Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. stock $13.25, price $22.92, upside -42.2%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.66 – $33.35 · fair‑value band $9.94 – $16.56 · the $22.92 price screens above the $13.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
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Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. manufactures and sells heavy machinery worldwide. It operates through four segments: Energy Systems; Plants & Infrastructure Systems; Logistics, Thermal & Drive Systems; and Aircraft, Defense & Space segments.
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The company offers thermal, renewable energy, nuclear power generation, engine power plants, and oil and gas production plants, as well as distributed power for total energy solutions and fuel cells; civil aircrafts and aeroengines, aviation equipment, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul of aircrafts; and MHI launch services, rocket engines, human spaceflight and exploration related equipment, rocket launch facility, rocket engine combustion test facility, and satellite/components.
It also provides cruise ships and ferries, LNG and LPG carrier, commercial and special purpose ships, marine machinery, marine boiler, marine turbine, marine solution, marine high speed engines, and marine structures, as well as engineering business; transportation and intelligent transport systems; logistics and material handling machinery; and environment products.
In addition, the company offers rubber and tire machinery, turbochargers, car air-conditioning and refrigeration systems, testing equipment, and engine; printing machinery, paper converting machinery, metals machinery, compressors and mechanical turbines, hydraulic components, particle accelerator, pumps, air-conditioning and refrigeration systems, carrier systems, special systems, food and packaging machinery, and testing equipment; and control systems, gas holder, vibration control systems, water pipes, tunnel excavation machinery, and data center.
Further, it provides living and leisure; defense products comprising special vehicles, naval ship and maritime systems, defense aircraft, helicopter, defense aeroengine, guided weapon systems, and cybersecurity; and engineering products.
The company was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) currently trades at $22.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.25, 42.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $19.36 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the $22.92 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.33, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.94 (bear) to $16.56 (bull), the price of $22.92 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. reported revenue of ¥5.0T in FY2026 versus ¥3.9T in FY2022, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥334B in FY2026, compounding +31.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $77.0B Large · P/E ratio 40.2 · P/S ratio 2.68 · EPS (TTM) $0.5700 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −42%, MHVYF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.94Fair Value $13.25Bull$16.56
Price $22.92 · Upside -42.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2297 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.4% vs −9.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 9%
2026 sits 51% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 18.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.8% a year for the price and +5.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: MHI's core strength is extending proven compressor and modular cooling systems into AI data center solutions while the business remains anchored in energy equipment, yet the average moat shows only limited signals of durable advantage.
Main risk: Uneven project demand typical for energy equipment and machinery could reduce order volumes and hit revenues in the core industrial segments.
MHI is extending its compressor technology and modular cooling systems, proven in decades of industrial applications with a leading share in Japan, into certified solutions for large-scale AI data centers in North America. This move taps a new demand layer while the core business stays rooted in energy equipment and machinery. Does the AI infrastructure angle mainly add incremental volume to existing strengths, or does it require building distinct capabilities that could alter the group's risk profile?
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−43.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)40.2× · Pricier than median
P/B3.98× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.41× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow16.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA16.8× · Pricier than median
PEG1.49× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)59· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)14· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MHVYF
Frequently asked questions
Is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.25 versus a price of $22.92, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MHVYF?
Our model-based fair value for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is $13.25 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.92.
What is the quality score of MHVYF?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.25 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.94, optimistic scenario $16.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.25, about −42% upside versus a price of $22.92 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.94, optimistic scenario $16.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥5.1T (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
Does Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. pay a dividend?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. As of Oct 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MHVYF use?
Our models discount Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. that is +0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies +0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (+0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.35 %: that much free cash flow Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. it is $13.25 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of $22.92. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, MHVYF trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.92, fair value $13.25, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MHVYF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.25). For Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. the two are $9.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. worth?
The market values Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. at about $77.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is $22.92; our models calculate a fair value of $13.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MHVYF?
Our models span a range for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd.: cautious scenario $9.94, base $13.25, optimistic $16.56 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price $22.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MHVYF?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.2 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 4.0, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 16.8.
What is the PEG ratio of MHVYF?
The PEG ratio of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is 1.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 14.8%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MHVYF from its 52-week high?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. trades at $22.92, about 31% below its 52-week high of $33.35 and 5% above the low of $21.82 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price $22.92, calculated fair value $13.25 (−42%), Quality Score 55/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MHVYF calculated?
We run Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was $22.92. Our model-based fair value is $13.25, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) come from?
Earnings per share at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. grew −12.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −20.8 %, EBIT margin +1.6 %, tax rate +3.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
The market capitalisation of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is $77.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is 2.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
Earnings per share at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. are $0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
The dividend yield of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is 0.7% (payout 28.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
The net margin of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is 6.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
The operating margin of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
Earnings per share at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. are growing +97.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) hold?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. holds more cash than debt, ¥462B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 23, 2026