Nabtesco Corporation (NCTKF) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $3.7B

A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.27 – $39.73 · fair‑value band $13.09 – $21.82 · the $28.57 price screens above the $17.45 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Nabtesco Corporation (NCTKF) currently trades at $28.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.45, implying the stock looks roughly 38.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Nabtesco Corporation generated revenue of $320B at a net margin of 5.6%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $13.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $13.09 (bear case) to $21.82 (bull case); at $28.57, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -39%, NCTKF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($19.33) versus Dividend Discount ($6.79). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Nabtesco Corporation manufactures and sells industrial robot parts, construction machinery, railway vehicle brake systems, and automatic doors, aircraft parts, automobile brakes and drive controls, marine, and platform safety products in Japan and internationally.

Full company description

Nabtesco Corporation manufactures and sells industrial robot parts, construction machinery, railway vehicle brake systems, and automatic doors, aircraft parts, automobile brakes and drive controls, marine, and platform safety products in Japan and internationally. It offers precision reduction gear for component and gear head types; hydraulic equipment, such as traveling units for crawlers, control valves for mini excavators, and swing units for hydraulic excavators; railroad vehicle equipment, such as unit brakes, door operators, and brake operating units; and aircraft equipment comprising flight control actuation systems and high-voltage electric power distribution units. The company also provides air dryers and wedge brake chambers for commercial vehicles, and electric compressors for electric buses; marine vessel equipment; automatic doors and platform doors for buildings; prosthetic knee joints; rollators with speed control systems; and power assist units for wheelchairs. In addition, it offers condition monitoring with fail-safe equipment and diagnostic services for wind turbines, as well as wireless power and charging systems; and designs, manufacture, sales, maintenance, and repair of packaging machines, 3D model creation devices, textile machines, and related equipment. Nabtesco Corporation was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Nabtesco Corporation reported revenue of $308B in FY2025 versus $300B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was $15.7B in FY2025, compounding −29.8%/yr from FY2021.

NCTKF screens 39% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 879 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.