New Murchison Gold Limited (NMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$478M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +33.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0247). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0020 – A$0.0750 · the A$0.0560 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
New Murchison Gold Limited (NMG) currently trades at A$0.0560, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, implying the stock looks roughly 54.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, New Murchison Gold Limited generated revenue of A$18.0M at a net margin of 26.7%. Revenue declined 14.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$19.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 250% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -54%, NMG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (A$0.0200) versus Multiples (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
New Murchison Gold Limited engages in the mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold. Its flagship property is the Garden Gully property consisting of 677 square kilometers tenure package located in the Abbotts Greenstone Belt north of Meekatharra.
Full company description
New Murchison Gold Limited engages in the mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company primarily explores for gold. Its flagship property is the Garden Gully property consisting of 677 square kilometers tenure package located in the Abbotts Greenstone Belt north of Meekatharra. The company was formerly known as Ora Gold Limited and changed its name to New Murchison Gold Limited in November 2024. New Murchison Gold Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
New Murchison Gold Limited reported revenue of A$18.0M in FY2025 versus A$2.0K in FY2021, a compound +873.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$4.8M in FY2025.
NMG screens 54% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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