National Grid plc (NG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · GB · Market cap 61.0B GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price −4.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 27% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (£6.66 to £12.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £6.51 – £13.99 · fair‑value band £6.66 – £12.44 · the £12.26 price screens above the £8.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
National Grid plc (NG) currently trades at £12.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £8.89, implying the stock looks roughly 27.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, National Grid plc generated revenue of £17.7B at a net margin of 18.3%. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at £46.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £6.66 (bear case) to £12.44 (bull case); at £12.26, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -27%, NG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£11.07) versus Economic Profit (£2.41). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales.
Full company description
National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales. The UK Electricity Distribution segment offers electricity distribution services in east and west Midlands, Southwest of England, and South Wales. The New England segment provides electricity and gas supply and distribution, and high-voltage electricity transmission services in New England. The New York segment offers electricity and gas distribution, and electricity transmission services in New York. The National Grid Ventures segment provides transmission services through electricity interconnectors and LNG importation at the Isle of Grain. The Other segment engages in the leasing and sale of commercial property, as well as insurance activities in the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
National Grid plc reported revenue of £17.7B in FY2026 versus £18.4B in FY2022, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was £3.2B in FY2026, compounding +8.3%/yr from FY2022.
NG screens 27% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- National Grid Transco AGM: £70B Investment Plan Meets Climate, Data Center Scrutiny
- National Grid (LSE:NG.) Stock Looks Fairly Valued After $1.75b Investment
- National Grid (LSE:NG) Is Putting $1.75 Billion Into U.S. Data Center Power
- Joulent Secures $1.75B Strategic Investment from National Grid to Accelerate Growth as Technology-Driven Energy Company Powering American In
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
| CK Infrastructure Holdings 1038 | HK$62.60 | HK$42.74 | -32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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