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Data-driven stock valuation

Manila Water Company Inc ADR (MWTCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Manila Water Company Inc ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Utilities · US · Market cap $2.1B · ISIN US5632571049

At a glance

MW Manila Water Company Inc ADR logo Manila Water Company Inc ADR MWTCY · US
Price$14.62
Fair Value$36.74
Upside+151.3%
Quality52/100

A solid business, trading 60% below our fair value of $36.74.

As of Aug 28, 2026, the fair value of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is $36.74 per share against a price of $14.62, so the fair value sits 151% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 40.4% net margin
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·4.04% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/13)
✓Wide moat 69/100
Evidence: High Range $23.20 to $37.92

Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 11 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from $37.20 to $36.74 (−1.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −5.2% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($23.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$19.13 $2.45 Fair Value $36.74 Jul 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.45 – $19.13 · fair‑value band $23.20 – $37.92 · the $14.62 price screens below the $36.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

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Analysis

Manila Water Company Inc ADR (MWTCY) currently trades at $14.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.74, implying the stock looks roughly 60.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $59.81 per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the $14.62 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.97, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Manila Water Company Inc ADR generated revenue of 41.2B PHP at a net margin of 40.4%. Revenue grew 11.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.8%. Net debt stands at 135B PHP. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Scenario range: $23.20 (bear) to $37.92 (bull), the price of $14.62 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 151%, MWTCY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3822 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV $11.12 $16.66 $21.43 73
Owner Earnings $26.68 $59.81 $112.09 72
ROIC Compounder $11.12 $16.66 $24.32 70
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $26.68 $59.81 $112.09 72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $23.29 $92.15 $125.17 64
Lynch FV $22.80 $32.57 $42.34 61
PEG = 1.0 $22.80 $32.57 $42.34 57
EPV $11.12 $16.66 $21.43 73
Multiples
P/E Multiple $46.23 $61.65 $77.06 63
P/S Multiple $16.23 $21.64 $27.05 58
P/B Multiple $26.13 $34.84 $43.55 55
EV/EBIT $31.85 $50.45 $69.05 64
EV/EBITDA $21.57 $36.74 $51.91 65
EV/Revenue n/a n/a $4.17 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.68 $12.97 $19.36 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $21.68 $28.60 $91.42 59
ROIC Compounder $11.12 $16.66 $24.32 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $36.96 $52.80 $68.64 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($59.81) versus Asset-Based ($12.97). Highest evidence: EPV (73).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 7.7 as of Jun 22, 2026
P/S ratio 3.06 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.33 price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.7
Dividend yield 4.0% payout 25.3%
Net margin 39.6% FY2025
Return on equity 20.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 58.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 41.2B PHP TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.5% 3y avg +23.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +23.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −1.1B PHP FY2025
Net debt 135B PHP FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Manila Water Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides water treatment and distribution, sewerage, and sanitation services in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company also offers integrated used water, pipework, engineering, procurement, and management services.

Full company description

Manila Water Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides water treatment and distribution, sewerage, and sanitation services in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company also offers integrated used water, pipework, engineering, procurement, and management services. It serves residential, commercial, semi-business, and industrial customers. Manila Water Company, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Makati City, the Philippines.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Manila Water Company Inc ADR reported revenue of 40.8B PHP in FY2025 versus 20.3B PHP in FY2021, a compound +19.1%/yr. Reported net income was 16.2B PHP in FY2025, compounding +44.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
40.8B PHP
Latest YoY
+11.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in PHP) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +27.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+23.3%
Dividend yield4.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 23.3% vs 10Y 8.2%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42.9% (2020) → 57.3% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop35% (2021) · in PHP
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 203% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
Revenue +19.1%/yr
FY21 20.3B PHP
FY22 21.8B PHP
FY23 30.7B PHP
FY24 36.6B PHP
FY25 40.8B PHP
Net income +44.8%/yr
FY21 3.7B PHP
FY22 5.9B PHP
FY23 5.6B PHP
FY24 10.5B PHP
FY25 16.2B PHP
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.2 %

of which total revenue +8.9 % · buybacks/dilution −3.3 %

EBIT margin −0.2 %
Tax rate −0.5 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Manila Water Company Inc ADR · Fair Value
$36.74 +60%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Manila Water Company Inc ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MWTCY

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside +151% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 40% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 58% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.31× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.46× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.24× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.5× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 0
FUTURE58 · sector 28
PAST83 · sector 31
HEALTH34 · sector 65
DIVIDEND81 · sector 53

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
American Water Works Company AWK $140.70 $65.80 −53%
SBS SBS $4.82 $8.13 +69%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG $41.70 $21.81 −48%
Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 HK$8.82 HK$12.82 +45%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323 ¥29.61 ¥33.29 +12%
American States Water Company AWR $88.53 $47.94 −46%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 ¥7.35 ¥9.09 +24%
California Water Service Group CWT $50.03 $33.56 −33%
Chongqing Water Group 601158 ¥4.14 ¥2.77 −33%
Beijing Enterprises Water Group 0371 HK$1.74 HK$3.00 +73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Manila Water Company Inc ADR (MWTCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $36.74 versus a price of $14.62, about +151% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MWTCY?
Our model-based fair value for Manila Water Company Inc ADR is $36.74 (as of Aug 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.62.
What is the quality score of MWTCY?
Manila Water Company Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Manila Water Company Inc ADR (MWTCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $36.74 (as of Aug 28, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.20, optimistic scenario $37.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Manila Water Company Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $36.74, about +151% upside versus a price of $14.62 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $23.20, optimistic scenario $37.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Manila Water Company Inc ADR (MWTCY)?
Manila Water Company Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 41.2B PHP (latest available figure, as of Aug 28, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MWTCY?
The net profit margin of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is about 40.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 40.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Manila Water Company Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Manila Water Company Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.04% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 28, 2026).
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