Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp stock $7.04, price $313, that is 97.8% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $136.66 – $416.34 · fair‑value band $5.28 – $8.80 · the $312.90 price screens above the $7.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. operates as a professional sports company in the United States. The company owns and operates a portfolio of assets that consists of the New York Knickerbockers of the National Basketball Association (NBA) and the New York Rangers of the National Hockey League.
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Its other professional franchises include development league teams, the Hartford Wolf Pack of the American Hockey League and the Westchester Knicks of the NBA G League. It also operates the Madison Square Garden Training Center, a professional sports team performance center in Greenburgh.
The company was formerly known as The Madison Square Garden Company. Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS) currently trades at $312.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.04, 97.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $23.36 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $312.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.22, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.28 (bear) to $8.80 (bull), the price of $312.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $821M in FY2022, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $7.8M in FY2026, compounding −37.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $9.3B Mid · P/E ratio 978.1 · P/S ratio 8.02 · EPS (TTM) $0.3199 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity −12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −98%, MSGS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.3100 to $52.10). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$5.28Fair Value $7.04Bull$8.80
Price $312.90 · Downside -97.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1096 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−31.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−31.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Per share before 2020divided by the spin-off factor 1.402
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−19% → 3%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +40.1% a year for the price and −1.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business shows limited durable advantages with thin public signals overall, while its main weakness remains negative equity and a recent net loss despite the upcoming split into separate entities.
Main risk: The split into two public companies under one leader risks divided attention at the top that would hit coordinated execution and strategic focus across the sports operations.
The planned split will turn the combined Knicks and Rangers operations into two standalone public companies with their own strategies. The same leader is set to run both entities afterward. Does that arrangement strengthen execution across the businesses or risk divided attention at the top?
Compare Madison Square Garden Sports Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 226 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−97.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets0.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)11.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)978.1× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)8.02× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow160.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 4
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.04 versus a price of $312.90, about 98% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSGS?
Our model-based fair value for Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is $7.04 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $312.90.
What is the quality score of MSGS?
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.04 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.28, optimistic scenario $8.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Madison Square Garden Sports Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.04, about 98% lower versus a price of $312.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.28, optimistic scenario $8.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Madison Square Garden Sports Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +43.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.7 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MSGS use?
Our models discount Madison Square Garden Sports Corp at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Madison Square Garden Sports Corp that is +43.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Madison Square Garden Sports Corp grew +22.7 % a year. The price currently implies +43.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (+43.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.76 %: that much free cash flow Madison Square Garden Sports Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Madison Square Garden Sports Corp it is $7.04 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $312.90. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Madison Square Garden Sports Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, MSGS trades above its calculated fair value: price $312.90, fair value $7.04, a gap of about −98% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSGS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($312.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.04). For Madison Square Garden Sports Corp the two are $305.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Madison Square Garden Sports Corp worth?
The market values Madison Square Garden Sports Corp at about $9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $312.90; our models calculate a fair value of $7.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSGS?
Our models span a range for Madison Square Garden Sports Corp: cautious scenario $5.28, base $7.04, optimistic $8.80 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $312.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (as of Nov 2, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSGS from its 52-week high?
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp trades at $312.90, about 25% below its 52-week high of $416.34 and 47% above the low of $212.91 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Madison Square Garden Sports Corp?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, Universal Music Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Madison Square Garden Sports Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $312.90, calculated fair value $7.04 (−98%), Quality Score 63/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSGS calculated?
We run Madison Square Garden Sports Corp through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Madison Square Garden Sports Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $312.90. Our model-based fair value is $7.04, about 98% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Madison Square Garden Sports Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
The market capitalisation of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is $9.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is 978.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is 8.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
Earnings per share at Madison Square Garden Sports Corp are $0.3199 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 978.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
The net margin of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is −12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
The operating margin of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
Revenue at Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is growing +36.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS)?
Earnings per share at Madison Square Garden Sports Corp are growing +645% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Madison Square Garden Sports Corp (MSGS) carry?
The net debt of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp is $979M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 16.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 2, 2026