Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mitchell Services Ltd stock A$0.48, price A$0.67, upside -28.4%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?Yes
In an uptrend?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2083 – A$0.6700 · fair‑value band A$0.3360 – A$0.6265 · the A$0.6700 price screens above the A$0.4795 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Mitchell Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides exploration, and mine site and geotechnical drilling services to the exploration, mining, and energy industries in Australia.
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The company provides drilling services, such as greenfield exploration, project feasibility, mine site exploration and resource definition, development, and production, as well as decarbonisation solutions.
It also offers surface drilling services, including diamond coring, directional, mud rotary, mine services, mineral performance drilling (MPD), geotechnical, water bores, and reverse circulation services.
In addition, it provides underground drilling services comprising diamond coring, directional, underground in seam, mine services, and geotechnical. The company was formerly known as Drill Torque Limited and changed its name to Mitchell Services Limited in December 2013.
Mitchell Services Limited was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Seventeen Mile Rocks, Australia.
Stock analysis
Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV) currently trades at A$0.6700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.4795, 28.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$1.67 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$0.6700 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.2000, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.3360 (bear) to A$0.6265 (bull), the price of A$0.6700 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mitchell Services Ltd reported revenue of A$207M in FY2026 versus A$213M in FY2022, a compound −0.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$15.2M in FY2026, compounding +459.2%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap A$142M (≈ $100M) Micro · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0717 · Dividend yield 9.0% · Net margin 7.3% · Return on equity 23.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 141% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −28%, MSV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.3360Fair Value A$0.4795BullA$0.6265
Price A$0.6700 · Upside -28.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0066 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +40.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 9%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2026, which sits 109% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 376 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−27.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)9.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.06× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.67× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow7.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)51· sector 81
PAST (return on equity)94· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.4795 versus a price of A$0.6700, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSV?
Our model-based fair value for Mitchell Services Ltd is A$0.4795 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.6700.
What is the quality score of MSV?
Mitchell Services Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.4795 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.3360, optimistic scenario A$0.6265. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mitchell Services Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.4795, about −28% upside versus a price of A$0.6700 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.3360, optimistic scenario A$0.6265. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
Mitchell Services Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$210M (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Mitchell Services Ltd pay a dividend?
Mitchell Services Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 8.96% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mitchell Services Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -6.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MSV use?
Our models discount Mitchell Services Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mitchell Services Ltd that is -6.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mitchell Services Ltd grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies -6.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mitchell Services Ltd (-6.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.05 %: that much free cash flow Mitchell Services Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mitchell Services Ltd it is A$0.4795 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of A$0.6700. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mitchell Services Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, MSV trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.6700, fair value A$0.4795, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.6700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.4795). For Mitchell Services Ltd the two are A$0.1905 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mitchell Services Ltd worth?
The market values Mitchell Services Ltd at about A$142M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is A$0.6700; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.4795 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSV?
Our models span a range for Mitchell Services Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.3360, base A$0.4795, optimistic A$0.6265 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price A$0.6700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSV?
Mitchell Services Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.4795 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mitchell Services Ltd (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 23.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSV from its 52-week high?
Mitchell Services Ltd trades at A$0.6700, at its 52-week high of A$0.6700 and 141% above the low of A$0.2778 (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.4795 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mitchell Services Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Boliden AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mitchell Services Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price A$0.6700, calculated fair value A$0.4795 (−28%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSV calculated?
We run Mitchell Services Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.4795, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Mitchell Services Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was A$0.6700. Our model-based fair value is A$0.4795, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mitchell Services Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.6265). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (A$0.3360 to A$0.6265) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Mitchell Services Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
The market capitalisation of Mitchell Services Ltd is A$142M (≈ $100M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mitchell Services Ltd is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
Earnings per share at Mitchell Services Ltd are A$0.0717 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
The dividend yield of Mitchell Services Ltd is 9.0% (payout 83.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
The net margin of Mitchell Services Ltd is 7.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mitchell Services Ltd is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mitchell Services Ltd is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
The operating margin of Mitchell Services Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
Revenue at Mitchell Services Ltd is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV)?
Earnings per share at Mitchell Services Ltd are growing +735% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mitchell Services Ltd (MSV) hold?
Mitchell Services Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$721K net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 28, 2026