Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Migros Ticaret A.S. TRY 763, price TRY 524, upside +45.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 29.28 TRY – 724.00 TRY · fair‑value band 571.94 TRY – 953.23 TRY · the 523.50 TRY price screens below the 762.58 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Migros Ticaret A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail sale of food and beverages, and consumer goods in Turkey. It is also involved in online food retailing; takeout food business; provision of payment and e-money, motorcycle courier, electric vehicle charging, and corporate payment services, as well as shopping mall management.
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Migros Ticaret A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail sale of food and beverages, and consumer goods in Turkey. It is also involved in online food retailing; takeout food business; provision of payment and e-money, motorcycle courier, electric vehicle charging, and corporate payment services, as well as shopping mall management. In addition, the company engages in media, logistics, and fintech businesses; and production of packaged food production. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Migros Ticaret A.S., (MGROS) currently trades at 523.50 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 762.58 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 31.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 3,681 TRY per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the 523.50 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 297.33 TRY, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 571.94 TRY (bear) to 953.23 TRY (bull), the price of 523.50 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Migros Ticaret A.S., reported revenue of 413B TRL in FY2025 versus 36.3B TRL in FY2021, a compound +83.7%/yr. Reported net income was 6.5B TRL in FY2025, compounding +106.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 102B TRY (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 0.20 · EPS (TTM) 40.57 TRY · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% · Operating margin 0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 46%, MGROS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 571.94 TRYFair Value 762.58 TRYBull 953.23 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (30.01 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+76.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+70.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +46.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+78.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+78.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −25.0% a year for the price and +3.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+45.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.2% · Below median
Return on assets3.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Migros Ticaret A.S., Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGROS
Frequently asked questions
Is Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 762.58 TRY versus a price of 523.50 TRY, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MGROS?
Our model-based fair value for Migros Ticaret A.S., is 762.58 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 523.50 TRY.
What is the quality score of MGROS?
Migros Ticaret A.S., has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 762.58 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 571.94 TRY, optimistic scenario 953.23 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Migros Ticaret A.S., stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 762.58 TRY, about +46% upside versus a price of 523.50 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 571.94 TRY, optimistic scenario 953.23 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
Migros Ticaret A.S., reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 419B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Migros Ticaret A.S., would have to grow free cash flow by -10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +70.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGROS use?
Our models discount Migros Ticaret A.S., at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Migros Ticaret A.S., that is -10.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Migros Ticaret A.S., grew +70.3 % a year. The price currently implies -10.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Migros Ticaret A.S., (-10.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.92 %: that much free cash flow Migros Ticaret A.S., produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Migros Ticaret A.S., it is 762.58 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 523.50 TRY. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Migros Ticaret A.S., stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MGROS trades below its calculated fair value: price 523.50 TRY, fair value 762.58 TRY, a gap of about +46% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGROS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (523.50 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (762.58 TRY). For Migros Ticaret A.S., the two are 239.08 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Migros Ticaret A.S., worth?
The market values Migros Ticaret A.S., at about 102B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 523.50 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 762.58 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGROS?
Our models span a range for Migros Ticaret A.S.,: cautious scenario 571.94 TRY, base 762.58 TRY, optimistic 953.23 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 523.50 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGROS?
Migros Ticaret A.S., trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 762.58 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Migros Ticaret A.S., (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGROS from its 52-week high?
Migros Ticaret A.S., trades at 523.50 TRY, about 28% below its 52-week high of 724.00 TRY and 24% above the low of 422.35 TRY (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 762.58 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Migros Ticaret A.S.,?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Migros Ticaret A.S., stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 523.50 TRY, calculated fair value 762.58 TRY (+46%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGROS calculated?
We run Migros Ticaret A.S., through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 762.58 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Migros Ticaret A.S., currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 523.50 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 762.58 TRY, about +46% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Migros Ticaret A.S., right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (571.94 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Migros Ticaret A.S.,
How large is the market capitalisation of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
The market capitalisation of Migros Ticaret A.S., is 102B TRY (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Migros Ticaret A.S., is 0.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
Earnings per share at Migros Ticaret A.S., are 40.57 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
The net margin of Migros Ticaret A.S., is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Migros Ticaret A.S., is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Migros Ticaret A.S., is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
The operating margin of Migros Ticaret A.S., is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
Revenue at Migros Ticaret A.S., is growing +6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +76.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS)?
Earnings per share at Migros Ticaret A.S., are growing +24.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Migros Ticaret A.S. (MGROS) carry?
The net debt of Migros Ticaret A.S., is 740M TRY (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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