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Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Bank Millennium S.A. PLN 11.37, price PLN 23.09, upside -50.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · PL · ISIN PLBIG0000016

BM Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Bank Millennium S.A.

MIL · WAR

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value 11.37 PLN · Strongly overvalued (−51%)
!Quality 56/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.8 %/yr)
Solidly profitable · 18.9% net margin (TTM)
Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Wide moat 66/100
!Insider activity 42/100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

23.29 PLN 3.25 PLN Fair Value 11.37 PLN Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 3.25 PLN – 23.29 PLN · fair‑value band 8.53 PLN – 14.20 PLN · the 23.09 PLN price screens above the 11.37 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Bank Millennium S.A. provides various banking products and services in Poland. It operates through Retail Customer; Corporate Customer; and Treasury, Assets and Liabilities Management, and Other segments.

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Bank Millennium S.A. provides various banking products and services in Poland. It operates through Retail Customer; Corporate Customer; and Treasury, Assets and Liabilities Management, and Other segments. The company offers current, savings, foreign currency savings, individual investment retirement, private banking, business, and VAT accounts; and term and structured deposits. It also provides investment advisory; investment plan and funds; credit, debit, and prepaid cards; cash, promotional online, mortgage, home equity, renewable loans, as well as consolidation loan with fixed interest rate, EKO promotional mortgage, personal account overdraft limit, loans secured with assets accumulated in the bank, and loans for purchase of securities; current account overdraft and current account overdraft increase; and property, motor, travel, your assistant, loan under protection, mortgage loan, credit card, and payment cards insurance products. In addition, the company offers Millennium 360 Prestige, Millennium Prestige World, and Prestige Personal Account; Millennium TFI Funds; domestic and foreign investment funds, such as polish and foreign investment funds, investors TFI, Goldman Sachs TFI, Esaliens TFI, and Franklin Templeton; brokerage services; and e-banking. Further, it provides loan with a de minimis guarantee, cash loan and overdraft facility in PLN, leasing; bank guarantee and document collection; additional services, including accounting, online store, payment gateway, payment terminal, and currency exchange services; and ongoing support, financing, and trade finance, as well as treasure products. Bank Millennium S.A. was formerly known as BIG Bank GDANSKI SA and changed its name to Bank Millennium S.A. in January 2003. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. Bank Millennium S.A. is a subsidiary of Banco Comercial Português, S.A.

Stock analysis

Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL) currently trades at 23.09 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.37 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 103.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 10.54 PLN per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the 23.09 PLN price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 5.04 PLN, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 8.53 PLN (bear) to 14.20 PLN (bull), the price of 23.09 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Bank Millennium S.A. reported revenue of 7.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2B PLN in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 28.0B PLN (≈ $7.3B) · P/E ratio 21.2 · P/S ratio 3.54 · EPS (TTM) 1.09 PLN · Net margin 16.7% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin 45.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −51%, MIL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 8.53 PLN Fair Value 11.37 PLN Bull 14.20 PLN
Model Each model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.7973 PLN per share) are deliberately not added. Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence Evidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 7.08 PLN 8.59 PLN 18.55 PLN 66
P/E Multiple 9.67 PLN 12.89 PLN 16.11 PLN 63
P/B Multiple 7.91 PLN 10.54 PLN 13.18 PLN 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple 9.67 PLN 12.89 PLN 16.11 PLN 63
P/B Multiple 7.91 PLN 10.54 PLN 13.18 PLN 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3.76 PLN 5.04 PLN 7.53 PLN 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 7.08 PLN 8.59 PLN 18.55 PLN 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 82
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality Growth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−26.3%
Revenue growth 3 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
Revenue growth 5 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 20 years Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) What the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+92.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+92.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.33% vs 6%, picking up
Profit margin 2008 to 2022 Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.118% → 22%
2025 sits 86% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes This turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−34.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect Analysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −36.2% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−6.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.3%

MIL screens 103% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −51% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 19% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 45% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.23× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.80× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.04× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.5× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.36× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)57 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.69 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.25 HK$62.30 +22%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹737.25 ₹406.85 −45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bank Millennium S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MIL

Frequently asked questions

Is Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.37 PLN versus a price of 23.09 PLN, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MIL?
Our model-based fair value for Bank Millennium S.A. is 11.37 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 23.09 PLN.
What is the quality score of MIL?
Bank Millennium S.A. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11.37 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.53 PLN, optimistic scenario 14.20 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bank Millennium S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11.37 PLN, about −51% upside versus a price of 23.09 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8.53 PLN, optimistic scenario 14.20 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
Bank Millennium S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.0B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bank Millennium S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -34.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MIL use?
Our models discount Bank Millennium S.A. at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bank Millennium S.A. that is -34.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bank Millennium S.A. grew +13.9 % a year. The price currently implies -34.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bank Millennium S.A. (-34.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 47.70 %: that much free cash flow Bank Millennium S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bank Millennium S.A. it is 11.37 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 23.09 PLN. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bank Millennium S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MIL trades above its calculated fair value: price 23.09 PLN, fair value 11.37 PLN, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (23.09 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11.37 PLN). For Bank Millennium S.A. the two are 11.72 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bank Millennium S.A. worth?
The market values Bank Millennium S.A. at about 28.0B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 23.09 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 11.37 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MIL?
Our models span a range for Bank Millennium S.A.: cautious scenario 8.53 PLN, base 11.37 PLN, optimistic 14.20 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 23.09 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MIL?
Bank Millennium S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 11.37 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 0.8, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MIL?
The PEG ratio of Bank Millennium S.A. is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bank Millennium S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.1%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MIL from its 52-week high?
Bank Millennium S.A. trades at 23.09 PLN, about 1% below its 52-week high of 23.29 PLN and 60% above the low of 14.39 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11.37 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bank Millennium S.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bank Millennium S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 23.09 PLN, calculated fair value 11.37 PLN (−51%), Quality Score 56/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MIL calculated?
We run Bank Millennium S.A. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 11.37 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Bank Millennium S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 23.09 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 11.37 PLN, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bank Millennium S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (14.20 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL) come from?
Earnings per share at Bank Millennium S.A. grew +1.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.0 %, EBIT margin −5.4 %, tax rate −2.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Bank Millennium S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
The market capitalisation of Bank Millennium S.A. is 28.0B PLN (≈ $7.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bank Millennium S.A. is 3.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
Earnings per share at Bank Millennium S.A. are 1.09 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
The net margin of Bank Millennium S.A. is 16.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bank Millennium S.A. is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bank Millennium S.A. is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
The operating margin of Bank Millennium S.A. is 45.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
Revenue at Bank Millennium S.A. is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL)?
Earnings per share at Bank Millennium S.A. are growing +67.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bank Millennium S.A. (MIL) carry?
The net debt of Bank Millennium S.A. is 4.8B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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