Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mesa Royalty Trust stock $3.09, price $1.93, upside +60.0%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.90 – $25.90 · fair‑value band $2.59 – $3.54 · the $1.93 price screens below the $3.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
Follow Mesa Royalty Trust in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Mesa Royalty Trust is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Mesa Royalty Trust owns overriding royalty interests in various oil and gas producing properties in the United States. It holds interests in oil and gas properties located in the Hugoton field of Kansas; and the San Juan Basin field of northwestern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado.
Show moreShow less
Mesa Royalty Trust was founded in 1979 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) currently trades at $1.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.09, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $2.96 per share, and 10 of the 14 models we run sit above the $1.93 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.05, and 4 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.59 (bear) to $3.54 (bull), the price of $1.93 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Mesa Royalty Trust reported revenue of $602K in FY2025 versus $908K in FY2021, a compound −9.8%/yr. Reported net income was $511K in FY2025, compounding −9.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6M Micro · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 6.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.2000 · Dividend yield 9.2% · Net margin 66.0% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 48.8% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 60%, MTR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.59Fair Value $3.09Bull$3.54
Price $1.93 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0197 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$1.83$2.19$2.8876
EPV$2.97$3.30$3.5970
ROIC Compounder$2.97$3.37$3.7770
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$1.86$2.28$2.5667
EPV$2.97$3.30$3.5970
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$2.24$2.46$2.8069
DDM Multi-Stage$2.24$2.85$3.7467
Multiples
P/E Multiple$2.88$3.84$4.8063
P/S Multiple$0.2900$0.3900$0.480058
P/B Multiple$0.9000$1.20$1.5055
EV/EBIT$2.84$3.42$4.0063
EV/EBITDA$2.28$2.67$3.0664
EV/Revenue$1.38$1.50$1.6252
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.6900$1.05$1.3152
Economic Profit
Residual Income$1.83$2.19$2.8876
ROIC Compounder$2.97$3.37$3.7770
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$2.07$2.96$3.8567
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.2%
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.6% vs −12.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.89% → 71%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 14.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (25 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Return on assets15.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)66.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)75.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−28.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)9.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.09 versus a price of $1.93, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MTR?
Our model-based fair value for Mesa Royalty Trust is $3.09 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.93.
What is the quality score of MTR?
Mesa Royalty Trust has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.09 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.59, optimistic scenario $3.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mesa Royalty Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.09, about +60% upside versus a price of $1.93 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.59, optimistic scenario $3.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Mesa Royalty Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $553K (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Mesa Royalty Trust pay a dividend?
Mesa Royalty Trust currently shows a dividend yield of 9.17% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mesa Royalty Trust pays a dividend of $0.177 per share a year, a dividend yield of 9.2%. The last ex-dividend date was May 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1984. The payout ratio is 88.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mesa Royalty Trust it is $3.09 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $1.93. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mesa Royalty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, MTR trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.93, fair value $3.09, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.09). For Mesa Royalty Trust the two are $1.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mesa Royalty Trust worth?
The market values Mesa Royalty Trust at about $3.6M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $1.93; our models calculate a fair value of $3.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTR?
Our models span a range for Mesa Royalty Trust: cautious scenario $2.59, base $3.09, optimistic $3.54 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $1.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTR?
Mesa Royalty Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.09 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.6. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 6.5, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mesa Royalty Trust (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 11.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTR from its 52-week high?
Mesa Royalty Trust trades at $1.93, about 64% below its 52-week high of $5.31 and 2% above the low of $1.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mesa Royalty Trust?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mesa Royalty Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $1.93, calculated fair value $3.09 (+60%), Quality Score 72/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTR calculated?
We run Mesa Royalty Trust through 14 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.09 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mesa Royalty Trust currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.93. Our model-based fair value is $3.09, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mesa Royalty Trust right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.59). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (72/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Mesa Royalty Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The market capitalisation of Mesa Royalty Trust is $3.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mesa Royalty Trust is 6.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Earnings per share at Mesa Royalty Trust are $0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The dividend yield of Mesa Royalty Trust is 9.2% (payout 88.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The net margin of Mesa Royalty Trust is 66.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mesa Royalty Trust is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mesa Royalty Trust is 48.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The operating margin of Mesa Royalty Trust is 75.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Revenue at Mesa Royalty Trust is growing −28.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −47.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Earnings per share at Mesa Royalty Trust are growing −33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) generate?
The free cash flow of Mesa Royalty Trust is −$78.6M (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) hold?
Mesa Royalty Trust holds more cash than debt, $2.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Mesa Royalty Trust in the live analysis
One click puts Mesa Royalty Trust on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 7, 2026