National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of National Fertilizers Limited ₹73.29, price ₹67.84, upside +8.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹36.94 – ₹157.07 · fair‑value band ₹54.20 – ₹91.61 · the ₹67.84 price screens below the ₹73.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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National Fertilizers Limited engages in the production and marketing of neem coated urea, bio-fertilizers, and other allied Industrial products in India. It operates through Manufactured Fertilizers, Manufactured Chemicals, Traded Imported Fertilizers, and Others segments.
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National Fertilizers Limited engages in the production and marketing of neem coated urea, bio-fertilizers, and other allied Industrial products in India. It operates through Manufactured Fertilizers, Manufactured Chemicals, Traded Imported Fertilizers, and Others segments. The company offers urea; bentonite sulphur; and bio fertilizers, including rhizobium, azectobactor and PSB, and zinc solubilizing bacteria. It also provides industrial products comprising ammonia, nitric acid, ammonium nitrate, and sodium nitrite and nitrate under the KISAN brand name, as well as seeds under the Kisan Beej brand name. In addition, the company trades in compost, agrochemicals, seeds, and other agro products. National Fertilizers Limited was incorporated in 1974 and is based in Noida, India.
Stock analysis
National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) currently trades at ₹67.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹73.29, implying the stock looks roughly 7.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹315.08 per share, and 13 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹67.84 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹19.95, and 4 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹54.20 (bear) to ₹91.61 (bull), the price of ₹67.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
National Fertilizers Limited reported revenue of ₹215B in FY2026 versus ₹49.1B in FY2022, a compound +44.7%/yr. Reported net income was ₹2.1B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹36.9B (≈ $385M) · P/E ratio 15.7 · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) ₹4.31 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −30.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 8%, NFL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹54.20Fair Value ₹73.29Bull ₹91.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹2.10 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs 1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 2%
Compare National Fertilizers Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
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Is National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹73.29 versus a price of ₹67.84, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NFL?
Our model-based fair value for National Fertilizers Limited is ₹73.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹67.84.
What is the quality score of NFL?
National Fertilizers Limited has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹73.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹54.20, optimistic scenario ₹91.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Fertilizers Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹73.29, about +8% upside versus a price of ₹67.84 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ₹54.20, optimistic scenario ₹91.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
National Fertilizers Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹215B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does National Fertilizers Limited pay a dividend?
National Fertilizers Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Fertilizers Limited it is ₹73.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹67.84. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Fertilizers Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NFL trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹67.84, fair value ₹73.29, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NFL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹67.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹73.29). For National Fertilizers Limited the two are ₹5.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Fertilizers Limited worth?
The market values National Fertilizers Limited at about ₹36.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹67.84; our models calculate a fair value of ₹73.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NFL?
Our models span a range for National Fertilizers Limited: cautious scenario ₹54.20, base ₹73.29, optimistic ₹91.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹67.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NFL?
National Fertilizers Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹73.29 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Fertilizers Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NFL from its 52-week high?
National Fertilizers Limited trades at ₹67.84, about 29% below its 52-week high of ₹96.11 and 5% above the low of ₹64.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹73.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Fertilizers Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Fertilizers Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹67.84, calculated fair value ₹73.29 (+8%), Quality Score 44/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NFL calculated?
We run National Fertilizers Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹73.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. National Fertilizers Limited currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ₹67.84. Our model-based fair value is ₹73.29, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Fertilizers Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) come from?
Earnings per share at National Fertilizers Limited grew +2.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.6 %, EBIT margin −8.9 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National Fertilizers Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
The market capitalisation of National Fertilizers Limited is ₹36.9B (≈ $385M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Fertilizers Limited is 0.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
Earnings per share at National Fertilizers Limited are ₹4.31 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
The dividend yield of National Fertilizers Limited is 2.1% (payout 32.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
The net margin of National Fertilizers Limited is 1.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Fertilizers Limited is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Fertilizers Limited is −30.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
The operating margin of National Fertilizers Limited is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
Revenue at National Fertilizers Limited is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +44.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Fertilizers Limited (NFL)?
Earnings per share at National Fertilizers Limited are growing +12.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) generate?
The free cash flow of National Fertilizers Limited is −₹18.0B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) carry?
The net debt of National Fertilizers Limited is ₹39.0B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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