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Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Modelon AB (publ) SEK 0.85, price SEK 8.00, upside -89.4%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · SE

MA Thin data Sep 28, 2026

Modelon AB (publ)

MODEL · ST

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value kr 0.8500 · Strongly overvalued (−89.4%)
!Quality 39/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -47.4% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 45.40 kr 6.50 Fair Value kr 0.8500 Apr 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 6.50 – kr 45.40 · fair‑value band kr 0.5600 – kr 1.06 · the kr 8.00 price screens above the kr 0.8500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Modelon AB (publ) provides systems modeling and simulation software solutions in Sweden and internationally. Its flagship product is Modelon Impact, a cloud-native system simulation software platform with a browser-based interface, and models and components for various applications.

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Modelon AB (publ) provides systems modeling and simulation software solutions in Sweden and internationally. Its flagship product is Modelon Impact, a cloud-native system simulation software platform with a browser-based interface, and models and components for various applications. The company also offers Modelon Library Suite, a suite of libraries for physical system modeling; and FMI Toolbox for MATLAB/Simulink that supports workflows in control system development and system integration for virtual prototyping. In addition, it provides consulting and training services. The company serves automotive, aerospace, energy and power, HVAC and refrigeration, industrial equipment, and academia and research industries. Modelon AB (publ) was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Lund, Sweden.

Stock analysis

Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL) currently trades at kr 8.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 0.8500, 89.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: kr 0.5600 (bear) to kr 1.06 (bull), the price of kr 8.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Modelon AB (publ) reported revenue of 71.5M SEK in FY2025 versus 68.9M SEK in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was −32.6M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 172M SEK (≈ $17.1M) · P/S ratio 2.60 · EPS (TTM) kr −1.77 · Net margin −45.6% · Return on equity −101% · Return on assets (EBIT) −39.8% · Operating margin −47.4% · Revenue (TTM) 66.3M SEK.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −89%, MODEL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 0.5600 Fair Value kr 0.8500 Bull kr 1.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.9100 kr 1.22 kr 1.83 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.9100 kr 1.22 kr 1.83 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 15
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 30
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.0% (2020) → −38.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MODEL screens overvalued: fair value 89% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 699 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −89.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −23.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −47.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −47.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −25.5% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.51× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.26× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €186.74 €172.46 −8%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $229.57 $342.73 +49%
Shopify Inc SHOP $144.01 $64.36 −55%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $134.01 $147.41 +10%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.36 $103.69 +49%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $330.31 $74.36 −77%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $261.80 $150.01 −43%
Adobe Inc ADBE $239.94 $454.04 +89%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $268.70 $32.52 −88%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $326.70 $225.48 −31%

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Modelon AB (publ) · Fair Value
kr 0.8500 −89%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Modelon AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MODEL

Frequently asked questions

Is Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 0.8500 versus a price of kr 8.00, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MODEL?
Our model-based fair value for Modelon AB (publ) is kr 0.8500 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 8.00.
What is the quality score of MODEL?
Modelon AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 0.8500 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 0.5600, optimistic scenario kr 1.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Modelon AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 0.8500, about −89% upside versus a price of kr 8.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 0.5600, optimistic scenario kr 1.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
Modelon AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 66.3M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Modelon AB (publ) it is kr 0.8500 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of kr 8.00. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Modelon AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, MODEL trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 8.00, fair value kr 0.8500, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MODEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 8.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 0.8500). For Modelon AB (publ) the two are kr 7.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Modelon AB (publ) worth?
The market values Modelon AB (publ) at about 172M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is kr 8.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 0.8500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MODEL?
Our models span a range for Modelon AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 0.5600, base kr 0.8500, optimistic kr 1.06 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price kr 8.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Modelon AB (publ) (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −100.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MODEL from its 52-week high?
Modelon AB (publ) trades at kr 8.00, about 38% below its 52-week high of kr 12.90 and 23% above the low of kr 6.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 0.8500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Modelon AB (publ)?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Modelon AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price kr 8.00, calculated fair value kr 0.8500 (−89%), Quality Score 39/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MODEL calculated?
We run Modelon AB (publ) through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 0.8500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Modelon AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was kr 8.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 0.8500, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Modelon AB (publ) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 1.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 0.5600 to kr 1.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Modelon AB (publ)

How large is the market capitalisation of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
The market capitalisation of Modelon AB (publ) is 172M SEK (≈ $17.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Modelon AB (publ) is 2.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
Earnings per share at Modelon AB (publ) are kr −1.77. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
The net margin of Modelon AB (publ) is −45.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Modelon AB (publ) is −101% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Modelon AB (publ) is −39.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
The operating margin of Modelon AB (publ) is −47.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL)?
Revenue at Modelon AB (publ) is growing −25.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL) generate?
The free cash flow of Modelon AB (publ) is −37.5M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Modelon AB (publ) (MODEL) hold?
Modelon AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 42.1M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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