Cloudflare, Inc (NET) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $98.6B

Below-average quality, and screening another 98% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The model range is unusually wide ($0.9080 to $8.48). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $37.84 – $301.33 · fair‑value band $0.9080 – $8.48 · the $300.27 price screens above the $4.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

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Analysis

Cloudflare, Inc (NET) currently trades at $300.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.54, implying the stock looks roughly 98.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Cloudflare, Inc generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue grew 33.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.9%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 7, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.9080 (bear case) to $8.48 (bull case); at $300.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -98%, NET screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($103.40) versus Multiples ($1.02). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Cloudflare, Inc. operates as a cloud services provider that delivers a range of services to businesses worldwide. The company provides a cloud-based security solution to secure a range of combination of platforms, including public and private cloud, on-premises, software-as-a-service applications, and Internet of things (IoT) devices; and application …

Full company description

Cloudflare, Inc. operates as a cloud services provider that delivers a range of services to businesses worldwide. The company provides a cloud-based security solution to secure a range of combination of platforms, including public and private cloud, on-premises, software-as-a-service applications, and Internet of things (IoT) devices; and application security products comprising web application firewall, bot management, distributed denial of service mitigation, API security, SSL/TLS encryption, client-side security, and security center products. It also offers application performance solutions, such as content delivery, load balancing, DNS, smart shield, video stream delivery, web optimization, cloudfare waiting room, and cloudfare data localization suite; SASE platform that combines network services and Zero Trust and workplace security products that provides a cloud-based network and security-as-a-service; network services, including magic WAN, magic transit, magic firewall, cloudflare network interconnect, and spectrum. In addition, the company provides zero trust security services which include cloudflare zero trust network access, secure web gateway, and one client; and remote browser isolation, cloud access security broker, cloud email security, digital experience monitoring, and data loss prevention products. Further, it provides developer-based solutions comprising workers AI, vectorize, AI gateway, cloudflare workers, cloudflare pages, R2 object storage, workers KV, durable objects, D1, hyperdrive, queues, cloudfare stream, cloudfare images, and cloudflare realtime; and consumer offerings, such as 1.1.1.1 DNS and with WARPm and cloudfare registrar that offers secure registration and management of domain names. The company serves customers in technology, healthcare, financial services, consumer and retail, industrial, and non-profit industries, as well as government. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cloudflare, Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $656M in FY2021, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$102M in FY2025.

NET screens 98% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• More Than Half of Cloudflare's Network Traffic Is No Longer Human. The Stock Broke to a Record on It. Nasdaq · Aug 7, 2026
• Cloudflare Stock Jumps 8.2% as AI Demand Lifts Forecast Yahoo Finance · Aug 7, 2026

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.