Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mühlbauer Holding AG €42.56, price €42.80, upside -0.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €33.89 – €61.22 · fair‑value band €29.79 – €55.33 · the €42.80 price screens above the €42.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mühlbauer Holding AG engages in the production and personalization of smart cards, ePassports, solar cells, and RFID solutions in Germany, rest of Europe, Asia, the United States, Africa, and internationally.
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Mühlbauer Holding AG engages in the production and personalization of smart cards, ePassports, solar cells, and RFID solutions in Germany, rest of Europe, Asia, the United States, Africa, and internationally. The company offers ID cards for governments, driver's licenses and vehicle registration cards, banking cards for secure transactions, gift and loyalty cards in high-volumes, health cards, and GSM cards for communication; ePassports; and semiconductor related products, such as die sorting, carrier tapes, LEDs Go Flexible, RFID/smart labels, flexible solar technology, and multicomponent flexible electronics. It also provides vision inspection products comprising TEMA security inspection and TEMA industrial inspection; precision parts; eMobility, flexible solar, and flexible electronics; consumables; and support services, as well as accessories that includes card measuring stations, UV-lamps, thread counters, color fans, tool trollies, and cardboard carton for cards. In addition, the company offers automation software solutions, such as MB PalaMax, a smart factory software solution that allows capturing of complete real time production data; and MB Image Enhancement, a software which provides for automated processing of live-captured or scanned portraits. Further, it provides ID card, e-passport, driver's license and vehicle registration, border control and document verification, e-government, production facility, and government software solutions. Mühlbauer Holding AG was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Roding, Germany.
Stock analysis
Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB) currently trades at €42.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €42.56, implying the stock looks roughly 0.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €48.74 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the €42.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €12.09, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €29.79 (bear) to €55.33 (bull), the price of €42.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mühlbauer Holding AG reported revenue of €485M in FY2025 versus €343M in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was €24.7M in FY2025, compounding −19.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €607M · P/E ratio 25.2 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) €1.70 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −1%, MUB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €29.79Fair Value €42.56Bull €55.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1463 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2018 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 220 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mühlbauer Holding AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MUB
Frequently asked questions
Is Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €42.56 versus a price of €42.80, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MUB?
Our model-based fair value for Mühlbauer Holding AG is €42.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €42.80.
What is the quality score of MUB?
Mühlbauer Holding AG has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €42.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €29.79, optimistic scenario €55.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mühlbauer Holding AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €42.56, about −1% upside versus a price of €42.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €29.79, optimistic scenario €55.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
Mühlbauer Holding AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €485M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Mühlbauer Holding AG pay a dividend?
Mühlbauer Holding AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mühlbauer Holding AG would have to grow free cash flow by +12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MUB use?
Our models discount Mühlbauer Holding AG at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mühlbauer Holding AG that is +12.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mühlbauer Holding AG grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +12.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mühlbauer Holding AG (+12.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.73 %: that much free cash flow Mühlbauer Holding AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mühlbauer Holding AG it is €42.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €42.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mühlbauer Holding AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MUB trades above its calculated fair value: price €42.80, fair value €42.56, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MUB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€42.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€42.56). For Mühlbauer Holding AG the two are €0.2400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mühlbauer Holding AG worth?
The market values Mühlbauer Holding AG at about €607M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €42.80; our models calculate a fair value of €42.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MUB?
Our models span a range for Mühlbauer Holding AG: cautious scenario €29.79, base €42.56, optimistic €55.33 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €42.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MUB?
Mühlbauer Holding AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €42.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 2.7, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 9.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MUB?
The PEG ratio of Mühlbauer Holding AG is 0.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mühlbauer Holding AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MUB from its 52-week high?
Mühlbauer Holding AG trades at €42.80, about 5% below its 52-week high of €45.20 and 22% above the low of €35.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €42.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mühlbauer Holding AG?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Western Digital Corporation, Wiwynn Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mühlbauer Holding AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €42.80, calculated fair value €42.56 (−1%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MUB calculated?
We run Mühlbauer Holding AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €42.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mühlbauer Holding AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €42.80. Our model-based fair value is €42.56, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mühlbauer Holding AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€29.79 to €55.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB) come from?
Earnings per share at Mühlbauer Holding AG grew −3.2 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate −3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mühlbauer Holding AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
The market capitalisation of Mühlbauer Holding AG is €607M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mühlbauer Holding AG is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
Earnings per share at Mühlbauer Holding AG are €1.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
The dividend yield of Mühlbauer Holding AG is 3.5% (payout 88.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
The net margin of Mühlbauer Holding AG is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mühlbauer Holding AG is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mühlbauer Holding AG is 15.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
The operating margin of Mühlbauer Holding AG is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
Revenue at Mühlbauer Holding AG is growing −10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB)?
Earnings per share at Mühlbauer Holding AG are growing +167% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mühlbauer Holding AG (MUB) hold?
Mühlbauer Holding AG holds more cash than debt, €71.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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