Shopify Inc (SHOP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Shopify Inc $64.36, price $151, upside -57.5%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.67 – $179.01 · fair‑value band $41.26 – $112.22 · the $151.39 price screens above the $64.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 5, 2026.
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Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
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Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The Company offers Shopify platform that enables merchants to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics, and reporting and access financing for running their business across all of their sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces. It also provides Shopify Payments, a fully integrated payment processing service that allows merchants to accept and process payment cards online and offline. In addition, the company engages in the sale of themes and apps; shipping labels through Shopify Shipping; point-of-sale hardware; advertising on the Shopify App Store; and Shop Campaigns for buyer acquisitions, as well as registration of domain names. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Ottawa, Canada.
Stock analysis
Shopify Inc (SHOP) currently trades at $151.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.36, 57.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $51.01 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $151.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.40, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $41.26 (bear) to $112.22 (bull), the price of $151.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Shopify Inc reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −19.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $196B · P/E ratio 96.2 · P/S ratio 10.2 · EPS (TTM) $1.48 · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin 17.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −57%, SHOP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $41.26Fair Value $64.36Bull $112.22
Price $151.39 · Upside -57.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +49.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 13%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+45.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.5% a year for the price and +20.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 670 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−57.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth33.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)96.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B14.58× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)14.81× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF97.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA81.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.73× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 41
PAST (return on equity)62· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shopify Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHOP
Frequently asked questions
Is Shopify Inc (SHOP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.36 versus a price of $151.39, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHOP?
Our model-based fair value for Shopify Inc is $64.36 (as of Oct 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $151.39.
What is the quality score of SHOP?
Shopify Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.36 (as of Oct 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.26, optimistic scenario $112.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shopify Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.36, about −57% upside versus a price of $151.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $41.26, optimistic scenario $112.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
Shopify Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shopify Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +45.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.6 % per year. As of Oct 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHOP use?
Our models discount Shopify Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shopify Inc that is +45.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shopify Inc (SHOP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shopify Inc grew +31.6 % a year. The price currently implies +45.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shopify Inc (SHOP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shopify Inc (+45.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.02 %: that much free cash flow Shopify Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shopify Inc it is $64.36 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026), against a price of $151.39. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shopify Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 5, 2026, SHOP trades above its calculated fair value: price $151.39, fair value $64.36, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHOP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($151.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.36). For Shopify Inc the two are $87.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shopify Inc worth?
The market values Shopify Inc at about $196B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 5, 2026). Per share that is $151.39; our models calculate a fair value of $64.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHOP?
Our models span a range for Shopify Inc: cautious scenario $41.26, base $64.36, optimistic $112.22 per share (as of Oct 5, 2026, price $151.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHOP?
Shopify Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 96.2 (as of Oct 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.36 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 149.9 (reported for FY2025: 161.1). Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 14.6, P/S 14.8, EV/EBITDA 81.4.
What is the PEG ratio of SHOP?
The PEG ratio of Shopify Inc is 1.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shopify Inc (as of Oct 5, 2026): return on equity 15.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHOP from its 52-week high?
Shopify Inc trades at $151.39, about 15% below its 52-week high of $179.01 and 59% above the low of $95.40 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shopify Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shopify Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 5, 2026: price $151.39, calculated fair value $64.36 (−57%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHOP calculated?
We run Shopify Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shopify Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $151.39. Our model-based fair value is $64.36, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shopify Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($112.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($41.26 to $112.22). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shopify Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
The market capitalisation of Shopify Inc is $196B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shopify Inc is 10.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
Earnings per share at Shopify Inc are $1.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 96.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
The net margin of Shopify Inc is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shopify Inc is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shopify Inc is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
The operating margin of Shopify Inc is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
Revenue at Shopify Inc is growing +33.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shopify Inc (SHOP)?
Earnings per share at Shopify Inc are growing +68.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shopify Inc (SHOP) hold?
Shopify Inc holds more cash than debt, $1.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 5, 2026