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NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NGL Energy Partners LP $5.64, price $15.94, upside -64.6%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · US · ISIN US62913M1071

NE NGL Energy Partners LP logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

NGL Energy Partners LP

NGL · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $5.64 · Strongly overvalued (−65%)
!Quality 40/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −9.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $1.56 to $12.42
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.97 $1.04 Fair Value $5.64 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.04 – $18.97 · fair‑value band $1.56 – $12.42 · the $15.94 price screens above the $5.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

NGL Energy Partners LP engages in the transportation, storage, blending, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, refined products/renewables, and water solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics.

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NGL Energy Partners LP engages in the transportation, storage, blending, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, refined products/renewables, and water solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics. The Water Solutions segment transports, treats, recycles, and disposes produced and flowback water generated from crude oil and natural gas production; aggregates and sells recovered crude oil; disposes solids, such as tank bottoms, drilling fluid, and muds, as well as performs truck and frac tank washouts; and sells produced water for reuse and recycle, and brackish non-potable water. The Crude Oil Logistics segment purchases crude oil from producers and marketers and transports it to refineries for resale at pipeline injection stations, storage terminals, barge loading facilities, rail facilities, refineries, and other trade hubs; and provides storage, terminaling, and transportation services through pipelines and storage tanks. The Liquids Logistics segment offers natural gas liquids to commercial, retail, and industrial customers across the United States and Canada through its five terminals, third-party storage and terminal facilities, nine common carrier pipelines and a fleet of leased railcars. This segment also provides services for marine exports of butane through its facility located in Chesapeake, Virginia; and owns a propane pipeline in Michigan. NGL Energy Holdings LLC serves as the general partner of the company. NGL Energy Partners LP was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

Stock analysis

NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) currently trades at $15.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.64, implying the stock looks roughly 182.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $7.61 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $15.94 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $4.54, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $1.56 (bear) to $12.42 (bull), the price of $15.94 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.

NGL Energy Partners LP reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2026 versus $7.9B in FY2022, a compound −20.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$180M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $2.0B · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) $−3.50 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin −5.7% · Return on equity −51.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% · Operating margin 2.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 172% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −65%, NGL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.56 Fair Value $5.64 Bull $12.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF n/a $5.90 $18.27 77
Growth DCF n/a $6.30 $17.13 75
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $5.20 $17.09 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a $5.90 $18.27 77
5Y Revenue Exit n/a $4.54 $17.16 69
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $5.20 $17.09 72
10Y Revenue Exit n/a $2.55 $9.01 64
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a $2.92 $8.97 65
Earnings-Based
EPV n/a n/a $1.97 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.06 $7.61 $8.43 69
DDM Multi-Stage $7.06 $8.41 $10.14 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a $5.05 $12.75 61
EV/EBITDA n/a $5.64 $13.49 62
EV/Revenue n/a $4.59 $13.69 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1000 $0.1400 $0.2100 53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a $6.30 $17.13 75
Rev-Margin DCF n/a $5.18 $16.74 69
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a $2.41 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 29
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 97
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.0% (2020) → 9.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.9% a year for the price.

NGL screens 183% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 86 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.64× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 14.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 8.06× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 57
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 45
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 54
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 81

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Enbridge Inc ENB $47.90 $36.91 −23%
The Williams Companies, Inc WMB $70.98 $11.73 −83%
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD $38.01 $24.61 −35%
Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI $31.27 $28.24 −10%
TC Energy Corporation TRP $59.78 $24.51 −59%
Energy Transfer LP, ET $20.40 $19.43 −5%
MPLX LP owns and MPLX $59.16 $70.84 +20%
ONEOK, Inc OKE $90.09 $80.35 −11%
Targa Resources Corp TRGP $282.15 $79.61 −72%
Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG $272.96 $349.73 +28%

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NGL Energy Partners LP · Fair Value
$5.64 −183%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NGL Energy Partners LP Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NGL

Frequently asked questions

Is NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.64 versus a price of $15.94, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NGL?
Our model-based fair value for NGL Energy Partners LP is $5.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.94.
What is the quality score of NGL?
NGL Energy Partners LP has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $12.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NGL Energy Partners LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.64, about −65% upside versus a price of $15.94 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $12.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
NGL Energy Partners LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NGL Energy Partners LP pay a dividend?
NGL Energy Partners LP currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.69% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NGL Energy Partners LP would have to grow free cash flow by +21.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NGL use?
Our models discount NGL Energy Partners LP at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NGL Energy Partners LP that is +21.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NGL Energy Partners LP grew -9.6 % a year. The price currently implies +21.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NGL Energy Partners LP (+21.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.15 %: that much free cash flow NGL Energy Partners LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NGL Energy Partners LP it is $5.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $15.94. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NGL Energy Partners LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NGL trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.94, fair value $5.64, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.64). For NGL Energy Partners LP the two are $10.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NGL Energy Partners LP worth?
The market values NGL Energy Partners LP at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $15.94; our models calculate a fair value of $5.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGL?
Our models span a range for NGL Energy Partners LP: cautious scenario $1.56, base $5.64, optimistic $12.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $15.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NGL?
The PEG ratio of NGL Energy Partners LP is 8.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for NGL Energy Partners LP (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NGL from its 52-week high?
NGL Energy Partners LP trades at $15.94, about 16% below its 52-week high of $18.97 and 172% above the low of $5.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NGL Energy Partners LP?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NGL Energy Partners LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $15.94, calculated fair value $5.64 (−65%), Quality Score 40/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGL calculated?
We run NGL Energy Partners LP through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NGL Energy Partners LP itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $15.94. Our model-based fair value is $5.64, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NGL Energy Partners LP right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($1.56 to $12.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Key figures of NGL Energy Partners LP

How large is the market capitalisation of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
The market capitalisation of NGL Energy Partners LP is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NGL Energy Partners LP is 0.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
Earnings per share at NGL Energy Partners LP are $−3.50. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
The dividend yield of NGL Energy Partners LP is 5.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
The net margin of NGL Energy Partners LP is −5.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NGL Energy Partners LP is −51.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NGL Energy Partners LP is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
The operating margin of NGL Energy Partners LP is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
Revenue at NGL Energy Partners LP is growing −13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)?
Earnings per share at NGL Energy Partners LP are growing −60.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) carry?
The net debt of NGL Energy Partners LP is $3.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 23.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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