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New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of New Murchison Gold Ltd A$0.02, price A$0.08, upside -75.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU

NM Thin data Sep 23, 2026

New Murchison Gold Ltd

NMG · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0200 · Strongly overvalued (−75%)
!Quality 45/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +437.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 57.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
✓Wide moat 87/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$0.0860 A$0.0020 Fair Value A$0.0200 Jan 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0020 – A$0.0860 · the A$0.0810 price screens above the A$0.0200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

New Murchison Gold Limited engages in the mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold. Its flagship property is the Garden Gully property consisting of 677 square kilometers tenure package located in the Abbotts Greenstone Belt north of Meekatharra.

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New Murchison Gold Limited engages in the mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold. Its flagship property is the Garden Gully property consisting of 677 square kilometers tenure package located in the Abbotts Greenstone Belt north of Meekatharra. The company was formerly known as Ora Gold Limited and changed its name to New Murchison Gold Limited in November 2024. New Murchison Gold Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG) currently trades at A$0.0810, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0200, implying the stock looks roughly 305.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.0200 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the A$0.0810 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.0100, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

New Murchison Gold Ltd reported revenue of A$18.0M in FY2025 versus A$2.0K in FY2021, a compound +873.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$4.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$735M (≈ $517M) · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 2.16 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Net margin 26.7% · Return on equity 116% · Return on assets (EBIT) −150% · Operating margin 70.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 200% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −75%, NMG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0200 Fair Value A$0.0200 Bull A$0.0200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0098 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV n/a A$0.0100 A$0.0100 70
EV/EBITDA A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 67
ROIC Compounder n/a A$0.0100 A$0.0100 67
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd n/a A$0.0200 A$0.0300 60
Lynch FV A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0200 60
PEG = 1.0 A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0200 56
EPV n/a A$0.0100 A$0.0100 70
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 63
P/B Multiple A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 55
EV/EBIT A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 66
EV/EBITDA A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0100 67
EV/Revenue n/a n/a A$0.0100 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) n/a n/a A$0.0100 51
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder n/a A$0.0100 A$0.0100 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0200 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 96
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+130,527.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+437.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +54.9% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35,966.9% (2020) → 25.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

NMG screens 305% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Above median
Fair Value upside −75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 116% · Top 25%
Return on assets 68% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 58% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 70% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −15% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 8.88× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.36× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.68× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
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Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥36.66 ¥54.86 +50%

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A$0.0200 −305%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "New Murchison Gold Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NMG

Frequently asked questions

Is New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0200 versus a price of A$0.0810, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NMG?
Our model-based fair value for New Murchison Gold Ltd is A$0.0200 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0810.
What is the quality score of NMG?
New Murchison Gold Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0200 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the New Murchison Gold Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0200, about −75% upside versus a price of A$0.0810 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For New Murchison Gold Ltd it is A$0.0200 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0810. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is New Murchison Gold Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NMG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0810, fair value A$0.0200, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0810); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0200). For New Murchison Gold Ltd the two are A$0.0610 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is New Murchison Gold Ltd worth?
The market values New Murchison Gold Ltd at about A$735M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0810; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0200 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of NMG?
New Murchison Gold Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.0200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 8.9, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
What is the PEG ratio of NMG?
The PEG ratio of New Murchison Gold Ltd is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for New Murchison Gold Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 116.5%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NMG from its 52-week high?
New Murchison Gold Ltd trades at A$0.0810, about 6% below its 52-week high of A$0.0860 and 200% above the low of A$0.0270 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to New Murchison Gold Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is New Murchison Gold Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0810, calculated fair value A$0.0200 (−75%), Quality Score 45/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NMG calculated?
We run New Murchison Gold Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. New Murchison Gold Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.0810. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0200, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with New Murchison Gold Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of New Murchison Gold Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
The market capitalisation of New Murchison Gold Ltd is A$735M (≈ $517M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of New Murchison Gold Ltd is 2.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
Earnings per share at New Murchison Gold Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
The net margin of New Murchison Gold Ltd is 26.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of New Murchison Gold Ltd is 116% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of New Murchison Gold Ltd is −150% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
The operating margin of New Murchison Gold Ltd is 70.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG)?
Revenue at New Murchison Gold Ltd is growing −14.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3,522%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG) generate?
The free cash flow of New Murchison Gold Ltd is −A$10.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does New Murchison Gold Ltd (NMG) hold?
New Murchison Gold Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$19.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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