NHPC Limited (NHPC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NHPC Limited stock ₹32.95, price ₹82.08, that is 59.9% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹21.44 – ₹110.37 · fair‑value band ₹31.59 – ₹36.14 · the ₹82.08 price screens above the ₹32.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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NHPC Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, sale, and trading of electricity through hydro, wind, and solar power stations in India and Nepal. It also owns and operates power stations.
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In addition, the company offers construction, execution and maintenance, and consultancy services in the areas of design and engineering, geotechnical investigations, construction, renovation and modernization, procurement, project management and supervision, operation and maintenance of power plants, rural road projects, and rural electrification projects.
It sells electricity to bulk customers, including electricity utilities owned by state governments/private distribution companies. NHPC Limited was incorporated in 1975 and is based in Faridabad, India.
Stock analysis
NHPC Limited (NHPC) currently trades at ₹82.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹32.95, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹39.76 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the ₹82.08 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ₹22.93, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹31.59 (bear) to ₹36.14 (bull), the price of ₹82.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
NHPC Limited reported revenue of ₹116B in FY2026 versus ₹90.6B in FY2022, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹27.8B in FY2026, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹824B (≈ $8.8B) Mid · P/E ratio 19.1 · P/S ratio 6.19 · EPS (TTM) ₹4.30 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 32.5% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −60%, NHPC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹31.59Fair Value ₹32.95Bull₹36.14
Price ₹82.08 · Downside -59.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹2.14 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.2% vs 1.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 35%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 197 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside−59.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)32.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)50.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)33.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.1× · Pricier than median
P/B1.99× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)6.19× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA18.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)44· sector 71
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NHPC Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NHPC
Frequently asked questions
Is NHPC Limited (NHPC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹32.95 versus a price of ₹82.08, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NHPC?
Our model-based fair value for NHPC Limited is ₹32.95 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹82.08.
What is the quality score of NHPC?
NHPC Limited has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹32.95 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹31.59, optimistic scenario ₹36.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NHPC Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹32.95, about 60% lower versus a price of ₹82.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹31.59, optimistic scenario ₹36.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
NHPC Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹133B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does NHPC Limited pay a dividend?
NHPC Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 0.96% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of NHPC Limited (NHPC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
NHPC Limited pays a dividend of ₹0.787 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The dividend was cut; the year before it was ₹1.91 per share. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 12, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2010. The payout ratio is 18.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 1.0% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 1.0% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NHPC Limited it is ₹32.95 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ₹82.08. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is NHPC Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, NHPC trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹82.08, fair value ₹32.95, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NHPC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹82.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹32.95). For NHPC Limited the two are ₹49.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NHPC Limited worth?
The market values NHPC Limited at about ₹824B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ₹82.08; our models calculate a fair value of ₹32.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NHPC?
Our models span a range for NHPC Limited: cautious scenario ₹31.59, base ₹32.95, optimistic ₹36.14 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ₹82.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NHPC?
NHPC Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹32.95 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 10.8. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 6.2, EV/EBITDA 18.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
Balance-sheet figures for NHPC Limited (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 1.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NHPC from its 52-week high?
NHPC Limited trades at ₹82.08, about 4% below its 52-week high of ₹85.38 and 18% above the low of ₹69.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹32.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NHPC Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Ørsted A/S, VERBUND AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NHPC Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ₹82.08, calculated fair value ₹32.95 (−60%), Quality Score 40/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NHPC calculated?
We run NHPC Limited through 13 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ₹32.95 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. NHPC Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ₹82.08. Our model-based fair value is ₹32.95, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NHPC Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹36.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (₹31.59 to ₹36.14), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of NHPC Limited (NHPC) come from?
Earnings per share at NHPC Limited grew +2.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NHPC Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
The market capitalisation of NHPC Limited is ₹824B (≈ $8.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NHPC Limited is 6.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
Earnings per share at NHPC Limited are ₹4.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
The dividend yield of NHPC Limited is 1.0% (payout 18.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
The net margin of NHPC Limited is 32.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NHPC Limited is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NHPC Limited is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
The operating margin of NHPC Limited is 50.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
Revenue at NHPC Limited is growing +33.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NHPC Limited (NHPC)?
Earnings per share at NHPC Limited are growing +51.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NHPC Limited (NHPC) generate?
The free cash flow of NHPC Limited is −₹108B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NHPC Limited (NHPC) carry?
The net debt of NHPC Limited is ₹487B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026