Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Manila Water Company Inc stock $16.41, price $12.84, upside +27.8%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.45 – $19.13 · fair‑value band $12.56 – $30.93 · the $12.84 price screens below the $16.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Manila Water Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides water treatment and distribution, sewerage, and sanitation services in the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The company also offers integrated used water, pipework, engineering, procurement, and management services. It serves residential, commercial, semi-business, and industrial customers. Manila Water Company, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Makati City, the Philippines.
Stock analysis
Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY) currently trades at $12.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.41, implying the stock looks roughly 21.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $37.72 per share, and 11 of the 14 models we run sit above the $12.84 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $10.29, and 3 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.56 (bear) to $30.93 (bull), the price of $12.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Manila Water Company Inc ADR reported revenue of 40.8B PHP in FY2025 versus 20.3B PHP in FY2021, a compound +19.1%/yr. Reported net income was 16.2B PHP in FY2025, compounding +44.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B Small · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 2.62 · EPS (TTM) $2.20 · Dividend yield 13.8% · Net margin 39.6% · Return on equity 19.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 28%, MWTCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.56Fair Value $16.41Bull$30.93
Price $12.84 · Upside +27.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3471 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$14.73$19.24$30.1474
EPV$6.74$10.29$13.3272
ROIC Compounder$6.74$10.29$13.3271
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings$3.79$16.70$36.2969
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$16.64$65.84$89.4364
Lynch FV$16.29$23.27$30.2561
PEG = 1.0$16.29$23.27$30.2557
EPV$6.74$10.29$13.3272
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$7.10$13.57$19.7167
DDM Multi-Stage$7.10$12.00$14.3967
Multiples
P/E Multiple$33.03$44.04$55.0663
P/S Multiple$11.59$15.46$19.3258
EV/EBIT$19.37$32.66$45.9564
EV/EBITDA$12.02$22.86$33.7064
Economic Profit
Residual Income$14.73$19.24$30.1474
ROIC Compounder$6.74$10.29$13.3271
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$26.41$37.72$49.0467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+45.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.3% vs 8.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 57%
2025 sits 203% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 60 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside+27.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)38.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)57.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)13.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)6.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.20× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Manila Water Company Inc ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MWTCY
Frequently asked questions
Is Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.41 versus a price of $12.84, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MWTCY?
Our model-based fair value for Manila Water Company Inc ADR is $16.41 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.84.
What is the quality score of MWTCY?
Manila Water Company Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.41 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.56, optimistic scenario $30.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Manila Water Company Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.41, about +28% upside versus a price of $12.84 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.56, optimistic scenario $30.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
Manila Water Company Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 42.3B PHP (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Manila Water Company Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Manila Water Company Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 13.80% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Manila Water Company Inc ADR it is $16.41 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $12.84. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Manila Water Company Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, MWTCY trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.84, fair value $16.41, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MWTCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.41). For Manila Water Company Inc ADR the two are $3.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Manila Water Company Inc ADR worth?
The market values Manila Water Company Inc ADR at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $12.84; our models calculate a fair value of $16.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MWTCY?
Our models span a range for Manila Water Company Inc ADR: cautious scenario $12.56, base $16.41, optimistic $30.93 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $12.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MWTCY?
Manila Water Company Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Manila Water Company Inc ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 19.4%, debt of 1.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Manila Water Company Inc ADR?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Manila Water Company Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $12.84, calculated fair value $16.41 (+28%), Quality Score 40/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MWTCY calculated?
We run Manila Water Company Inc ADR through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Manila Water Company Inc ADR currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $12.84. Our model-based fair value is $16.41, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Manila Water Company Inc ADR right now?
A fairly wide model range ($12.56 to $30.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY) come from?
Earnings per share at Manila Water Company Inc ADR grew +3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −0.2 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Manila Water Company Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
The market capitalisation of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is 2.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
Earnings per share at Manila Water Company Inc ADR are $2.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
The dividend yield of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is 13.8% (payout 80.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
The net margin of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is 39.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is 19.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
The operating margin of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is 57.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
Revenue at Manila Water Company Inc ADR is growing +10.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY)?
Earnings per share at Manila Water Company Inc ADR are growing −7.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY) generate?
The free cash flow of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is −1.1B PHP (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Manila Water Company Inc (MWTCY) carry?
The net debt of Manila Water Company Inc ADR is 135B PHP (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 22, 2026