Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Nickel Mines Limited $0.60, price $0.57, upside +5.3%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0080 – $1.05 · fair‑value band $0.4400 – $0.8800 · the $0.5700 price screens below the $0.6000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Nickel Industries Limited engages in nickel ore mining, nickel pig iron, cobalt, and nickel matte production activities. It also produces mixed hydroxide precipitate for use in the electric vehicle supply chain. The company was formerly known as Nickel Mines Limited and changed its name to Nickel Industries Limited in June 2022.
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Nickel Industries Limited engages in nickel ore mining, nickel pig iron, cobalt, and nickel matte production activities. It also produces mixed hydroxide precipitate for use in the electric vehicle supply chain. The company was formerly known as Nickel Mines Limited and changed its name to Nickel Industries Limited in June 2022. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF) currently trades at $0.5700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6000, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.7800 per share, and 7 of the 16 models we run sit above the $0.5700 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.0600, and 9 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.4400 (bear) to $0.8800 (bull), the price of $0.5700 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nickel Mines Limited reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $646M in FY2021, a compound +27.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$59.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.9B · P/S ratio 10.0 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin −3.5% · Return on equity 35.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% · Operating margin 33.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 5%, NICMF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4400Fair Value $0.6000Bull $0.8800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +80.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+125.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
34.4% (2020) → 7.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.2% a year for the price and +20.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Above median
Fair Value upside+5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)35% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)42% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6000 versus a price of $0.5700, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NICMF?
Our model-based fair value for Nickel Mines Limited is $0.6000 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.5700.
What is the quality score of NICMF?
Nickel Mines Limited has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6000 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4400, optimistic scenario $0.8800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nickel Mines Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6000, about +5% upside versus a price of $0.5700 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.4400, optimistic scenario $0.8800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Nickel Mines Limited pay a dividend?
Nickel Mines Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.60% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nickel Mines Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +21.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NICMF use?
Our models discount Nickel Mines Limited at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.93, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nickel Mines Limited that is +21.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nickel Mines Limited grew +26.7 % a year. The price currently implies +21.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nickel Mines Limited (+21.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.58 %: that much free cash flow Nickel Mines Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nickel Mines Limited it is $0.6000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.5700. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nickel Mines Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NICMF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.5700, fair value $0.6000, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NICMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6000). For Nickel Mines Limited the two are $0.0300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nickel Mines Limited worth?
The market values Nickel Mines Limited at about $2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.5700; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NICMF?
Our models span a range for Nickel Mines Limited: cautious scenario $0.4400, base $0.6000, optimistic $0.8800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.5700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nickel Mines Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 35.4%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NICMF from its 52-week high?
Nickel Mines Limited trades at $0.5700, about 29% below its 52-week high of $0.8000 and 36% above the low of $0.4190 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nickel Mines Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nickel Mines Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.5700, calculated fair value $0.6000 (+5%), Quality Score 41/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NICMF calculated?
We run Nickel Mines Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nickel Mines Limited currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $0.5700. Our model-based fair value is $0.6000, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nickel Mines Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($0.4400 to $0.8800) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Nickel Mines Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
The market capitalisation of Nickel Mines Limited is $2.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nickel Mines Limited is 10.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
Earnings per share at Nickel Mines Limited are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
The dividend yield of Nickel Mines Limited is 0.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
The net margin of Nickel Mines Limited is −3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nickel Mines Limited is 35.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nickel Mines Limited is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
The operating margin of Nickel Mines Limited is 33.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
Revenue at Nickel Mines Limited is growing +28.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF)?
Earnings per share at Nickel Mines Limited are growing +117% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nickel Mines Limited (NICMF) carry?
The net debt of Nickel Mines Limited is $847M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026