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Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $80.5B · ISIN JP3900000005

What is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. really worth?

MH Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. logo Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. MHVYF · US
Price$24.32
Fair Value$13.16
Upside−45.9%
Quality55/100

A solid business, but trading 85% above our fair value of $13.16.

As of Aug 28, 2026, the fair value of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is $13.16 per share against a price of $24.32, so the fair value sits 46% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Weak on dividend: 12 out of 100

For context

·0.60% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $9.87 – $16.45

Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 9 days ago

Share price −2.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$33.47 $1.66 Fair Value $13.16 Feb 2018 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.66 – $33.47 · fair‑value band $9.87 – $16.45 · the $24.32 price screens above the $13.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

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Analysis

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) currently trades at $24.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.16, implying the stock looks roughly 84.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $16.57 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $24.32 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.03, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. generated revenue of ¥5.0T at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue grew 11.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of ¥462B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $9.87 (bear case) to $16.45 (bull case); at $24.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −46%, MHVYF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.2197 per share, which is 1.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $16.10 $22.59 $31.77 81
Growth DCF $16.57 $22.65 $30.91 79
Owner Earnings $8.14 $11.23 $15.60 77
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $16.10 $22.59 $31.77 81
Owner Earnings $8.14 $11.23 $15.60 77
5Y Revenue Exit $11.05 $15.01 $19.76 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $13.21 $18.82 $24.97 76
5Y P/E Exit $11.94 $16.57 $21.10 72
10Y Revenue Exit $12.59 $16.46 $21.02 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $14.16 $19.02 $24.79 69
10Y P/E Exit $13.37 $17.51 $21.99 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $4.26 $9.52 $12.17 65
PEG = 1.0 $1.54 $2.21 $2.87 57
EPV $6.92 $7.92 $8.79 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.39 $2.25 $3.23 68
DDM Multi-Stage $1.39 $2.03 $2.74 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $9.87 $13.16 $16.45 63
P/S Multiple $7.99 $10.65 $13.32 58
P/B Multiple $7.99 $10.65 $13.32 55
EV/EBIT $11.75 $15.35 $18.96 66
EV/EBITDA $13.09 $17.14 $21.19 67
EV/Revenue $8.65 $11.96 $15.27 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.91 $3.90 $5.83 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $16.57 $22.65 $30.91 79
Rev-Margin DCF $11.05 $15.26 $19.79 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $5.22 $5.92 $10.57 74
ROIC Compounder $7.05 $8.43 $9.97 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $7.37 $10.52 $13.68 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($16.57) versus Dividend Discount ($2.03). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 37.4
P/S ratio 2.50 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.6600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.4
Dividend yield 0.6% payout 22.1%
Net margin 6.7% FY2026
Return on equity 12.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 11.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥5.0T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.3% 3y avg +6.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +65.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥766B FY2026
Net cash ¥462B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 39
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. manufactures and sells heavy machinery worldwide. It operates through four segments: Energy Systems; Plants & Infrastructure Systems; Logistics, Thermal & Drive Systems; and Aircraft, Defense & Space segments.

Full company description

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. manufactures and sells heavy machinery worldwide. It operates through four segments: Energy Systems; Plants & Infrastructure Systems; Logistics, Thermal & Drive Systems; and Aircraft, Defense & Space segments. The company offers thermal, renewable energy, nuclear power generation, engine power plants, and oil and gas production plants, as well as distributed power for total energy solutions and fuel cells; civil aircrafts and aeroengines, aviation equipment, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul of aircrafts; and MHI launch services, rocket engines, human spaceflight and exploration related equipment, rocket launch facility, rocket engine combustion test facility, and satellite/components. It also provides cruise ships and ferries, LNG and LPG carrier, commercial and special purpose ships, marine machinery, marine boiler, marine turbine, marine solution, marine high speed engines, and marine structures, as well as engineering business; transportation and intelligent transport systems; logistics and material handling machinery; and environment products. In addition, the company offers rubber and tire machinery, turbochargers, car air-conditioning and refrigeration systems, testing equipment, and engine; printing machinery, paper converting machinery, metals machinery, compressors and mechanical turbines, hydraulic components, particle accelerator, pumps, air-conditioning and refrigeration systems, carrier systems, special systems, food and packaging machinery, and testing equipment; and control systems, gas holder, vibration control systems, water pipes, tunnel excavation machinery, and data center. Further, it provides living and leisure; defense products comprising special vehicles, naval ship and maritime systems, defense aircraft, helicopter, defense aeroengine, guided weapon systems, and cybersecurity; and engineering products. The company was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. reported revenue of ¥5.0T in FY2026 versus ¥3.9T in FY2022, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥334B in FY2026, compounding +31.0%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
¥5.0T
Latest YoY
−0.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ −16.8% (approximate, leans on 2026) · in JPY
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−17.4%
Dividend yield0.6%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −17.4% vs 10Y −9.2%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1.5% (2021) → 9.0% (2026) · rising
Worst earnings drop108% (2018) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in JPY
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 18.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate leans on 2026: that final year sits 51% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain) and could not be adjusted
Revenue +6.7%/yr
FY22 ¥3.9T
FY23 ¥4.2T
FY24 ¥4.7T
FY25 ¥5.0T
FY26 ¥5.0T
Net income +31.0%/yr
FY22 ¥114B
FY23 ¥130B
FY24 ¥222B
FY25 ¥245B
FY26 ¥334B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −12.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share −20.8 %

of which total revenue +2.3 % · buybacks/dilution −22.6 %

EBIT margin +1.6 %
Tax rate +3.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +5.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

MHVYF screens 85% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MHVYF

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 792 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −46% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.27× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 37.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.05× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.53× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 18.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.44× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE57 · sector 21
PAST50 · sector 28
HEALTH86 · sector 96
DIVIDEND12 · sector 27

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.16 versus a price of $24.32, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MHVYF?
Our model-based fair value for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is $13.16 (as of Aug 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.32.
What is the quality score of MHVYF?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.16 (as of Aug 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.87, optimistic scenario $16.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.16, about −46% upside versus a price of $24.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.87, optimistic scenario $16.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (MHVYF)?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥5.0T (latest available figure, as of Aug 28, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MHVYF?
The net profit margin of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. is about 6.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. pay a dividend?
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.60% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 28, 2026).
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