Medivir AB (MVIR) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · SE · Market cap 1.1B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +3.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 1.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 0.7395 to kr 1.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 0.3520 – kr 9.26 · fair‑value band kr 0.7395 – kr 1.40 · the kr 1.80 price screens above the kr 1.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Medivir AB (MVIR) currently trades at kr 1.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.07, implying the stock looks roughly 40.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 9.0M SEK. Revenue grew 83.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -61.7%. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 0.7395 (bear case) to kr 1.40 (bull case); at kr 1.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -41%, MVIR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Medivir AB (publ), a pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medical treatments in areas of high unmet medical need in Sweden, the Nordic region, the rest of Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Medivir AB (publ), a pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medical treatments in areas of high unmet medical need in Sweden, the Nordic region, the rest of Europe, and internationally. The company offers Xerclear (Zoviduo), a combination of a polymerase inhibitor and hydrocortisone for the treatment of labial herpes; and Olysio (simeprevir), a protease inhibitor for the treatment of hepatitis C. It also develops remetinostat, a histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor that is in a Phase II trial for the treatment of mycosis fungoides cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (MF-CTCL), basal cell carcinoma (BCC), and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC); MIV-711, a potent and selective cathepsin K inhibitor that is in a Phase II trial for the treatment of osteoarthritis, as well as in Phase I trials for the treatment of Osteogenesis Imperfecta (brittle bone disease) and Legg-Calvé-Perthes disease (LCPD); and fostroxacitabine bralpamide (fostrox), a liver-targeted inhibitor of DNA replication, which is in Phase I and II trials for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition, the company is developing birinapant, a SMAC-mimetic for the treatment of solid tumors; VBX-1000 (MIC-701), a selective cathepsin K inhibitor for the treatment of canine periodontitis; USP-7, a preclinical research program for the treatment of cancer; and MET-X (MBLI), a preclinical project for the treatment of infection. Medivir AB (publ) was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Huddinge, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Medivir AB reported revenue of kr 8.5M in FY2025 versus kr 25.5M in FY2021, a compound −24.0%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 94.4M in FY2025.
MVIR screens 41% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 604 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.45 | ¥23.19 | -83% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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