M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of M&T Bank Corporation stock $201, price $225, that is 10.7% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $99.29 – $252.46 · fair‑value band $170.69 – $268.96 · the $224.64 price screens above the $200.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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M&T Bank Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company and Wilmington Trust, National Association that provides retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States.
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The company operates through three segments: Commercial Bank, Retail Bank, and Institutional Services and Wealth Management.
It offers a range of credit products and banking services, such as commercial lending and leasing, letters of credits, deposit products, cash management services, commercial real estate loans, and credit facilities secured by various commercial real estate properties to middle-market and large commercial customers.
The company also provides customers deposit products, including demand, savings and time accounts, and other services; automobile and recreational finance loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, credit cards, and other loan products, as well as residential mortgage and real estate loans; business loans, cash management, payroll, direct deposit, and merchant credit card services to consumers and small businesses through branch network, telephone banking, internet banking, and automated teller machines.
In addition, it offers trustee, agency, investment management, and administrative services; personal trust, planning and advisory, fiduciary, asset management, family office, and other services; and investment products, including mutual funds and annuities, and other services for corporations and institutions, investment bankers, corporate tax, finance and legal executives, and other institutional clients.
M&T Bank Corporation was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.
Stock analysis
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) currently trades at $224.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $200.69, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $200.69 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $224.64 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $95.45, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $170.69 (bear) to $268.96 (bull), the price of $224.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
M&T Bank Corporation reported revenue of $12.3B in FY2025 versus $6.1B in FY2021, a compound +19.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.9B in FY2025, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $35.2B Large · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 3.72 · EPS (TTM) $18.92 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 31.9% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −11%, MTB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$170.69Fair Value $200.69Bull$268.96
Price $224.64 · Downside -10.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.97 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $13.1M and none bought.
SaleKevin J PearsonVice Chairman4× since Jun 4, 2026: 29,358 shares, avg. $225.92$6.6MOct 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRene F JonesChairman of the Board and CEO, Director19,396 shares at $239.35$4.6MSep 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRudina SeseriDirector623 shares at $241.05$150,174Aug 21, 2026
SaleJohn R. TaylorEVP and Controller3× since Feb 2, 2026: 3,019 shares, avg. $239.70$723,649Aug 17, 2026
SaleKirk W WaltersDirector2× since Feb 3, 2026: 918 shares, avg. $227.64$209,057Aug 5, 2026
SaleRichard H. Ledgett Jr.Director855 shares at $248.16$212,177Aug 3, 2026
SaleTracy S. WoodrowSr. Executive Vice President2× since Feb 11, 2026: 1,934 shares, avg. $237.76$459,825Jul 1, 2026
SaleChristopher E. KaySr. Executive Vice President2× since Nov 26, 2025: 8,355 shares, avg. $200.92$1.7MMay 7, 2026
SaleMichael A. WislerSr. Executive Vice President8,237 shares at $223.48$1.8MFeb 26, 2026
SaleJohn P BarnesDirector2× since Jan 22, 2026: 39,059 shares, avg. $228.97$8.9MFeb 9, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.9% vs 8.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 30%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.8% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: M&T Bank shows moderate quality with strength in fee-income growth from wealth management and capital markets plus broad loan expansion, yet its main weakness is limited durable advantages amid typical regional-bank constraints and thin evidence.
Main risk: AI agents that help customers move deposits to higher-yield accounts at other institutions could reduce M&T Bank's deposit base and pressure its funding costs and net interest margins.
Bull case: M&T could integrate AI tools to retain deposits through better yield management and personalized offers while meeting new debt rules through efficient capital planning and diversified funding.
Bear case: Widespread use of AI agents combined with stricter debt rules could erode M&T's low-cost deposit franchise and raise ongoing funding expenses, squeezing margins in its core lending and wealth businesses.
M&T Bank expects fee income to reach the upper end of its 2026 range thanks to expansion in wealth management and capital markets. The bank is also guiding for continued broad loan growth while keeping technology and operational spending elevated. Will the gains in noninterest income and lending more than offset the higher costs and any margin pressures in the regional banking environment?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−10.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)31.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)43.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "M&T Bank Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MTB
Frequently asked questions
Is M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $200.69 versus a price of $224.64, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MTB?
Our model-based fair value for M&T Bank Corporation is $200.69 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $224.64.
What is the quality score of MTB?
M&T Bank Corporation has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $200.69 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $170.69, optimistic scenario $268.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the M&T Bank Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $200.69, about 11% lower versus a price of $224.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $170.69, optimistic scenario $268.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
M&T Bank Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does M&T Bank Corporation pay a dividend?
M&T Bank Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.67% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, M&T Bank Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.4 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTB use?
Our models discount M&T Bank Corporation at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For M&T Bank Corporation that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at M&T Bank Corporation grew +14.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into M&T Bank Corporation (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.13 %: that much free cash flow M&T Bank Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For M&T Bank Corporation it is $200.69 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $224.64. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is M&T Bank Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, MTB trades above its calculated fair value: price $224.64, fair value $200.69, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($224.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($200.69). For M&T Bank Corporation the two are $23.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is M&T Bank Corporation worth?
The market values M&T Bank Corporation at about $35.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $224.64; our models calculate a fair value of $200.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTB?
Our models span a range for M&T Bank Corporation: cautious scenario $170.69, base $200.69, optimistic $268.96 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $224.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTB?
M&T Bank Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $200.69 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2022, FY2023 ex one-offs: 12.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.2, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MTB?
The PEG ratio of M&T Bank Corporation is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
Balance-sheet figures for M&T Bank Corporation (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTB from its 52-week high?
M&T Bank Corporation trades at $224.64, about 11% below its 52-week high of $252.46 and 28% above the low of $175.86 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $200.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to M&T Bank Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is M&T Bank Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $224.64, calculated fair value $200.69 (−11%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTB calculated?
We run M&T Bank Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $200.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. M&T Bank Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $224.64. Our model-based fair value is $200.69, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with M&T Bank Corporation right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) come from?
Earnings per share at M&T Bank Corporation grew +8.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.9 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of M&T Bank Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
The market capitalisation of M&T Bank Corporation is $35.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of M&T Bank Corporation is 3.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
Earnings per share at M&T Bank Corporation are $18.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
The dividend yield of M&T Bank Corporation is 2.7% (payout 31.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
The net margin of M&T Bank Corporation is 31.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of M&T Bank Corporation is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of M&T Bank Corporation is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
The operating margin of M&T Bank Corporation is 43.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
Revenue at M&T Bank Corporation is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)?
Earnings per share at M&T Bank Corporation are growing +4.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) hold?
M&T Bank Corporation holds more cash than debt, $5.7B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026