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National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Healthcare Properties, Inc stock $4.63, price $15.17, that is 69.5% below the price, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate US

NH National Healthcare Properties, Inc logo Some data Nov 12, 2026

National Healthcare Properties, Inc

NHP · US

Far too expensive (fair value 70% below the price) and weak company.

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Generates free cash flow over the last twelve months 
Revenue last quarter +20% vs. a year ago. 
Moderate debt 
2.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Some data 
Fair value $4.63 · Strongly overvalued 
Quality 25/100 
Weak Growth (revenue 3y +0.6 %/yr in USD) 
Loss-making · -3.4% net margin (TTM) 
Trails peers (2/12) 
Narrow moat 15/100 · thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$17.00 $11.88 Fair Value $4.63 Apr 2026 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

7‑month range $11.88 – $17.00 · fair‑value band $0.9265 – $8.65 · the $15.17 price screens above the $4.63 fair value. As of Nov 12, 2026.

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Company profile

National Healthcare Properties, Inc. is a self-managed real estate investment trust focused on acquiring, owning and investing in a diversified portfolio of healthcare real estate, with an emphasis on providing senior housing to serve a growing elderly population in the United States.

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National Healthcare Properties, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 in Maryland, USA.

Stock analysis

National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP) currently trades at $15.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.63, 70% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at medium.

Scenario range: $0.9265 (bear) to $8.65 (bull), the price of $15.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

National Healthcare Properties, Inc reported revenue of $342M in FY2025 versus $336M in FY2022, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$57.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B Small · P/S ratio 3.18 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8800 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin −16.8% · Return on equity −1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.0% (4-year average) · Operating margin 1.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −70%, NHP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.9265 Fair Value $4.63 Bull $8.65
Price $15.17 · Downside -69.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA $0.7100 $5.45 $10.18 57
NCAV (Graham) $4.10 $5.49 $8.19 52
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $0.7100 $5.45 $10.18 57
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.10 $5.49 $8.19 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 25/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 5
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 7
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 18
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 88
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 27
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 43
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 64
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 12, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 6/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.4% (2022) → 1.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NHP screens overvalued: fair value 70% below the price. Compare with Welltower Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 26 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −69.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −3.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 1.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 19.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.86× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Healthcare Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.85× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.07× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 14.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)99 · sector 54
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)57 · sector 73
DIVIDEND (yield)40 · sector 100

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc OHI $47.03 $58.51 +24% vs NHP
Healthpeak Properties, Inc DOC $20.12 $22.75 +13% vs NHP
Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated HR $19.16 $20.82 +9% vs NHP
Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc SBRA $20.56 $22.18 +8% vs NHP
CareTrust REIT, Inc CTRE $38.15 $31.01 −19% vs NHP
Aedifica NV AED €65.90 €51.37 −22% vs NHP
LTC Properties, Inc LTC $43.77 $33.93 −22% vs NHP
Ventas, Inc VTR $89.65 $33.27 −63% vs NHP
Welltower Inc WELL $244.93 $74.12 −70% vs NHP
American Healthcare REIT, Inc AHR $58.64 $12.01 −80% vs NHP

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National Healthcare Properties, Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Healthcare Properties, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NHP

Frequently asked questions

Is National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.63 versus a price of $15.17, about 70% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NHP?
Our model-based fair value for National Healthcare Properties, Inc is $4.63 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.17.
What is the quality score of NHP?
National Healthcare Properties, Inc has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.63 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9265, optimistic scenario $8.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Healthcare Properties, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.63, about 70% lower versus a price of $15.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9265, optimistic scenario $8.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
National Healthcare Properties, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $361M (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does National Healthcare Properties, Inc pay a dividend?
National Healthcare Properties, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
National Healthcare Properties, Inc pays a dividend of $0.3 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 9, 2026. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Healthcare Properties, Inc it is $4.63 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of $15.17. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is National Healthcare Properties, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, NHP trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.17, fair value $4.63, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NHP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.63). For National Healthcare Properties, Inc the two are $10.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Healthcare Properties, Inc worth?
The market values National Healthcare Properties, Inc at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is $15.17; our models calculate a fair value of $4.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NHP?
Our models span a range for National Healthcare Properties, Inc: cautious scenario $0.9265, base $4.63, optimistic $8.65 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price $15.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Healthcare Properties, Inc (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity −1.6%, debt of 0.86 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to National Healthcare Properties, Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Welltower Inc, Ventas, Inc, Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc, Healthpeak Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Healthcare Properties, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price $15.17, calculated fair value $4.63 (−70%), Quality Score 25/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NHP calculated?
We run National Healthcare Properties, Inc through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.63 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. National Healthcare Properties, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was $15.17. Our model-based fair value is $4.63, about 70% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Healthcare Properties, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($0.9265 to $8.65). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of National Healthcare Properties, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
The market capitalisation of National Healthcare Properties, Inc is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Healthcare Properties, Inc is 3.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
Earnings per share at National Healthcare Properties, Inc are $−0.8800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
The dividend yield of National Healthcare Properties, Inc is 2.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
The net margin of National Healthcare Properties, Inc is −16.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Healthcare Properties, Inc is −1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Healthcare Properties, Inc is −2.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
The operating margin of National Healthcare Properties, Inc is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP)?
Revenue at National Healthcare Properties, Inc is growing +19.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP) generate?
The free cash flow of National Healthcare Properties, Inc is −$21.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does National Healthcare Properties, Inc (NHP) carry?
The net debt of National Healthcare Properties, Inc is $988M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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