Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Mogan Enerji Yatirim Holding Anonim Sirketi engages in the renewable energy business in Turkey. It generates and sells energy through geothermal, hydroelectric, wind, and solar power plants. Mogan Enerji Yatirim Holding Anonim Sirketi was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Ankara, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN) currently trades at 13.34 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.24 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 17.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 22.60 TRY per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the 13.34 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 8.78 TRY, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 8.99 TRY (bear) to 30.90 TRY (bull), the price of 13.34 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As reported revenue of 13.9B TRY in FY2023 versus 2.1B TRY in FY2020, a compound +89.1%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B TRY in FY2023, compounding +75.4%/yr from FY2020. FY2020 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 40.1B TRY (≈ $827M) · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) 1.07 TRY · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity −11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin −11.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 22%, MOGAN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 8.99 TRYFair Value 16.24 TRYBull 30.90 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+89.1%
’20
’21
’22
’23
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 12%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−33% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−66% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.56× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MOGAN
Frequently asked questions
Is Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.24 TRY versus a price of 13.34 TRY, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MOGAN?
Our model-based fair value for Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is 16.24 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.34 TRY.
What is the quality score of MOGAN?
Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.24 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.99 TRY, optimistic scenario 30.90 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.24 TRY, about +22% upside versus a price of 13.34 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 8.99 TRY, optimistic scenario 30.90 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.9B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As would have to grow free cash flow by +18.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +89.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MOGAN use?
Our models discount Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As that is +18.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As grew +89.1 % a year. The price currently implies +18.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (+18.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.41 %: that much free cash flow Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As it is 16.24 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 13.34 TRY. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, MOGAN trades below its calculated fair value: price 13.34 TRY, fair value 16.24 TRY, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MOGAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.34 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.24 TRY). For Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As the two are 2.90 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As worth?
The market values Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As at about 40.1B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 13.34 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 16.24 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MOGAN?
Our models span a range for Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As: cautious scenario 8.99 TRY, base 16.24 TRY, optimistic 30.90 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 13.34 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MOGAN?
Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.24 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −11.4%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MOGAN from its 52-week high?
Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As trades at 13.34 TRY, about 32% below its 52-week high of 19.65 TRY and 67% above the low of 8.01 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.24 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 13.34 TRY, calculated fair value 16.24 TRY (+22%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MOGAN calculated?
We run Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.24 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
The closing price on Sep 14, 2026 was 13.34 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 16.24 TRY, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As right now?
The model range is unusually wide (8.99 TRY to 30.90 TRY). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As
How large is the market capitalisation of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
The market capitalisation of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is 40.1B TRY (≈ $827M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
Earnings per share at Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As are 1.07 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
The net margin of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is 9.1% (fiscal year 2023). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is −11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is 2.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
The operating margin of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is −11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN)?
Revenue at Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is growing −5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +89.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As (MOGAN) carry?
The net debt of Mogan Enerji Yatırım Holding As is 31.2B TRY (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 10.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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