MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MGIC Investment Corp stock $29.94, price $28.60, upside +4.7%, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.32 – $31.47 · fair‑value band $24.87 – $38.85 · the $28.60 price screens below the $29.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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MGIC Investment Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services in the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Guam.
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The company offers primary insurance that provides mortgage default protection on individual loans, as well as covers unpaid loan principal, delinquent interest, and various expenses associated with the default and subsequent foreclosure on the mortgage or sale of the underlying property.
It also provides contract underwriting services, as well as reinsurance services. The company serves originators of residential mortgage loans, including savings institutions, commercial banks, mortgage brokers, credit unions, mortgage bankers, and other lenders.
The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) currently trades at $28.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.94, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $38.07 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $28.60 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.38, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $24.87 (bear) to $38.85 (bull), the price of $28.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
MGIC Investment Corp reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was $738M in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.0B Mid · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 5.05 · EPS (TTM) $3.20 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 59.2% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 78 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 5%, MTG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$24.87Fair Value $29.94Bull$38.85
Price $28.60 · Upside +4.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $15.1M and none bought.
SaleSalvatore A MiosiPresident & COO11× since Dec 1, 2025: 310,931 shares, avg. $27.98$8.7MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleTimothy J. MattkeChief Executive Officer, Director4× since Jan 13, 2026: 552,632 shares, avg. $27.43$15.2MOct 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleNathaniel H ColsonOfficer EVP, CFO & CRO2× since Jun 25, 2026: 40,000 shares, avg. $28.29$1.1MSep 24, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePaula C MaggioEVP and General Counsel3× since Feb 6, 2026: 60,937 shares, avg. $27.75$1.7MAug 7, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.7% vs 15.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.47% → 77%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.3% a year for the price and −1.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Strongest risk-adjusted capitalization backed by AM Best affirmation supports the mortgage insurer yet its narrow single-family focus ties results tightly to housing cycles.
Main risk: Changes to GSE business practices or failure to meet PMIERs or state capital requirements could restrict MGIC's ability to write new mortgage insurance and hit its core revenue from GSE-eligible loans.
Bull case: MGIC could maintain strong capital buffers and lender relationships to retain GSE eligibility while adapting pricing and underwriting to compete effectively with FHA offerings.
Bear case: If GSE reforms tighten eligibility or FHA premiums drop further, MGIC could see sharply lower new insurance written and a shrinking book of business over time.
MGIC Investment focuses on mortgage insurance that supports low-down-payment home loans in the US. Its operating subsidiaries recently received an A financial strength rating affirmation from AM Best with a stable outlook, backed by strongest risk-adjusted capitalization. Yet the narrow focus on single-family mortgage credit leaves performance tied to housing cycles. Will robust capital and underwriting hold up if defaults increase, or could concentrated exposure amplify volatility?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+4.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.9% · Below median
Return on assets11.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)59.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)80.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
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Is MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.94 versus a price of $28.60, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MTG?
Our model-based fair value for MGIC Investment Corp is $29.94 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.60.
What is the quality score of MTG?
MGIC Investment Corp has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $29.94 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.87, optimistic scenario $38.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MGIC Investment Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $29.94, about +5% upside versus a price of $28.60 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $24.87, optimistic scenario $38.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
MGIC Investment Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does MGIC Investment Corp pay a dividend?
MGIC Investment Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 2.10% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
MGIC Investment Corp pays a dividend of $0.6 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.1%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 12, 2026, with payment on Nov 23, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2019. The payout ratio is 18.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 6.92 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MGIC Investment Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.2 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTG use?
Our models discount MGIC Investment Corp at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MGIC Investment Corp that is -8.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MGIC Investment Corp grew +0.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MGIC Investment Corp (-8.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.12 %: that much free cash flow MGIC Investment Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MGIC Investment Corp it is $29.94 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $28.60. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is MGIC Investment Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MTG trades below its calculated fair value: price $28.60, fair value $29.94, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($29.94). For MGIC Investment Corp the two are $1.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MGIC Investment Corp worth?
The market values MGIC Investment Corp at about $6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $28.60; our models calculate a fair value of $29.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTG?
Our models span a range for MGIC Investment Corp: cautious scenario $24.87, base $29.94, optimistic $38.85 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $28.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTG?
MGIC Investment Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $29.94 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 6.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 1.2, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
What is the PEG ratio of MTG?
The PEG ratio of MGIC Investment Corp is 0.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
Balance-sheet figures for MGIC Investment Corp (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 13.9%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTG from its 52-week high?
MGIC Investment Corp trades at $28.60, about 9% below its 52-week high of $31.47 and 16% above the low of $24.72 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $29.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MGIC Investment Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, Medibank Private Limited, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MGIC Investment Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $28.60, calculated fair value $29.94 (+5%), Quality Score 75/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTG calculated?
We run MGIC Investment Corp through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $29.94 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. MGIC Investment Corp currently trades 4% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $28.60. Our model-based fair value is $29.94, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MGIC Investment Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of MGIC Investment Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
The market capitalisation of MGIC Investment Corp is $6.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MGIC Investment Corp is 5.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
Earnings per share at MGIC Investment Corp are $3.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
The dividend yield of MGIC Investment Corp is 2.1% (payout 18.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
The net margin of MGIC Investment Corp is 59.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MGIC Investment Corp is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MGIC Investment Corp is 14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
The operating margin of MGIC Investment Corp is 80.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
Revenue at MGIC Investment Corp is growing −2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)?
Earnings per share at MGIC Investment Corp are growing +6.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) carry?
The net debt of MGIC Investment Corp is $271M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026