PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of PAM Mineral Tbk PT IDR 320, price IDR 442, upside -27.5%, quality 84 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 53.51 IDR – 1,856 IDR · fair‑value band 181.69 IDR – 416.47 IDR · the 442.00 IDR price screens above the 320.36 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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PT PAM Mineral Tbk, together with its subsidiary, engages in mining of mineral properties in Indonesia. The company primarily explores, mines, processes, and trades in nickel ores.
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PT PAM Mineral Tbk, together with its subsidiary, engages in mining of mineral properties in Indonesia. The company primarily explores, mines, processes, and trades in nickel ores. It owns a nickel mining concession area covering 198 hectares located on the coast of central Sulawesi, Laroenai Village, and Bungku District and a concession covering an area of 576 hectares located in Sulawesi Tenggara, Lameruru Village, Langgikima Sub-District, and North Konawe Regency. PT PAM Mineral Tbk was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL) currently trades at 442.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 320.36 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 38.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 915.31 IDR per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the 442.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 48.75 IDR, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 181.69 IDR (bear) to 416.47 IDR (bull), the price of 442.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
PAM Mineral Tbk PT reported revenue of 1.5T IDR in FY2025 versus 419B IDR in FY2021, a compound +36.9%/yr. Reported net income was 344B IDR in FY2025, compounding +66.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 5.3T IDR (≈ $528M) · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 4.07 · EPS (TTM) 25.40 IDR · Dividend yield 8.5% · Net margin 23.4% · Return on equity 27.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −28%, NICL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 181.69 IDRFair Value 320.36 IDRBull 416.47 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (18.58 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+66.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+58.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 31%
2025 sits 109% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 459 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score84 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−28% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Return on assets19% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)53% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−46% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B6.82× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.31× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PAM Mineral Tbk PT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NICL
Frequently asked questions
Is PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 320.36 IDR versus a price of 442.00 IDR, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NICL?
Our model-based fair value for PAM Mineral Tbk PT is 320.36 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 442.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of NICL?
PAM Mineral Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 320.36 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 181.69 IDR, optimistic scenario 416.47 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PAM Mineral Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 320.36 IDR, about −28% upside versus a price of 442.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 181.69 IDR, optimistic scenario 416.47 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
PAM Mineral Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does PAM Mineral Tbk PT pay a dividend?
PAM Mineral Tbk PT currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PAM Mineral Tbk PT would have to grow free cash flow by +0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +50.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NICL use?
Our models discount PAM Mineral Tbk PT at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PAM Mineral Tbk PT that is +0.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PAM Mineral Tbk PT grew +50.9 % a year. The price currently implies +0.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PAM Mineral Tbk PT (+0.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.07 %: that much free cash flow PAM Mineral Tbk PT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PAM Mineral Tbk PT it is 320.36 IDR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 442.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PAM Mineral Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NICL trades above its calculated fair value: price 442.00 IDR, fair value 320.36 IDR, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NICL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (442.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (320.36 IDR). For PAM Mineral Tbk PT the two are 121.64 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PAM Mineral Tbk PT worth?
The market values PAM Mineral Tbk PT at about 5.3T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 442.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 320.36 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NICL?
Our models span a range for PAM Mineral Tbk PT: cautious scenario 181.69 IDR, base 320.36 IDR, optimistic 416.47 IDR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 442.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NICL?
PAM Mineral Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 320.36 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.8, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 13.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
Balance-sheet figures for PAM Mineral Tbk PT (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 27.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 84/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NICL from its 52-week high?
PAM Mineral Tbk PT trades at 442.00 IDR, about 76% below its 52-week high of 1,856 IDR and 3% above the low of 430.00 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 320.36 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PAM Mineral Tbk PT?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PAM Mineral Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 442.00 IDR, calculated fair value 320.36 IDR (−28%), Quality Score 84/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NICL calculated?
We run PAM Mineral Tbk PT through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 320.36 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PAM Mineral Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 442.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 320.36 IDR, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PAM Mineral Tbk PT right now?
A high-quality business (quality 84/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (416.47 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (181.69 IDR to 416.47 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of PAM Mineral Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
The market capitalisation of PAM Mineral Tbk PT is 5.3T IDR (≈ $528M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PAM Mineral Tbk PT is 4.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
Earnings per share at PAM Mineral Tbk PT are 25.40 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
The dividend yield of PAM Mineral Tbk PT is 8.5% (payout 147%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
The net margin of PAM Mineral Tbk PT is 23.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PAM Mineral Tbk PT is 27.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PAM Mineral Tbk PT is 29.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
The operating margin of PAM Mineral Tbk PT is 52.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
Revenue at PAM Mineral Tbk PT is growing −45.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL)?
Earnings per share at PAM Mineral Tbk PT are growing −38.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does PAM Mineral Tbk PT (NICL) hold?
PAM Mineral Tbk PT holds more cash than debt, 239B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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