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Mission Bancorp (MSBC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mission Bancorp stock $75.92, price $125, that is 39.3% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

MB Mission Bancorp logo Some data Nov 9, 2026

Mission Bancorp

MSBC · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 39% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 38.8% net margin (TTM)
Quality 44/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +18.7 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Wide moat 65/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value $75.92 · Strongly overvalued
⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$125.00 $16.51 Fair Value $75.92 Jun 2015 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $16.51 – $125.00 · fair‑value band $65.07 – $104.48 · the $125.00 price screens above the $75.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Mission Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Mission Bank that provides various banking products and services to individual and corporate clients in California.

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The company accepts various checking and savings, NOW, money market, fiduciary, and individual retirement accounts, as well as time deposits and certificates of deposit.

It also provides commercial loans, such as lines of credit, equipment and vehicle financing, permanent working capital or debt refinance, commercial real estate loans, construction financing, and letters of credit; and agricultural loans, including operating/crop lines of credit, cattle loans, equipment loans, real estate loans, and loans for farmer.

In addition, the company offers SBA loans; and debit and credit cards.

Further, the company provides merchant card processing, online cash management, remote deposit capture, sweep and zero balance account, treasury management, bill pay, and online and mobile banking services; and cash vault services.

It company operates full-service facilities located in Shafter, Bakersfield, Lancaster, Ventura, Stockton, San Luis Obispo, and Visalia, California. Mission Bancorp was founded in 1998 and is based in Bakersfield, California.

Stock analysis

Mission Bancorp (MSBC) currently trades at $125.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $75.92, 39% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $107.24 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $125.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $47.94, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $65.07 (bear) to $104.48 (bull), the price of $125.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Mission Bancorp reported revenue of $113M in FY2025 versus $52.7M in FY2021, a compound +21.1%/yr. Reported net income was $27.1M in FY2025, compounding +9.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $376M Small · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 4.39 · EPS (TTM) $11.12 · Net margin 38.8% · Return on equity 14.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 56.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −39%, MSBC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $65.07 Fair Value $75.92 Bull $104.48
Price $125.00 · Downside -39.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.54 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $65.07 $75.92 $104.48 71
P/E Multiple $85.73 $114.31 $142.89 63
P/B Multiple $75.12 $100.16 $125.20 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $85.73 $114.31 $142.89 63
P/B Multiple $75.12 $100.16 $125.20 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $35.77 $47.94 $71.54 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $65.07 $75.92 $104.48 71

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 36
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 79
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 27
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 53
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 91
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 74
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 93
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 28
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.1% vs 19.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 34%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

MSBC screens overvalued: fair value 39% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −39.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 14.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 38.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 56.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 7.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 11.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.71× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 4.39× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 13.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)38 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)58 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs MSBC
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs MSBC
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs MSBC
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs MSBC
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs MSBC
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs MSBC
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs MSBC
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs MSBC
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs MSBC
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs MSBC

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Mission Bancorp: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mission Bancorp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSBC

Frequently asked questions

Is Mission Bancorp (MSBC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $75.92 versus a price of $125.00, about 39% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSBC?
Our model-based fair value for Mission Bancorp is $75.92 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $125.00.
What is the quality score of MSBC?
Mission Bancorp has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $75.92 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $65.07, optimistic scenario $104.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mission Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $75.92, about 39% lower versus a price of $125.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $65.07, optimistic scenario $104.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
Mission Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $85.5M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mission Bancorp it is $75.92 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $125.00. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Mission Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, MSBC trades above its calculated fair value: price $125.00, fair value $75.92, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSBC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($125.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($75.92). For Mission Bancorp the two are $49.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mission Bancorp worth?
The market values Mission Bancorp at about $376M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $125.00; our models calculate a fair value of $75.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSBC?
Our models span a range for Mission Bancorp: cautious scenario $65.07, base $75.92, optimistic $104.48 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $125.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSBC?
Mission Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $75.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mission Bancorp (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 14.6%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSBC from its 52-week high?
Mission Bancorp trades at $125.00, at its 52-week high of $125.00 and 41% above the low of $88.60 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $75.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mission Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mission Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $125.00, calculated fair value $75.92 (−39%), Quality Score 44/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSBC calculated?
We run Mission Bancorp through 4 models from 3 families: Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $75.92 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mission Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $125.00. Our model-based fair value is $75.92, about 39% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mission Bancorp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($104.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mission Bancorp (MSBC) come from?
Earnings per share at Mission Bancorp grew +22.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.8 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Mission Bancorp

How large is the market capitalisation of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
The market capitalisation of Mission Bancorp is $376M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mission Bancorp is 4.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
Earnings per share at Mission Bancorp are $11.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
The net margin of Mission Bancorp is 38.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mission Bancorp is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mission Bancorp is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
The operating margin of Mission Bancorp is 56.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
Revenue at Mission Bancorp is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mission Bancorp (MSBC)?
Earnings per share at Mission Bancorp are growing +5.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mission Bancorp (MSBC) generate?
The free cash flow of Mission Bancorp is $27.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mission Bancorp (MSBC) hold?
Mission Bancorp holds more cash than debt, $142M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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