innovative Business. It offers smart home products such as household air conditioners, central air conditioners, heating and ventilation systems, kitchen appliances, refrigerators, washing machines, and various small appliances; commercial and industrial solutions, including products and services, such as elevators, high and low voltage frequency converters, medical imaging products, robots, and automation systems; and other businesses including smart supply chain, sales, wholesale and processing of household appliance raw materials, as well as financial businesses, such as deposit taking, interbank lending, consumer credit, buyer credit, and financial leasing. Additionally, it provides Internet of Things solutions. Midea Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1968 and is based in Foshan, China.
Stock analysis
Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY) currently trades at $11.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.83, implying the stock looks roughly 22.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $17.10 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the $11.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.94, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.38 (bear) to $19.28 (bull), the price of $11.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Midea Group Co., Ltd reported revenue of 459B CNY in FY2025 versus 343B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 43.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding +11.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $87.7B · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 1.26 · EPS (TTM) $0.8600 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 28%, MGCLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.38Fair Value $14.83Bull $19.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.3% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 300 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Midea Group Co., Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGCLY
Frequently asked questions
Is Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.83 versus a price of $11.55, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MGCLY?
Our model-based fair value for Midea Group Co., Ltd is $14.83 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.55.
What is the quality score of MGCLY?
Midea Group Co., Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.83 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.38, optimistic scenario $19.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Midea Group Co., Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.83, about +28% upside versus a price of $11.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.38, optimistic scenario $19.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
Midea Group Co., Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 460B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Midea Group Co., Ltd pay a dividend?
Midea Group Co., Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Midea Group Co., Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -1.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGCLY use?
Our models discount Midea Group Co., Ltd at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Midea Group Co., Ltd that is -1.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Midea Group Co., Ltd grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies -1.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Midea Group Co., Ltd (-1.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.17 %: that much free cash flow Midea Group Co., Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Midea Group Co., Ltd it is $14.83 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $11.55. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Midea Group Co., Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, MGCLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.55, fair value $14.83, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGCLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.83). For Midea Group Co., Ltd the two are $3.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Midea Group Co., Ltd worth?
The market values Midea Group Co., Ltd at about $87.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $11.55; our models calculate a fair value of $14.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGCLY?
Our models span a range for Midea Group Co., Ltd: cautious scenario $10.38, base $14.83, optimistic $19.28 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $11.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGCLY?
Midea Group Co., Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 2.6, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MGCLY?
The PEG ratio of Midea Group Co., Ltd is 2.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Midea Group Co., Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGCLY from its 52-week high?
Midea Group Co., Ltd trades at $11.55, about 10% below its 52-week high of $12.85 and 24% above the low of $9.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Midea Group Co., Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value King Slide Works Co, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, SharkNinja, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Midea Group Co., Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $11.55, calculated fair value $14.83 (+28%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGCLY calculated?
We run Midea Group Co., Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Midea Group Co., Ltd currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $11.55. Our model-based fair value is $14.83, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Midea Group Co., Ltd right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($10.38 to $19.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Midea Group Co., Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
The market capitalisation of Midea Group Co., Ltd is $87.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Midea Group Co., Ltd is 1.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
Earnings per share at Midea Group Co., Ltd are $0.8600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
The dividend yield of Midea Group Co., Ltd is 5.6% (payout 74.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
The net margin of Midea Group Co., Ltd is 9.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Midea Group Co., Ltd is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Midea Group Co., Ltd is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
The operating margin of Midea Group Co., Ltd is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
Revenue at Midea Group Co., Ltd is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY)?
Earnings per share at Midea Group Co., Ltd are growing +3.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Midea Group Co., Ltd (MGCLY) carry?
The net debt of Midea Group Co., Ltd is 3.7B CNY (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026