NHPC Limited (NHPC) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · IN · Market cap ₹791B

Below-average quality, and screening another 62% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹36.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹19.68 – ₹110.37 · fair‑value band ₹28.91 – ₹36.14 · the ₹76.92 price screens above the ₹28.91 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

NHPC Limited (NHPC) currently trades at ₹76.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹28.91, implying the stock looks roughly 62.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, NHPC Limited generated revenue of ₹116B at a net margin of 32.4%. Revenue grew 19.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.0%. Net debt stands at ₹487B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹28.91 (bear case) to ₹36.14 (bull case); at ₹76.92, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -62%, NHPC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (₹40.32) versus Economic Profit (₹0.7000). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

NHPC Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, sale, and trading of electricity through hydro, wind, and solar power stations in India and Nepal. It also owns and operates power stations.

Full company description

NHPC Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, sale, and trading of electricity through hydro, wind, and solar power stations in India and Nepal. It also owns and operates power stations. In addition, the company offers construction, execution and maintenance, and consultancy services in the areas of design and engineering, geotechnical investigations, construction, renovation and modernization, procurement, project management and supervision, operation and maintenance of power plants, rural road projects, and rural electrification projects. It sells electricity to bulk customers, including electricity utilities owned by state governments/private distribution companies. NHPC Limited was incorporated in 1975 and is based in Faridabad, India.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

NHPC Limited reported revenue of ₹116B in FY2026 versus ₹90.6B in FY2022, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹27.8B in FY2026, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2022.

NHPC screens 62% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →

Peer Group

Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.