Morgan Sindall Group (MGNS) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · GB · Market cap 2.2B GBX

A solid business, screening 64% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case (£59.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £12.43 – £57.00 · fair‑value band £59.04 – £95.31 · the £47.42 price screens below the £78.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Morgan Sindall Group (MGNS) currently trades at £47.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £78.00, implying the stock looks roughly 64.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Morgan Sindall Group generated revenue of £5.0B at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue grew 13.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £409M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £59.04 (bear case) to £95.31 (bull case); at £47.42, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 64%, MGNS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£92.03) versus Asset-Based (£10.75). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Morgan Sindall Group plc operates as a construction and regeneration company in the United Kingdom. The company operates through six segments: Partnership Housing, Mixed Use Partnerships, Fit Out, Construction, Infrastructure, and Property Services.

Full company description

Morgan Sindall Group plc operates as a construction and regeneration company in the United Kingdom. The company operates through six segments: Partnership Housing, Mixed Use Partnerships, Fit Out, Construction, Infrastructure, and Property Services. The Partnership Housing segment focuses on working in partnerships with local authorities and housing associations, which includes mixed-tenure developments; building and developing homes for open market sale and for social/affordable rent; design and build house contracting; and planned maintenance and refurbishment. The Mixed Use Partnerships segment transforms urban landscape through partnership working and the development of multi-phase sites and mixed-use placemaking. The Fit Out segment offers fit out and refurbishment in commercial, central and local government offices, and further education, as well as provides office interior design and build services direct to occupiers. The Construction segment focuses on education, healthcare, commercial, industrial, leisure, and retail markets. The Property Services segment provides response and planned maintenance services for social housing and the wider public sector. The Infrastructure segment provides services to energy, nuclear, rail, highways, water, and defence markets, including BakerHicks design activities from the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The company was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Morgan Sindall Group reported revenue of £5.0B in FY2025 versus £3.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was £175M in FY2025, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.