PT Capitalinc Investment Tbk (MTFN) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · ID · Market cap 414B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from 25.02 IDR to 1.78 IDR (−92.9%) since Jun 23, 2026. Share price −18.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 86% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.15 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.00 IDR – 50.00 IDR · fair‑value band 1.41 IDR – 2.15 IDR · the 13.00 IDR price screens above the 1.78 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
PT Capitalinc Investment Tbk (MTFN) currently trades at 13.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.78 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 86.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Capitalinc Investment Tbk generated revenue of 519B IDR at a net margin of -6.1%. Revenue grew 8.4% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 9.2B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.41 IDR (bear case) to 2.15 IDR (bull case); at 13.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 333% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -86%, MTFN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (1.86 IDR) versus Multiples (1.77 IDR). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Capitalinc Investment Tbk operates in the investment sector and oil and gas sector in Indonesia. The company engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas with an area of 5,448.48 square kilometers in the East Kangean; and participates in the exploration, development, and exploitation of petroleum resources covering …
Full company description
PT Capitalinc Investment Tbk operates in the investment sector and oil and gas sector in Indonesia. The company engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas with an area of 5,448.48 square kilometers in the East Kangean; and participates in the exploration, development, and exploitation of petroleum resources covering Seinangka-Senipah Block in East Kalimantan covering an area of 69.84 kilometers square kilometers. It also has an agreement for the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas based on production sharing contract in the Air Komering Block, South Sumatera. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT Capitalinc Investment Tbk is a subsidiary of BFC SPV Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Capitalinc Investment Tbk reported revenue of 519B IDR in FY2025 versus 354B IDR in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was −31.5B IDR in FY2025.
MTFN screens 86% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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