Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mesa Royalty Trust $3.89, price $2.37, upside +64.1%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.17 – $25.90 · fair‑value band $3.18 – $4.84 · the $2.37 price screens below the $3.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mesa Royalty Trust owns overriding royalty interests in various oil and gas producing properties in the United States. It holds interests in oil and gas properties located in the Hugoton field of Kansas; and the San Juan Basin field of northwestern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado. Mesa Royalty Trust was founded in 1979 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) currently trades at $2.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.89, implying the stock looks roughly 39.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.05 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the $2.37 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.14, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.18 (bear) to $4.84 (bull), the price of $2.37 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Mesa Royalty Trust reported revenue of $602K in FY2025 versus $908K in FY2021, a compound −9.8%/yr. Reported net income was $511K in FY2025, compounding −9.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.3M · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 8.75 · EPS (TTM) $0.2300 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 84.9% · Return on equity 16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 48.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 64%, MTR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.18Fair Value $3.89Bull $4.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1689 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.2%
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8% vs −12%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.89% → 71%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 14.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+64% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)75% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)90% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth59% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.89 versus a price of $2.37, about +64% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MTR?
Our model-based fair value for Mesa Royalty Trust is $3.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.37.
What is the quality score of MTR?
Mesa Royalty Trust has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.18, optimistic scenario $4.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mesa Royalty Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.89, about +64% upside versus a price of $2.37 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.18, optimistic scenario $4.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Mesa Royalty Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $683K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Mesa Royalty Trust pay a dividend?
Mesa Royalty Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mesa Royalty Trust it is $3.89 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $2.37. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mesa Royalty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MTR trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.37, fair value $3.89, a gap of about +64% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.89). For Mesa Royalty Trust the two are $1.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mesa Royalty Trust worth?
The market values Mesa Royalty Trust at about $6.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $2.37; our models calculate a fair value of $3.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTR?
Our models span a range for Mesa Royalty Trust: cautious scenario $3.18, base $3.89, optimistic $4.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $2.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTR?
Mesa Royalty Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 9.2, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mesa Royalty Trust (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTR from its 52-week high?
Mesa Royalty Trust trades at $2.37, about 57% below its 52-week high of $5.53 and 9% above the low of $2.17 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mesa Royalty Trust?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mesa Royalty Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $2.37, calculated fair value $3.89 (+64%), Quality Score 72/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTR calculated?
We run Mesa Royalty Trust through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Mesa Royalty Trust currently trades 64 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $2.37. Our model-based fair value is $3.89, about +64% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mesa Royalty Trust right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Key figures of Mesa Royalty Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The market capitalisation of Mesa Royalty Trust is $6.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mesa Royalty Trust is 8.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Earnings per share at Mesa Royalty Trust are $0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The dividend yield of Mesa Royalty Trust is 6.9% (payout 71.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The net margin of Mesa Royalty Trust is 84.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mesa Royalty Trust is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mesa Royalty Trust is 48.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
The operating margin of Mesa Royalty Trust is 90.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Revenue at Mesa Royalty Trust is growing +58.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −47.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)?
Earnings per share at Mesa Royalty Trust are growing +133% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) generate?
The free cash flow of Mesa Royalty Trust is −$78.6M (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) hold?
Mesa Royalty Trust holds more cash than debt, $2.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 23, 2026