Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $970M
Middlesex Water Company
MSEX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +6.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($19.60 to $35.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.35 – $109.78 · fair‑value band $19.60 – $35.94 · the $58.22 price screens above the $26.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) currently trades at $58.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.13, implying the stock looks roughly 55.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Middlesex Water Company generated revenue of $199M at a net margin of 22.1%. Revenue grew 10.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at $416M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.60 (bear case) to $35.94 (bull case); at $58.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -55%, MSEX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($35.81) versus Economic Profit ($3.70). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Middlesex Water Company owns and operates regulated water utility and wastewater systems in the United States. It operates in two segments, Regulated and Non-Regulated.
Full company description
Middlesex Water Company owns and operates regulated water utility and wastewater systems in the United States. It operates in two segments, Regulated and Non-Regulated. The company collects, treats, and distributes water on a retail and wholesale basis to residential, commercial, industrial, and fire protection customers; and provides regulated wastewater system. It also provides non-regulated contract services for the operation and maintenance of municipal and private water and wastewater systems. Middlesex Water Company was incorporated in 1896 and is headquartered in Iselin, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Middlesex Water Company reported revenue of $195M in FY2025 versus $143M in FY2021, a compound +8.0%/yr. Reported net income was $42.8M in FY2025, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2021.
MSEX screens 55% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Middlesex Water Company to Report Second Quarter 2026 Earnings on July 30
- Middlesex Water Company Reports First Quarter 2026 Earnings
- Middlesex Water Company Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $134.33 | $65.80 | -51% |
| SBSP3 SBSP3 | R$29.22 | R$31.23 | +7% |
| SBS SBS | $5.79 | $5.21 | -10% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $38.59 | $21.81 | -43% |
| CSMG3 CSMG3 | R$66.10 | R$60.17 | -9% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.42 | ¥33.29 | +13% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $85.01 | $48.02 | -44% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥6.97 | ¥10.74 | +54% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $49.73 | $33.56 | -33% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.12 | ¥2.77 | -33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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