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Metro Inc (MTRAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Metro Inc $68.73, price $62.42, upside +10.1%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Metro Inc
MTRAF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $68.73 · Fairly valued (+10.1%)
✓Quality 69/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.4% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 50/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.90 – $77.43 · fair‑value band $41.50 – $88.85 · the $62.42 price screens below the $68.73 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Metro Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer, franchisor, distributor, and manufacturer in the food and pharmaceutical sectors in Canada.
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Metro Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer, franchisor, distributor, and manufacturer in the food and pharmaceutical sectors in Canada. The company operates supermarkets, discount stores, neighbourhood stores, specialized stores, and pharmacies that provide fresh and grocery products, baked goods, prepared food products, meats, dairy products, fruits and vegetables, frozen food products, bakery products, prepared meals, delicatessen items, fruits and vegetables, frozen products and pastries. It also manufactures ready-to-eat meals, salads, dips, pastries, pies, breads, and cakes; generic drugs under Pro Doc trademark; and provides online grocery shopping services. In addition, the company offers its private label food products under Irresistibles, Selection, Harvest Best, Lucky Koi, Life Smart, Adonis, Phoenicia, and Premiere Moisson brands; and private label drug products comprising beauty and cosmetic products, over-the-counter medications, health & beauty, cosmetics, and baby categories sold under the Personnelle brand name. It operates a network of food stores under various banners, including Metro, Metro Plus, Adonis, Super C, Marché Richelieu, Marché Ami, Première Moisson, Les 5 Saisons, and Food Basics, as well as pharmacies primarily under the PJC Jean Coutu, PJC Santé, PJC Santé Beauté, Brunet, Brunet Plus, Brunet Clinique, Clini Plus, Metro Pharmacy, and Food Basics Pharmacy banners. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Stock analysis
Metro Inc (MTRAF) currently trades at $62.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $68.73, implying the stock looks roughly 9.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $62.01 per share, and 9 of the 26 models we run sit above the $62.42 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $15.35, and 17 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $41.50 (bear) to $88.85 (bull), the price of $62.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Metro Inc reported revenue of C$22.0B in FY2025 versus C$18.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.0B in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.7B · P/E ratio 18.6 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) $3.35 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 10%, MTRAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $41.50
Fair Value $68.73
Bull $88.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.87 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$40.12
$65.60
$103.52
79
Growth DCF
$41.20
$64.17
$96.48
78
Owner Earnings
$35.93
$59.27
$93.99
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$40.12
$65.60
$103.52
79
Owner Earnings
$35.93
$59.27
$93.99
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$35.62
$60.55
$91.80
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$46.64
$80.78
$119.90
74
5Y P/E Exit
$38.48
$65.81
$93.80
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$35.46
$58.40
$88.06
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$43.78
$72.31
$109.14
67
10Y P/E Exit
$38.62
$62.01
$89.57
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$23.02
$64.93
$85.47
65
Lynch FV
$13.17
$18.82
$24.46
61
PEG = 1.0
$13.17
$18.82
$24.46
57
EPV
$28.09
$34.37
$39.86
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$9.68
$20.13
$31.93
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$9.68
$15.35
$21.13
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$53.31
$71.08
$88.85
63
P/S Multiple
$43.15
$57.54
$71.92
58
P/B Multiple
$43.15
$57.54
$71.92
55
EV/EBIT
$53.60
$74.66
$95.71
66
EV/EBITDA
$58.03
$80.56
$103.09
67
EV/Revenue
$35.52
$54.84
$74.16
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$11.69
$15.67
$23.39
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$41.20
$64.17
$96.48
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$35.62
$60.84
$89.15
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$23.10
$28.75
$40.97
75
ROIC Compounder
$29.09
$38.94
$50.95
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$42.65
$60.93
$79.21
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
69/100
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Profitability
58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
67/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.1% vs 8.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.5% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.8%
Watch MTRAF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Metro (TSX:MRU) Reaches Tentative Labour Deal That Ends Laval Strike
- Metro Inc (MTRAF) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strike Impact Weighs on Results, but ...
- METRO REPORTS 2026 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS
- /R E P E A T -- METRO Inc. to Release 2026 Third Quarter Results/
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 71 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$62.71 | C$44.76 | −29% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $60.79 | $30.42 | −50% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$38.35 | A$19.56 | −49% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €31.50 | €53.98 | +71% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$101.21 | C$155.86 | +54% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.03 | A$17.03 | −26% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €15.33 | €20.64 | +35% |
| CP ALL Public Company CPALL | 43.00 THB | 58.21 THB | +35% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOB | €22.94 | €12.99 | −43% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 424.75 TRY | 247.71 TRY | −42% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Metro Inc (MTRAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $68.73 versus a price of $62.42, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MTRAF?
Our model-based fair value for Metro Inc is $68.73 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $62.42.
What is the quality score of MTRAF?
Metro Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $68.73 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $41.50, optimistic scenario $88.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metro Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $68.73, about +10% upside versus a price of $62.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $41.50, optimistic scenario $88.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
Metro Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$22.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Metro Inc pay a dividend?
Metro Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.37% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metro Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MTRAF use?
Our models discount Metro Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Metro Inc that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Metro Inc (MTRAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Metro Inc grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Metro Inc (MTRAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Metro Inc (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.22 %: that much free cash flow Metro Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metro Inc it is $68.73 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $62.42. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metro Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, MTRAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $62.42, fair value $68.73, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MTRAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($62.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($68.73). For Metro Inc the two are $6.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metro Inc worth?
The market values Metro Inc at about $13.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $62.42; our models calculate a fair value of $68.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MTRAF?
Our models span a range for Metro Inc: cautious scenario $41.50, base $68.73, optimistic $88.85 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $62.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MTRAF?
Metro Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $68.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 2.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
What is the PEG ratio of MTRAF?
The PEG ratio of Metro Inc is 2.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metro Inc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 13.9%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MTRAF from its 52-week high?
Metro Inc trades at $62.42, about 18% below its 52-week high of $76.02 and at the low of $62.41 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $68.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metro Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metro Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $62.42, calculated fair value $68.73 (+10%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MTRAF calculated?
We run Metro Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $68.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Metro Inc currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $62.42. Our model-based fair value is $68.73, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metro Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($41.50 to $88.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Metro Inc (MTRAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Metro Inc grew +8.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Metro Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
The market capitalisation of Metro Inc is $13.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metro Inc is 0.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
Earnings per share at Metro Inc are $3.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
The dividend yield of Metro Inc is 2.4% (payout 44.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
The net margin of Metro Inc is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metro Inc is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metro Inc is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
The operating margin of Metro Inc is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
Revenue at Metro Inc is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metro Inc (MTRAF)?
Earnings per share at Metro Inc are growing −9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Metro Inc (MTRAF) carry?
The net debt of Metro Inc is C$4.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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