Migdal Insurance (MGDL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Migdal Insurance ILS 14.89, price ILS 21.20, upside -29.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.45 ILA – 21.84 ILA · fair‑value band 10.59 ILA – 20.72 ILA · the 21.20 ILA price screens above the 14.89 ILA fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Migdal Insurance and Financial Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, pension, and financial services for private and corporate customers in Israel.
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Migdal Insurance and Financial Holdings Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, pension, and financial services for private and corporate customers in Israel. The company deals with and manages pension plans, life and health insurance products, pensions, and financial business plans; and provides personal accident and mortgage insurance solutions, and savings, as well as insurance agency services. It also operates nostro accounts and manages financial assets, including mutual funds and portfolios, as well as engages in the investment banking and distribution activities. The company was founded in 1934 and is based in Petah Tikva, Israel.
Stock analysis
Migdal Insurance (MGDL) currently trades at 21.20 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.89 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 42.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 16.52 ILA per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the 21.20 ILA price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 6.29 ILA, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 10.59 ILA (bear) to 20.72 ILA (bull), the price of 21.20 ILA sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Migdal Insurance reported revenue of 34.7B ILS in FY2025 versus 36.7B ILS in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8B ILS in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 22.5B ILA · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) 1.79 ILA · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 20.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −30%, MGDL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 10.59 ILAFair Value 14.89 ILABull 20.72 ILA
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.31 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15% vs 18%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 8%
2025 sits 188% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 95 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−30% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.74× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.59× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA3.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)61· sector 43
PAST (return on equity)81· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Migdal Insurance Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGDL
Frequently asked questions
Is Migdal Insurance (MGDL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 14.89 ILA versus a price of 21.20 ILA, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MGDL?
Our model-based fair value for Migdal Insurance is 14.89 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 21.20 ILA.
What is the quality score of MGDL?
Migdal Insurance has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 14.89 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 10.59 ILA, optimistic scenario 20.72 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Migdal Insurance stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 14.89 ILA, about −30% upside versus a price of 21.20 ILA (overvalued). Cautious scenario 10.59 ILA, optimistic scenario 20.72 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
Migdal Insurance reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.6B ILS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Migdal Insurance pay a dividend?
Migdal Insurance currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Migdal Insurance would have to grow free cash flow by -14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGDL use?
Our models discount Migdal Insurance at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Migdal Insurance that is -14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Migdal Insurance (MGDL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Migdal Insurance grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies -14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Migdal Insurance (MGDL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Migdal Insurance (-14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.53 %: that much free cash flow Migdal Insurance produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Migdal Insurance it is 14.89 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 21.20 ILA. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Migdal Insurance stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MGDL trades above its calculated fair value: price 21.20 ILA, fair value 14.89 ILA, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGDL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (21.20 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (14.89 ILA). For Migdal Insurance the two are 6.31 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Migdal Insurance worth?
The market values Migdal Insurance at about 22.5B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 21.20 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 14.89 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGDL?
Our models span a range for Migdal Insurance: cautious scenario 10.59 ILA, base 14.89 ILA, optimistic 20.72 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 21.20 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGDL?
Migdal Insurance trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 14.89 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Migdal Insurance (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.3%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGDL from its 52-week high?
Migdal Insurance trades at 21.20 ILA, about 3% below its 52-week high of 21.84 ILA and 105% above the low of 10.34 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 14.89 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Migdal Insurance?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Migdal Insurance stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 21.20 ILA, calculated fair value 14.89 ILA (−30%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGDL calculated?
We run Migdal Insurance through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 14.89 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Migdal Insurance itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 21.20 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 14.89 ILA, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Migdal Insurance right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.72 ILA). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (10.59 ILA to 20.72 ILA) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Migdal Insurance (MGDL) come from?
Earnings per share at Migdal Insurance grew +13.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin −14.8 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +27.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Migdal Insurance
How large is the market capitalisation of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
The market capitalisation of Migdal Insurance is 22.5B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Migdal Insurance is 0.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
Earnings per share at Migdal Insurance are 1.79 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
The dividend yield of Migdal Insurance is 0.3% (payout 3.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
The net margin of Migdal Insurance is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Migdal Insurance is 20.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Migdal Insurance is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
The operating margin of Migdal Insurance is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
Revenue at Migdal Insurance is growing +12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +75.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Migdal Insurance (MGDL)?
Earnings per share at Migdal Insurance are growing +25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Migdal Insurance (MGDL) carry?
The net debt of Migdal Insurance is 4.7B ILA (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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