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Nelnet Inc (NNI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nelnet Inc $108, price $125, upside -13.6%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US64031N1081

NI Nelnet Inc logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Nelnet Inc

NNI · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $108.03 · Overvalued (−14%)
✓Quality 66/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 25.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·0.99% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Moderate moat 62/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Weak on valuation: 15 out of 100
!Weak on balance sheet: 8 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 20 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$143.87 $69.18 Fair Value $108.03 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $69.18 – $143.87 · fair‑value band $82.77 – $191.66 · the $125.03 price screens above the $108.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Nelnet, Inc. engages in loan servicing, education technology services, and payment businesses worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Loan Servicing and Systems, Education Technology Services and Payments, Asset Generation and Management, and Nelnet Bank.

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Nelnet, Inc. engages in loan servicing, education technology services, and payment businesses worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Loan Servicing and Systems, Education Technology Services and Payments, Asset Generation and Management, and Nelnet Bank. The Loan Servicing and Systems segment provides loan conversion, application processing, borrower updates, customer, payment processing, due diligence procedures, funds management reconciliation, and claim processing services. This segment also offers student loan servicing software; and business process outsourcing services primarily in contact center management, such as inbound calls, outreach campaigns and sales, and interacting with customers through multi-channels, and processing and administrative services. The Education Technology Services and Payments segment provides financial management services; school information system software; a donation platform; education technology solutions; and customized professional development and coaching, and advanced learning and educational instruction services. This segment also offers tuition payment plans, and service and technology for student billings, payments, and refunds; solutions for in-person, online, and mobile payment experiences on campus; payment processing services, such as credit card and electronic transfer; learning management system; an integrated commerce payment platform; and a school management platform that provides administrative, information and financial management, and communication functions for K-12 schools. The Asset Generation and Management segment invest, allocates an manages loan assts. The Nelnet Bank segment operates as an internet industrial bank. It also offers investment advisory, investment, and reinsurance services, as well as engages in the real estate investment; and solar engineering, procurement, and construction businesses. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Lincoln, Nebraska.

Stock analysis

Nelnet Inc (NNI) currently trades at $125.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $108.03, implying the stock looks roughly 15.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $142.04 per share, and 4 of the 12 models we run sit above the $125.03 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $16.89, and 8 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $82.77 (bear) to $191.66 (bull), the price of $125.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Nelnet Inc reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $428M in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $4.5B · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 2.21 · EPS (TTM) $11.50 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 18.9% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −14%, NNI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $82.77 Fair Value $108.03 Bull $191.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.51 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $33.97 $122.29 $243.63 71
Residual Income $91.34 $105.82 $209.13 71
Owner Earnings $42.91 $149.39 $305.32 69
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $42.91 $149.39 $305.32 69
5Y P/E Exit n/a $39.16 $106.04 67
10Y P/E Exit n/a $54.12 $125.65 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $80.20 $249.56 $331.90 62
Lynch FV $54.24 $77.49 $100.74 58
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $10.39 $20.71 $31.36 64
DDM Multi-Stage $10.39 $16.89 $21.86 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple $114.99 $153.33 $191.66 61
P/B Multiple $106.53 $142.04 $177.55 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $50.73 $67.98 $101.46 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $33.97 $122.29 $243.63 71
Rev-Margin DCF n/a n/a $33.51 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $91.34 $105.82 $209.13 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 85
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 16
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+4.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 7%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 12%
2025 sits 135% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.1% a year for the price.

NNI screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 330 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −14% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 25% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 21% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.85× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.23× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.76× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 11.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 9.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.46× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)15 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)43 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)8 · sector 59
DIVIDEND (yield)20 · sector 66

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Visa Inc V $362.04 $227.35 −37%
Mastercard Incorporated MA $555.89 $356.78 −36%
American Express Company AXP $305.07 $206.40 −32%
Capital One Financial Corporation COF $200.55 $125.36 −37%
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE ₹1,043 ₹1,101 +6%
PayPal Holdings PYPL $52.89 $99.46 +88%
Affirm Holdings AFRM $71.77 $16.24 −77%
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN ₹1,011 ₹1,374 +36%
Synchrony Financial, SYF $72.67 $137.28 +89%
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI $17.16 $5.57 −68%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nelnet Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NNI

Frequently asked questions

Is Nelnet Inc (NNI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $108.03 versus a price of $125.03, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NNI?
Our model-based fair value for Nelnet Inc is $108.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $125.03.
What is the quality score of NNI?
Nelnet Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $108.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $82.77, optimistic scenario $191.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nelnet Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $108.03, about −14% upside versus a price of $125.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $82.77, optimistic scenario $191.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
Nelnet Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Nelnet Inc pay a dividend?
Nelnet Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nelnet Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NNI use?
Our models discount Nelnet Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nelnet Inc that is +14.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nelnet Inc (NNI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nelnet Inc grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies +14.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nelnet Inc (NNI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nelnet Inc (+14.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.73 %: that much free cash flow Nelnet Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nelnet Inc it is $108.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $125.03. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nelnet Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NNI trades above its calculated fair value: price $125.03, fair value $108.03, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NNI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($125.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($108.03). For Nelnet Inc the two are $17.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nelnet Inc worth?
The market values Nelnet Inc at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $125.03; our models calculate a fair value of $108.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NNI?
Our models span a range for Nelnet Inc: cautious scenario $82.77, base $108.03, optimistic $191.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $125.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NNI?
Nelnet Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $108.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.2, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 9.8.
What is the PEG ratio of NNI?
The PEG ratio of Nelnet Inc is 0.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nelnet Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 1.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NNI from its 52-week high?
Nelnet Inc trades at $125.03, about 13% below its 52-week high of $143.87 and 3% above the low of $121.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $108.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nelnet Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nelnet Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $125.03, calculated fair value $108.03 (−14%), Quality Score 66/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NNI calculated?
We run Nelnet Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $108.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nelnet Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $125.03. Our model-based fair value is $108.03, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nelnet Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($82.77 to $191.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Nelnet Inc (NNI) come from?
Earnings per share at Nelnet Inc grew +0.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin −4.8 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Nelnet Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
The market capitalisation of Nelnet Inc is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nelnet Inc is 2.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
Earnings per share at Nelnet Inc are $11.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
The dividend yield of Nelnet Inc is 1.0% (payout 10.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
The net margin of Nelnet Inc is 18.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nelnet Inc is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nelnet Inc is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
The operating margin of Nelnet Inc is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
Revenue at Nelnet Inc is growing −7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nelnet Inc (NNI)?
Earnings per share at Nelnet Inc are growing −12.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nelnet Inc (NNI) carry?
The net debt of Nelnet Inc is $6.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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