National Grid PLC (NG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Grid PLC stock £7.15, price £12.50, that is 42.8% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £5.84 – £13.65 · fair‑value band £6.60 – £10.30 · the £12.50 price screens above the £7.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments.
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The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales. The UK Electricity Distribution segment offers electricity distribution services in east and west Midlands, Southwest of England, and South Wales.
The New England segment provides electricity and gas supply and distribution, and high-voltage electricity transmission services in New England. The New York segment offers electricity and gas distribution, and electricity transmission services in New York.
The National Grid Ventures segment provides transmission services through electricity interconnectors and LNG importation at the Isle of Grain. The Other segment engages in the leasing and sale of commercial property, as well as insurance activities in the United Kingdom.
The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
National Grid PLC (NG) currently trades at £12.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £7.15, 43% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £9.81 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the £12.50 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £2.60, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £6.60 (bear) to £10.30 (bull), the price of £12.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
National Grid PLC reported revenue of £17.7B in FY2026 versus £18.4B in FY2022, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was £3.2B in FY2026, compounding +8.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £62.1B Large · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 3.51 · EPS (TTM) £0.8000 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 18.3% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −43%, NG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£6.60Fair Value £7.15Bull£10.30
Price £12.50 · Downside -42.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1975 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.1% vs −1.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 33%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Regulated infrastructure provides stability for National Grid, while negative free cash flow and high leverage stand out as the main financial weakness.
Main risk: Ofgem could disallow significant cost overruns or question project economics on transmission links such as Sea Link, reducing allowed revenues and squeezing margins on the regulated networks.
Bull case: National Grid could integrate distributed resources and AI-driven flexibility services into its networks, turning decentralisation into higher-value regulated investments and new revenue streams from data-centre connections.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory disallowances combined with rapid uptake of behind-the-meter storage and peer-to-peer trading could materially reduce the need for traditional grid capacity and cap returns on the core regulated business.
National Grid just lifted its full-year earnings growth outlook after a stronger first-half contribution from its Ventures portfolio and interconnectors. The core regulated networks are performing in line with expectations, yet these additional activities supplied the extra momentum. Will the one-off gains and interconnector results become a recurring driver or will the steady regulated business define the trajectory ahead?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−42.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.4% · Below median
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)18.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)32.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.07× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.58× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.51× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.06× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)10· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)46· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)76· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is National Grid PLC (NG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £7.15 versus a price of £12.50, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NG?
Our model-based fair value for National Grid PLC is £7.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £12.50.
What is the quality score of NG?
National Grid PLC has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Grid PLC (NG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £7.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario £6.60, optimistic scenario £10.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Grid PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £7.15, about 43% lower versus a price of £12.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £6.60, optimistic scenario £10.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Grid PLC (NG)?
National Grid PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £17.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does National Grid PLC pay a dividend?
National Grid PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 3.78% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of National Grid PLC (NG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Grid PLC it is £7.15 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of £12.50. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Grid PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NG trades above its calculated fair value: price £12.50, fair value £7.15, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£12.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£7.15). For National Grid PLC the two are £5.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Grid PLC worth?
The market values National Grid PLC at about £62.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is £12.50; our models calculate a fair value of £7.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NG?
Our models span a range for National Grid PLC: cautious scenario £6.60, base £7.15, optimistic £10.30 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price £12.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NG?
National Grid PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £7.15 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings: 18.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 14.8.
What is the PEG ratio of NG?
The PEG ratio of National Grid PLC is 1.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Grid PLC (NG)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Grid PLC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 1.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NG from its 52-week high?
National Grid PLC trades at £12.50, about 8% below its 52-week high of £13.65 and 15% above the low of £10.88 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £7.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Grid PLC?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Grid PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price £12.50, calculated fair value £7.15 (−43%), Quality Score 36/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NG calculated?
We run National Grid PLC through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £7.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. National Grid PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Grid PLC (NG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £12.50. Our model-based fair value is £7.15, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Grid PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£10.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of National Grid PLC (NG) come from?
Earnings per share at National Grid PLC grew −7.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate −1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National Grid PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of National Grid PLC (NG)?
The market capitalisation of National Grid PLC is £62.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Grid PLC (NG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Grid PLC is 3.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Grid PLC (NG)?
Earnings per share at National Grid PLC are £0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Grid PLC (NG)?
The dividend yield of National Grid PLC is 3.8% (payout 59.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Grid PLC (NG)?
The net margin of National Grid PLC is 18.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Grid PLC (NG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Grid PLC is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Grid PLC (NG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Grid PLC is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Grid PLC (NG)?
The operating margin of National Grid PLC is 32.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Grid PLC (NG)?
Revenue at National Grid PLC is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Grid PLC (NG)?
Earnings per share at National Grid PLC are growing +14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does National Grid PLC (NG) generate?
The free cash flow of National Grid PLC is −£3.8B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does National Grid PLC (NG) carry?
The net debt of National Grid PLC is £46.4B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026