Nickel Industries Limited (NICMF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $2.9B
Nickel Industries Limited
NICMF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $0.3700 to $0.4400 (+18.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −4.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($0.2200 to $0.6400). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0080 – $1.05 · fair‑value band $0.2200 – $0.6400 · the $0.6111 price screens above the $0.4400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Nickel Industries Limited (NICMF) currently trades at $0.6111, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4400, implying the stock looks roughly 28.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nickel Industries Limited generated revenue of $293M at a net margin of 42.3%. It earns a return on equity of 35.4%. Net debt stands at $847M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.2200 (bear case) to $0.6400 (bull case); at $0.6111, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -28%, NICMF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($0.4100) versus Earnings-Based ($0.0500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nickel Industries Limited engages in nickel ore mining, nickel pig iron, cobalt, and nickel matte production activities. It also produces mixed hydroxide precipitate for use in the electric vehicle supply chain. The company was formerly known as Nickel Mines Limited and changed its name to Nickel Industries Limited in June 2022.
Full company description
Nickel Industries Limited engages in nickel ore mining, nickel pig iron, cobalt, and nickel matte production activities. It also produces mixed hydroxide precipitate for use in the electric vehicle supply chain. The company was formerly known as Nickel Mines Limited and changed its name to Nickel Industries Limited in June 2022. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nickel Industries Limited reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $646M in FY2021, a compound +27.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$59.0M in FY2025.
NICMF screens 28% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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