City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of City Retail Developments Tbk PT IDR 85, price IDR 169, upside -49.7%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 120.00 IDR – 350.00 IDR · fair‑value band 38.05 IDR – 184.19 IDR · the 169.00 IDR price screens above the 85.07 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT City Retail Developments Tbk, through its subsidiaries, owns, develops, and operates shopping malls in Indonesia. It operates through Shopping Mall, Hotel, Shophouse, and Others segments. The company also engages in the building construction; rental; shopping mall; and hotel management activities, as well as investment business.
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PT City Retail Developments Tbk, through its subsidiaries, owns, develops, and operates shopping malls in Indonesia. It operates through Shopping Mall, Hotel, Shophouse, and Others segments. The company also engages in the building construction; rental; shopping mall; and hotel management activities, as well as investment business. Its real estate portfolio includes land plots, condotel, and shop buildings. The company was formerly known as PT Nirvana Development Tbk and changed its name to PT City Retail Developments Tbk in May 2018. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT City Retail Developments Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Mega Inti Perdana Utama.
Stock analysis
City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) currently trades at 169.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 85.07 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 98.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 38.05 IDR (bear) to 184.19 IDR (bull), the price of 169.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
City Retail Developments Tbk PT reported revenue of 1.5T IDR in FY2025 versus 733B IDR in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was −200B IDR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.8T IDR (≈ $210M) · P/S ratio 2.28 · EPS (TTM) −8.75 IDR · Net margin −13.2% · Return on equity −10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 30.5% · Revenue (TTM) 1.6T IDR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −50%, NIRO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 38.05 IDRFair Value 85.07 IDRBull 184.19 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.6% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.2% (2020) → 16.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare City Retail Developments Tbk PT with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−48% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.75× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
EV/EBITDA8.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)83· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 85.07 IDR versus a price of 169.00 IDR, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NIRO?
Our model-based fair value for City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 85.07 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 169.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of NIRO?
City Retail Developments Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 85.07 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario 38.05 IDR, optimistic scenario 184.19 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the City Retail Developments Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 85.07 IDR, about −50% upside versus a price of 169.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 38.05 IDR, optimistic scenario 184.19 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
City Retail Developments Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For City Retail Developments Tbk PT it is 85.07 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 169.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is City Retail Developments Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NIRO trades above its calculated fair value: price 169.00 IDR, fair value 85.07 IDR, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NIRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (169.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (85.07 IDR). For City Retail Developments Tbk PT the two are 83.93 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is City Retail Developments Tbk PT worth?
The market values City Retail Developments Tbk PT at about 3.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 169.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 85.07 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NIRO?
Our models span a range for City Retail Developments Tbk PT: cautious scenario 38.05 IDR, base 85.07 IDR, optimistic 184.19 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 169.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for City Retail Developments Tbk PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −10.1%, debt of 3.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NIRO from its 52-week high?
City Retail Developments Tbk PT trades at 169.00 IDR, about 52% below its 52-week high of 350.00 IDR and 41% above the low of 120.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 85.07 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to City Retail Developments Tbk PT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is City Retail Developments Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 169.00 IDR, calculated fair value 85.07 IDR (−50%), Quality Score 41/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NIRO calculated?
We run City Retail Developments Tbk PT through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 85.07 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. City Retail Developments Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 169.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 85.07 IDR, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with City Retail Developments Tbk PT right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (38.05 IDR to 184.19 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of City Retail Developments Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The market capitalisation of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 3.8T IDR (≈ $210M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 2.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Earnings per share at City Retail Developments Tbk PT are −8.75 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The net margin of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is −13.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is −10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The operating margin of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 30.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Revenue at City Retail Developments Tbk PT is growing +16.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) generate?
The free cash flow of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is −40.2B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) carry?
The net debt of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 6.9T IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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