NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $2.0B
NGL Energy Partners LP
NGL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +7.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.97 to $11.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.04 – $18.11 · fair‑value band $3.97 – $11.32 · the $16.88 price screens above the $3.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) currently trades at $16.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.97, implying the stock looks roughly 76.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NGL Energy Partners LP generated revenue of $3.2B at a net margin of -4.5%. Revenue declined 13.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -51.7%. Net debt stands at $3.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.97 (bear case) to $11.32 (bull case); at $16.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 327% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -76%, NGL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($7.61) versus Asset-Based ($0.1400). Highest evidence: Rev-Margin DCF (74).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NGL Energy Partners LP engages in the transportation, storage, blending, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, refined products/renewables, and water solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics.
Full company description
NGL Energy Partners LP engages in the transportation, storage, blending, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, refined products/renewables, and water solutions in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics, and Liquids Logistics. The Water Solutions segment transports, treats, recycles, and disposes produced and flowback water generated from crude oil and natural gas production; aggregates and sells recovered crude oil; disposes solids, such as tank bottoms, drilling fluid, and muds, as well as performs truck and frac tank washouts; and sells produced water for reuse and recycle, and brackish non-potable water. The Crude Oil Logistics segment purchases crude oil from producers and marketers and transports it to refineries for resale at pipeline injection stations, storage terminals, barge loading facilities, rail facilities, refineries, and other trade hubs; and provides storage, terminaling, and transportation services through pipelines and storage tanks. The Liquids Logistics segment offers natural gas liquids to commercial, retail, and industrial customers across the United States and Canada through its five terminals, third-party storage and terminal facilities, nine common carrier pipelines and a fleet of leased railcars. This segment also provides services for marine exports of butane through its facility located in Chesapeake, Virginia; and owns a propane pipeline in Michigan. NGL Energy Holdings LLC serves as the general partner of the company. NGL Energy Partners LP was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
NGL Energy Partners LP reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2026 versus $7.9B in FY2022, a compound −20.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$180M in FY2026.
NGL screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Suburban Propane Partners, NGL Energy Partners and Global Partners
- NGL Energy Partners Announces Earnings Call
- NGL Energy Partners LP Announces Quarterly Cash Distribution for the Class B, Class C, and Class D Preferred Units
- NGL Energy Partners (NGL) Stock Jumps 5.6%: Will It Continue to Soar?
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Midstream · 87 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $56.46 | $47.20 | -16% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $73.38 | $12.03 | -84% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $38.31 | $24.74 | -35% |
| TC Energy Corporation TRP | C$97.79 | C$42.00 | -57% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $32.54 | $11.12 | -66% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $19.91 | $17.69 | -11% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $93.52 | $64.05 | -32% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $273.35 | $79.61 | -71% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $57.17 | $37.05 | -35% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $255.83 | $211.18 | -17% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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