Shopify Inc (SHOP) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $160B
Shopify Inc
SHOP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $20.19 to $17.16 (−15.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +21.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 88% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.67 – $179.01 · fair‑value band $13.09 – $21.45 · the $147.44 price screens above the $17.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Shopify Inc (SHOP) currently trades at $147.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.16, implying the stock looks roughly 88.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shopify Inc generated revenue of $12.4B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 34.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.09 (bear case) to $21.45 (bull case); at $147.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -88%, SHOP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($45.52) versus Asset-Based ($7.40). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
Full company description
Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The Company offers Shopify platform that enables merchants to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics, and reporting and access financing for running their business across all of their sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces. It also provides Shopify Payments, a fully integrated payment processing service that allows merchants to accept and process payment cards online and offline. In addition, the company engages in the sale of themes and apps; shipping labels through Shopify Shipping; point-of-sale hardware; advertising on the Shopify App Store; and Shop Campaigns for buyer acquisitions, as well as registration of domain names. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Ottawa, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shopify Inc reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −19.4%/yr from FY2021.
SHOP screens 88% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Shopify Q2 Earnings Preview: What To Expect From Upcoming Report
- Shopify (SHOP) Sees 13 Fold AI Order Surge As Congress Probes AI Agents
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
| Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc 688111 | ¥223.50 | ¥67.52 | -70% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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