Mühlbauer Holding (MUB) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · DE · Market cap €562M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from €16.26 to €34.79 (+114.0%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +5.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from €26.10 (bear) to €43.49 (bull), base €34.79. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 64/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €32.50 – €61.22 · fair‑value band €26.10 – €43.49 · the €40.40 price screens above the €34.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Mühlbauer Holding (MUB) currently trades at €40.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €34.79, implying the stock looks roughly 13.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mühlbauer Holding generated revenue of €518M at a net margin of 2.6%. Revenue declined 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €71.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €26.10 (bear case) to €43.49 (bull case); at €40.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -14%, MUB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€38.05) versus Asset-Based (€12.09). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mühlbauer Holding AG engages in the production and personalization of smart cards, ePassports, solar cells, and RFID solutions in Germany, rest of Europe, Asia, the United States, Africa, and internationally.
Full company description
Mühlbauer Holding AG engages in the production and personalization of smart cards, ePassports, solar cells, and RFID solutions in Germany, rest of Europe, Asia, the United States, Africa, and internationally. The company offers ID cards for governments, driver's licenses and vehicle registration cards, banking cards for secure transactions, gift and loyalty cards in high-volumes, health cards, and GSM cards for communication; ePassports; and semiconductor related products, such as die sorting, carrier tapes, LEDs Go Flexible, RFID/smart labels, flexible solar technology, and multicomponent flexible electronics. It also provides vision inspection products comprising TEMA security inspection and TEMA industrial inspection; precision parts; eMobility, flexible solar, and flexible electronics; consumables; and support services, as well as accessories that includes card measuring stations, UV-lamps, thread counters, color fans, tool trollies, and cardboard carton for cards. In addition, the company offers automation software solutions, such as MB PalaMax, a smart factory software solution that allows capturing of complete real time production data; and MB Image Enhancement, a software which provides for automated processing of live-captured or scanned portraits. Further, it provides ID card, e-passport, driver's license and vehicle registration, border control and document verification, e-government, production facility, and government software solutions. Mühlbauer Holding AG was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Roding, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mühlbauer Holding reported revenue of €485M in FY2025 versus €343M in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was €24.7M in FY2025, compounding −19.5%/yr from FY2021.
MUB screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Compal Electronics, Inc →
Peer Group
Computer Hardware · 215 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compal Electronics, Inc CEIR | $0.0310 | $0.0276 | -11% |
| Dell Technologies Inc DELL | $434.97 | $163.87 | -62% |
| Arista Networks, Inc ANET | $168.56 | $43.74 | -74% |
| Western Digital Corporation WDC | $513.84 | $74.05 | -86% |
| Wiwynn Corporation 6669 | 4,685 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -67% |
| Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 | ¥34.12 | ¥30.11 | -12% |
| Quanta Computer Inc 2382 | 373.50 TWD | 297.22 TWD | -20% |
| Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co 301308 | ¥587.60 | ¥60.86 | -90% |
| Lenovo Group 0992 | HK$23.16 | HK$3.07 | -87% |
| Dawning Information Industry Co 603019 | ¥106.13 | ¥28.88 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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