Mission Bancorp (MSBC) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $316M

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

• The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $16.51 – $112.00 · fair‑value band $85.98 – $143.31 · the $112.00 price screens below the $114.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Mission Bancorp (MSBC) currently trades at $112.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $114.65, implying the stock looks roughly 2.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Mission Bancorp generated revenue of $81.7M at a net margin of 33.7%. Revenue grew 7.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $142M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $85.98 (bear case) to $143.31 (bull case); at $112.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 2%, MSBC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($100.46) versus Dividend Discount ($2.62). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Mission Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Mission Bank that provides various banking products and services to individual and corporate clients in California. The company accepts various checking and savings, NOW, money market, fiduciary, and individual retirement accounts, as well as time deposits and certificates of deposit.

Full company description

Mission Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Mission Bank that provides various banking products and services to individual and corporate clients in California. The company accepts various checking and savings, NOW, money market, fiduciary, and individual retirement accounts, as well as time deposits and certificates of deposit. It also provides commercial loans, such as lines of credit, equipment and vehicle financing, permanent working capital or debt refinance, commercial real estate loans, construction financing, and letters of credit; and agricultural loans, including operating/crop lines of credit, cattle loans, equipment loans, real estate loans, and loans for farmer. In addition, the company offers SBA loans; and debit and credit cards. Further, the company provides merchant card processing, online cash management, remote deposit capture, sweep and zero balance account, treasury management, bill pay, and online and mobile banking services; and cash vault services. It company operates full-service facilities located in Shafter, Bakersfield, Lancaster, Ventura, Stockton, San Luis Obispo, and Visalia, California. Mission Bancorp was founded in 1998 and is based in Bakersfield, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Mission Bancorp reported revenue of $113M in FY2025 versus $52.7M in FY2021, a compound +21.1%/yr. Reported net income was $27.1M in FY2025, compounding +9.7%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.