MTLN Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · GR · Market cap €5.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +20.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from €32.54 (bear) to €56.08 (bull), base €44.87. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 31/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
12‑month range €31.92 – €55.05 · fair‑value band €32.54 – €56.08 · the €48.38 price screens above the €44.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
MTLN (MTLN) currently trades at €48.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €44.87, implying the stock looks roughly 7.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, MTLN generated revenue of €7.1B at a net margin of 4.4%. Revenue grew 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. Net debt stands at €3.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €32.54 (bear case) to €56.08 (bull case); at €48.38, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -7%, MTLN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€30.99) versus Economic Profit (€6.15). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MTLN reported revenue of €7.1B in FY2025 versus €6.3B in FY2022, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was €314M in FY2025, compounding −12.3%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberdrola, S.A IBE | €21.25 | €9.34 | -56% |
| Enel SpA ENEL | €10.28 | €5.83 | -43% |
| Engie SA 1ENGI | €26.59 | €17.39 | -35% |
| Sempra SRE | $93.15 | $47.77 | -49% |
| E.ON SE EOAN | €19.34 | €11.71 | -39% |
| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE | €56.52 | €29.64 | -48% |
| ACWA Power Company 2082 | 198.20 SAR | 25.38 SAR | -87% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN | C$55.05 | C$17.66 | -68% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €69.00 | €21.11 | -69% |
| EDP, S.A EDP | €4.41 | €3.81 | -14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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