Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors
Data-driven stock valuation
Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free
Discover now →
Mercari, Inc (MRCIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Mercari, Inc $18.48, price $30.57, upside -39.6%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
- Add to watchlist
MI
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Mercari, Inc
MRCIF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $18.48 · Strongly overvalued (−39.6%)
!Quality 49/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +20.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.7% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
✓Wide moat 71/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Watch Mercari, Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.
Watch for free
Pro now: $1 first month
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.32 – $61.80 · fair‑value band $11.22 – $29.16 · the $30.57 price screens above the $18.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Mercari, Inc. plans, develops, and operates Mercari marketplace applications in Japan and the United States. The company also engages in the payment, finance, and cryptoasset related businesses. Mercari, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mercari, Inc (MRCIF) currently trades at $30.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.48, 39.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $37.09 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $30.57 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.55, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.22 (bear) to $29.16 (bull), the price of $30.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Mercari, Inc reported revenue of ¥193B in FY2025 versus ¥106B in FY2021, a compound +16.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥26.1B in FY2025, compounding +46.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.2B · P/E ratio 30.3 · P/S ratio 4.10 · EPS (TTM) $1.01 · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 33.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 24.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −40%, MRCIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.22
Fair Value $18.48
Bull $29.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.01 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
$10.10
$11.47
$12.65
74
ROIC Compounder
$11.92
$15.93
$21.16
72
Owner Earnings
$17.51
$37.09
$76.68
71
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$17.51
$37.09
$76.68
71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$6.82
$47.54
$66.72
63
Lynch FV
$15.79
$22.56
$29.32
61
PEG = 1.0
$15.79
$22.56
$29.32
57
EPV
$10.10
$11.47
$12.65
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$16.54
$22.06
$27.57
63
P/S Multiple
$6.66
$8.87
$11.09
58
P/B Multiple
$11.43
$15.24
$19.05
55
EV/EBIT
$15.84
$20.64
$25.45
66
EV/EBITDA
$11.66
$15.08
$18.49
67
EV/Revenue
$7.62
$10.28
$12.94
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.91
$2.55
$3.81
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.28
$8.92
$18.43
65
ROIC Compounder
$11.92
$15.93
$21.16
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$21.27
$30.39
$39.50
67
Notify me when MRCIF reaches fair value
Put MRCIF on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
49/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Profitability
51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
78
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.8%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+43.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+43.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−25% → 15%
2025 sits 98% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
MRCIF screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Compare Mercari, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $249.15 | $127.33 | −49% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $107.54 | $66.62 | −38% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,725 | $1,897 | +10% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $178.39 | $196.23 | +10% |
| Sea Limited SE | $95.27 | $129.32 | +36% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $107.32 | $118.05 | +10% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | $26.30 | $33.32 | +27% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $13.88 | $4.96 | −64% |
| Wayfair Inc W | $102.56 | $34.72 | −66% |
| Allegro.eu S.A ALE | 49.56 PLN | 54.51 PLN | +10% |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
All undervalued stocks
TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
🥇 Backtested Best
🏆 Big Names
⭐ Top Rated
💎 Quality on Sale
🚀 Profitable Growth
🧊 Quality Compounders
💵 Dividend Stars
📈 Strong Momentum
📉 Fallen Angels
⚖️ Deeply Undervalued
🔍 Small-Cap Gems
🏰 Moat at a Fair Price
💼 Insider Buying
🎩 Buffett-Style Quality
📚 Peter Lynch GARP
🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula
🛡️ Graham Defensive
Discover tools
Stock screenerFilter by region, size and sector
Compare toolTwo stocks side by side
Extrinsic Value Calculator…Calculator with industry benchmark
Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula &…Calculator with industry benchmark
Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
Frequently asked questions
Is Mercari, Inc (MRCIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.48 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $30.57, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRCIF?
Our model-based fair value for Mercari, Inc is $18.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $30.57.
What is the quality score of MRCIF?
Mercari, Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.22, optimistic scenario $29.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mercari, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.48, about −40% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $30.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.22, optimistic scenario $29.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
Mercari, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥216B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mercari, Inc it is $18.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $30.57. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mercari, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MRCIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.57, fair value $18.48, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRCIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.48). For Mercari, Inc the two are $12.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mercari, Inc worth?
The market values Mercari, Inc at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $30.57; our models calculate a fair value of $18.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRCIF?
Our models span a range for Mercari, Inc: cautious scenario $11.22, base $18.48, optimistic $29.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $30.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRCIF?
Mercari, Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.7, P/B 4.1, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of MRCIF?
The PEG ratio of Mercari, Inc is 4.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mercari, Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 33.0%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRCIF from its 52-week high?
Mercari, Inc trades at $30.57, at its 52-week high of $30.57 and 93% above the low of $15.88 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mercari, Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mercari, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $30.57, calculated fair value $18.48 (−40%), Quality Score 49/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRCIF calculated?
We run Mercari, Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mercari, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $30.57. Our model-based fair value is $18.48, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mercari, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($11.22 to $29.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Mercari, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
The market capitalisation of Mercari, Inc is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mercari, Inc is 4.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
Earnings per share at Mercari, Inc are $1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
The net margin of Mercari, Inc is 13.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mercari, Inc is 33.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mercari, Inc is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
The operating margin of Mercari, Inc is 24.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
Revenue at Mercari, Inc is growing +22.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mercari, Inc (MRCIF)?
Earnings per share at Mercari, Inc are growing +103% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mercari, Inc (MRCIF) generate?
The free cash flow of Mercari, Inc is −¥12.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Mercari, Inc (MRCIF) carry?
The net debt of Mercari, Inc is ¥46.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Mercari, Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Mercari, Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.