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Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Metrovacesa S.A $22.64, price $10.50, upside +115.6%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Metrovacesa S.A
MRVCF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
Fair value $22.64 · Strongly undervalued (+115.6%)
Quality 72/100
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +37.1 %/yr in EUR)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Broad data
Thin margins · 8.0% net margin (TTM)
Moderate moat 47/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.60 – $10.50 · fair‑value band $14.08 – $33.44 · the $10.50 price screens below the $22.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Metrovacesa S.A. operates as a real estate development company in Spain. The company develops and sells residential and commercial premises, as well as selling land. Metrovacesa S.A. was founded in 1918 and is based in Madrid, Spain.
Stock analysis
Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF) currently trades at $10.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.64, implying the stock looks roughly 53.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $21.45 per share, and 8 of the 14 models we run sit above the $10.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.04, and 6 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.08 (bear) to $33.44 (bull), the price of $10.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Metrovacesa S.A reported revenue of €708M in FY2025 versus €511M in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was €56.9M in FY2025, compounding +32.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 87.5 · P/S ratio 7.02 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin 24.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 116%, MRVCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.08
Fair Value $22.64
Bull $33.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0911 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$20.60
$33.99
$66.86
76
Residual Income
$7.36
$7.11
$7.24
76
Growth DCF
$19.67
$36.27
$63.45
75
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$20.60
$33.99
$66.86
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$10.03
$16.28
$25.77
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$11.24
$18.95
$30.17
73
10Y Revenue Exit
$13.40
$21.45
$31.56
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$14.35
$23.43
$37.81
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$5.38
$7.18
$8.97
58
P/B Multiple
$5.38
$7.18
$8.97
55
EV/EBIT
$9.00
$12.30
$15.61
66
EV/EBITDA
$6.86
$9.45
$12.05
67
EV/Revenue
$4.55
$6.89
$9.24
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.25
$7.04
$10.50
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$19.67
$36.27
$63.45
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$10.03
$16.75
$26.38
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$7.36
$7.11
$7.24
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
72/100
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
71
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
91
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−89% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.2% a year for the price.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 | HK$107.10 | HK$155.14 | +45% |
| China Resources Land Limited 1109 | HK$28.64 | HK$71.60 | +150% |
| Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM | 69,100 VND | 76,010 VND | +10% |
| CK Asset Holdings 1113 | HK$45.90 | HK$71.49 | +56% |
| Hongkong Land Holdings H78 | $8.57 | $1.52 | −82% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹658.40 | ₹167.48 | −75% |
| China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 | HK$12.42 | HK$22.33 | +80% |
| Sino Land Company 0083 | HK$9.94 | HK$7.28 | −27% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,165 | ₹274.14 | −76% |
| Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 | ¥5.77 | ¥5.87 | +2% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.64 versus a price of $10.50, about +116% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MRVCF?
Our model-based fair value for Metrovacesa S.A is $22.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.50.
What is the quality score of MRVCF?
Metrovacesa S.A has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.08, optimistic scenario $33.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metrovacesa S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.64, about +116% upside versus a price of $10.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.08, optimistic scenario $33.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
Metrovacesa S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €708M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metrovacesa S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +37.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRVCF use?
Our models discount Metrovacesa S.A at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Metrovacesa S.A that is -6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Metrovacesa S.A grew +37.1 % a year. The price currently implies -6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Metrovacesa S.A (-6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.35 %: that much free cash flow Metrovacesa S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metrovacesa S.A it is $22.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $10.50. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metrovacesa S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MRVCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.50, fair value $22.64, a gap of about +116% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRVCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.64). For Metrovacesa S.A the two are $12.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metrovacesa S.A worth?
The market values Metrovacesa S.A at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $10.50; our models calculate a fair value of $22.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRVCF?
Our models span a range for Metrovacesa S.A: cautious scenario $14.08, base $22.64, optimistic $33.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $10.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is MRVCF from its 52-week high?
Metrovacesa S.A trades at $10.50, at its 52-week high of $10.50 and 27% above the low of $8.28 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metrovacesa S.A?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metrovacesa S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $10.50, calculated fair value $22.64 (+116%), Quality Score 72/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRVCF calculated?
We run Metrovacesa S.A through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Metrovacesa S.A currently trades 54 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $10.50. Our model-based fair value is $22.64, about +116% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metrovacesa S.A right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($14.08 to $33.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Metrovacesa S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
The market capitalisation of Metrovacesa S.A is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Metrovacesa S.A is 87.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metrovacesa S.A is 7.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
Earnings per share at Metrovacesa S.A are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 87.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
The net margin of Metrovacesa S.A is 8.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metrovacesa S.A is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metrovacesa S.A is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
The operating margin of Metrovacesa S.A is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
Revenue at Metrovacesa S.A is growing +36.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF)?
Earnings per share at Metrovacesa S.A are growing +500% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Metrovacesa S.A (MRVCF) carry?
The net debt of Metrovacesa S.A is €274M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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