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City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of City Retail Developments Tbk PT stock IDR 85, price IDR 120, that is 29.1% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 3 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate ID · ISIN ID1000124605

CR City Retail Developments Tbk PT logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

City Retail Developments Tbk PT

NIRO · JK
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 29% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow over the last twelve months
Quality 41/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +23.4 %/yr in IDR)
Fair value 85.07 IDR · Overvalued
Loss-making · -13.1% net margin (TTM)
High debt
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 31/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

350.00 IDR 116.00 IDR Fair Value 85.07 IDR Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 116.00 IDR – 350.00 IDR · fair‑value band 38.05 IDR – 184.19 IDR · the 120.00 IDR price screens above the 85.07 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

PT City Retail Developments Tbk, through its subsidiaries, owns, develops, and operates shopping malls in Indonesia. It operates through Shopping Mall, Hotel, Shophouse, and Others segments.

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The company also engages in the building construction; rental; shopping mall; and hotel management activities, as well as investment business. Its real estate portfolio includes land plots, condotel, and shop buildings.

The company was formerly known as PT Nirvana Development Tbk and changed its name to PT City Retail Developments Tbk in May 2018. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT City Retail Developments Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Mega Inti Perdana Utama.

Stock analysis

City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) currently trades at 120.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 85.07 IDR, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: 38.05 IDR (bear) to 184.19 IDR (bull), the price of 120.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

City Retail Developments Tbk PT reported revenue of 1.5T IDR in FY2025 versus 733B IDR in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was −200B IDR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 2.7T IDR (≈ $148M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.91 · EPS (TTM) −10.15 IDR · Net margin −13.1% · Return on equity −11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 41.7% · Revenue (TTM) 1.6T IDR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −29%, NIRO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 38.05 IDR Fair Value 85.07 IDR Bull 184.19 IDR
Price 120.00 IDR · Downside -29.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA n/a 85.07 IDR 184.19 IDR 62
EV/EBIT n/a n/a 3.63 IDR 61
NCAV (Graham) 38.05 IDR 50.98 IDR 76.09 IDR 54
All 3 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a n/a 3.63 IDR 61
EV/EBITDA n/a 85.07 IDR 184.19 IDR 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 38.05 IDR 50.98 IDR 76.09 IDR 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 5
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 5
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 6
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 94
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 7
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.6% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.2% (2020) → 16.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NIRO screens overvalued: fair value 29% below the price. Compare with CBRE Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 472 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −29.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −13.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 41.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.75× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.56× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.66× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 55
FUTURE (revenue growth)41 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 66

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vonovia SE VNA €16.90 €36.43 +116% vs NIRO
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $370.80 $529.78 +43% vs NIRO
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$41.64 HK$55.21 +33% vs NIRO
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €26.68 €23.62 −11% vs NIRO
Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997 HK$32.54 HK$27.21 −16% vs NIRO
CBRE Group CBRE $135.51 $89.81 −34% vs NIRO
KE Holdings BEKE $18.85 $7.33 −61% vs NIRO
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.36 SGD 0.7800 SGD −67% vs NIRO
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$26.36 HK$5.88 −78% vs NIRO
CoStar Group CSGP $30.55 $6.09 −80% vs NIRO

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City Retail Developments Tbk PT: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "City Retail Developments Tbk PT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NIRO

Frequently asked questions

Is City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 85.07 IDR versus a price of 120.00 IDR, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NIRO?
Our model-based fair value for City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 85.07 IDR (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 120.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of NIRO?
City Retail Developments Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 85.07 IDR (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario 38.05 IDR, optimistic scenario 184.19 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the City Retail Developments Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 85.07 IDR, about 29% lower versus a price of 120.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 38.05 IDR, optimistic scenario 184.19 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
City Retail Developments Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6T IDR (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For City Retail Developments Tbk PT it is 85.07 IDR per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 120.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is City Retail Developments Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, NIRO trades above its calculated fair value: price 120.00 IDR, fair value 85.07 IDR, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NIRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (120.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (85.07 IDR). For City Retail Developments Tbk PT the two are 34.93 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is City Retail Developments Tbk PT worth?
The market values City Retail Developments Tbk PT at about 2.7T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 120.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 85.07 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NIRO?
Our models span a range for City Retail Developments Tbk PT: cautious scenario 38.05 IDR, base 85.07 IDR, optimistic 184.19 IDR per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 120.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for City Retail Developments Tbk PT (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −11.3%, debt of 3.75 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NIRO from its 52-week high?
City Retail Developments Tbk PT trades at 120.00 IDR, about 66% below its 52-week high of 350.00 IDR and 3% above the low of 116.00 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 85.07 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to City Retail Developments Tbk PT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is City Retail Developments Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 120.00 IDR, calculated fair value 85.07 IDR (−29%), Quality Score 41/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NIRO calculated?
We run City Retail Developments Tbk PT through 3 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 85.07 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. City Retail Developments Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 120.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 85.07 IDR, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with City Retail Developments Tbk PT right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (38.05 IDR to 184.19 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of City Retail Developments Tbk PT

How large is the market capitalisation of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The market capitalisation of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 2.7T IDR (≈ $148M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 1.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Earnings per share at City Retail Developments Tbk PT are −10.15 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The net margin of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is −13.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is −11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
The operating margin of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 41.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO)?
Revenue at City Retail Developments Tbk PT is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) generate?
The free cash flow of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is −40.2B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does City Retail Developments Tbk PT (NIRO) carry?
The net debt of City Retail Developments Tbk PT is 6.9T IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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