Nidec Corporation (NJDCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nidec Corporation stock $3.38, price $2.50, upside +35.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.28 – $15.10 · fair‑value band $3.20 – $4.36 · the $2.50 price screens below the $3.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Nidec Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells motors, electronics and optical components, and other related products in Japan and internationally.
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The company offers medium- and large-size motors, small-size and precision motors, fans and blowers, motor-related products, units and modules, automotive components, mechanical equipment/machine tools, inspection and measuring equipment, electronic devices, as well as mold, molding, cutting, and machining components.
Its products are used for applications in robotics, IoT products, home appliances, automotive components, logistics/agriculture, information technology, office automation, mobile optical components, medical and health care products, housing equipment, commercial and professional products, industrial machinery, and processing/inspection equipment.
The company was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Kyoto, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nidec Corporation (NJDCY) currently trades at $2.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.38, implying the stock looks roughly 26% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.39 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the $2.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4600, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $3.20 (bear) to $4.36 (bull), the price of $2.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nidec Corporation reported revenue of ¥2.7T in FY2026 versus ¥1.9T in FY2022, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was −¥562B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $16.8B Large · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin −20.8% · Return on equity −49.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −87.9% · Revenue (TTM) ¥2.7T · Revenue growth (YoY) +9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 35%, NJDCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.20Fair Value $3.38Bull$4.36
Price $2.50 · Upside +35.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$3.07$4.39$6.5278
Growth DCF$3.07$4.30$6.2476
5Y EBITDA Exit$3.41$5.10$7.1972
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$3.07$4.39$6.5278
5Y Revenue Exit$2.58$3.45$4.5971
5Y EBITDA Exit$3.41$5.10$7.1972
10Y Revenue Exit$2.70$3.56$4.7965
10Y EBITDA Exit$3.27$4.73$6.8766
Earnings-Based
EPV$1.78$1.87$1.9570
Multiples
EV/EBIT$1.30$1.86$2.4162
EV/EBITDA$2.28$3.17$4.0564
EV/Revenue$0.8300$1.33$1.8450
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.3400$0.4600$0.680051
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$3.07$4.30$6.2476
Rev-Margin DCF$2.58$3.45$4.5471
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$1.78$1.87$1.9570
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.9% (2021) → 3.5% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.9% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The business draws a moderate moat from manufacturing scale in motors yet remains constrained by typical industrial margins and limited pricing power.
Main risk: Chinese manufacturers with lower costs and government support could continue squeezing prices and margins in appliance and automotive motor segments, complicating the shift to higher-value areas.
Bull case: By reallocating resources from low-margin units to AI data center cooling modules and energy systems Nidec could leverage its manufacturing scale to secure leading positions in growing high-value markets.
Bear case: If competition from lower-cost Chinese suppliers persists across motor applications the company might face prolonged margin pressure and slower progress in its targeted high-growth segments despite restructuring efforts.
Nidec plans to exit low-margin appliance and automotive motor businesses and redirect investment toward AI data centers, semiconductors and energy. New leadership must first restore reliable financial statements after the auditor issued a disclaimer. Will resolving the governance issues unlock faster progress in high-growth areas or keep the company tied down in restructuring?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 814 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+35.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−18.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−20.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−87.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.33× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.98× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)25.7× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nidec Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NJDCY
Frequently asked questions
Is Nidec Corporation (NJDCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.38 versus a price of $2.50, about +35% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NJDCY?
Our model-based fair value for Nidec Corporation is $3.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.50.
What is the quality score of NJDCY?
Nidec Corporation has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.20, optimistic scenario $4.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nidec Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.38, about +35% upside versus a price of $2.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.20, optimistic scenario $4.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
Nidec Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.7T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Nidec Corporation pay a dividend?
Nidec Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.12% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
Nidec Corporation has a dividend yield of 2.1%. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2001. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.52 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nidec Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NJDCY use?
Our models discount Nidec Corporation at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.07, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nidec Corporation that is -0.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nidec Corporation (NJDCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nidec Corporation grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -0.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nidec Corporation (-0.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.69 %: that much free cash flow Nidec Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nidec Corporation it is $3.38 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $2.50. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Nidec Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NJDCY trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.50, fair value $3.38, a gap of about +35% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NJDCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.38). For Nidec Corporation the two are $0.8840 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nidec Corporation worth?
The market values Nidec Corporation at about $16.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $2.50; our models calculate a fair value of $3.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NJDCY?
Our models span a range for Nidec Corporation: cautious scenario $3.20, base $3.38, optimistic $4.36 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $2.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NJDCY?
The PEG ratio of Nidec Corporation is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nidec Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −49.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NJDCY from its 52-week high?
Nidec Corporation trades at $2.50, about 50% below its 52-week high of $5.00 and 10% above the low of $2.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nidec Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nidec Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $2.50, calculated fair value $3.38 (+35%), Quality Score 48/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NJDCY calculated?
We run Nidec Corporation through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Nidec Corporation currently trades 26% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $2.50. Our model-based fair value is $3.38, about +35% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nidec Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (48/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY) come from?
Earnings per share at Nidec Corporation grew +6.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.0 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate −1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nidec Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
The market capitalisation of Nidec Corporation is $16.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the dividend yield of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
The dividend yield of Nidec Corporation is 2.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
The net margin of Nidec Corporation is −20.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nidec Corporation is −49.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nidec Corporation is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
The operating margin of Nidec Corporation is −87.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
Revenue at Nidec Corporation is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nidec Corporation (NJDCY)?
Earnings per share at Nidec Corporation are growing +109% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nidec Corporation (NJDCY) carry?
The net debt of Nidec Corporation is ¥262B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026