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Monex Group (NNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Monex Group stock €3.20, price €3.49, that is 8.4% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services DE · Home Japan · ISIN JP3869970008

MG Monex Group logo Broad data Nov 7, 2026

Monex Group

NNL · F
Fairly valued, sideways

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Solidly profitable · 12.2% net margin (TTM)
5.0% dividend yield · Sustainable
Broad data
Fair value €3.20 · Fairly valued
Quality 59/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.6 %/yr in JPY)
Moderate moat 49/100
Trails peers (4/14)
Price via web search⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€6.93 €2.33 Fair Value €3.20 Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €2.33 – €6.93 · fair‑value band €2.34 – €4.05 · the €3.49 price screens above the €3.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Monex Group, Inc., an online financial institution, provides retail online brokerage services in Japan, the United States, and internationally.

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The company offers M&A advisory; forex and cryptocurrency exchange; securities investment; investor and investment education; asset and wealth management; education and child developmental support system; life settlement business; Genomic data platform business; investment fund and portfolio management, and exempt market dealership; investment advisory; private banking; custodial trust for the administration and disposition of trust assets; venture capital; and human resource development services.

It also engages in the development of trading technologies; research and development projects; development and operation of CraftChat, a marketing SaaS; management and utilization services for genomic, medical, and healthcare data; research, design, study, development, and consultation on cryptocurrency; and purchase and resale of insurance contracts.

The company was formerly known as Monex Beans Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Monex Group, Inc. in July 2008. Monex Group, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.

Stock analysis

Monex Group (NNL) currently trades at €3.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.20, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.2%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €3.55 per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the €3.49 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.28, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €2.34 (bear) to €4.05 (bull), the price of €3.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Monex Group reported revenue of ¥89.8B in FY2026 versus ¥96.3B in FY2022, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥10.9B in FY2026, compounding −4.3%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €878M Small · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 1.70 · EPS (TTM) €0.2500 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 12.2% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −8%, NNL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €2.34 Fair Value €3.20 Bull €4.05
Price €3.49 · Downside -8.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0464 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth DCF €2.43 €3.83 €5.60 77
Residual Income €2.34 €2.51 €2.78 76
Owner Earnings €2.29 €3.84 €5.89 75
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €2.29 €3.84 €5.89 75
5Y P/E Exit €1.40 €2.61 €3.83 69
10Y P/E Exit €1.76 €2.83 €4.05 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €1.67 €4.62 €6.06 65
Lynch FV €0.9200 €1.32 €1.71 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €1.87 €3.49 €4.95 67
DDM Multi-Stage €1.87 €2.81 €3.70 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €2.40 €3.20 €4.00 63
P/B Multiple €2.00 €2.66 €3.33 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.9500 €1.28 €1.90 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €2.43 €3.83 €5.60 77
Rev-Margin DCF €1.74 €3.27 €4.99 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.34 €2.51 €2.78 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 29
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 68
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 24
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 80
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 87
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 39
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 29
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 88
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.3% vs 44.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 26%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −8.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.3% · Below median
Return on assets 1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 12.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 11.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 4.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.89× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 14.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 1.72× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 12.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)22 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)21 · sector 68
PAST (return on equity)33 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 47

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $181.44 $260.72 +44% vs NNL
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $91.49 $117.60 +29% vs NNL
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.46 ¥18.02 +9% vs NNL
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.42 $10.17 +8% vs NNL
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $865.82 $766.86 −11% vs NNL
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.72 ¥20.42 −21% vs NNL
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $80.91 $47.60 −41% vs NNL
Macquarie Group MQG A$247.94 A$123.84 −50% vs NNL
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.78 ¥6.72 −64% vs NNL
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $75.82 $17.48 −77% vs NNL

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Monex Group: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Monex Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NNL

Frequently asked questions

Is Monex Group (NNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.20 versus a price of €3.49, about 8% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NNL?
Our model-based fair value for Monex Group is €3.20 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €3.49.
What is the quality score of NNL?
Monex Group has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Monex Group (NNL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.20 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.34, optimistic scenario €4.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Monex Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.20, about 8% lower versus a price of €3.49 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €2.34, optimistic scenario €4.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Monex Group (NNL)?
Monex Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥90.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Monex Group pay a dividend?
Monex Group currently shows a dividend yield of 4.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Monex Group (NNL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Monex Group pays a dividend of €0.174 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2010. The payout ratio is 70.7% of earnings. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What is the intrinsic value of Monex Group (NNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Monex Group it is €3.20 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €3.49. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Monex Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, NNL trades above its calculated fair value: price €3.49, fair value €3.20, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€3.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.20). For Monex Group the two are €0.2937 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Monex Group worth?
The market values Monex Group at about €878M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €3.49; our models calculate a fair value of €3.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NNL?
Our models span a range for Monex Group: cautious scenario €2.34, base €3.20, optimistic €4.05 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €3.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NNL?
Monex Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Monex Group (NNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Monex Group (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NNL from its 52-week high?
Monex Group trades at €3.49, about 13% below its 52-week high of €4.02 and 9% above the low of €3.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Monex Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Monex Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €3.49, calculated fair value €3.20 (−8%), Quality Score 59/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NNL calculated?
We run Monex Group through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €3.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Monex Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Monex Group (NNL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €3.49. Our model-based fair value is €3.20, about 8% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Monex Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Monex Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Monex Group (NNL)?
The market capitalisation of Monex Group is €878M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Monex Group (NNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Monex Group is 1.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Monex Group (NNL)?
Earnings per share at Monex Group are €0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Monex Group (NNL)?
The dividend yield of Monex Group is 5.0% (payout 69.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Monex Group (NNL)?
The net margin of Monex Group is 12.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Monex Group (NNL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Monex Group is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Monex Group (NNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Monex Group is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Monex Group (NNL)?
The operating margin of Monex Group is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Monex Group (NNL)?
Revenue at Monex Group is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Monex Group (NNL)?
Earnings per share at Monex Group are growing +3.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Monex Group (NNL) generate?
The free cash flow of Monex Group is ¥12.8B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Monex Group (NNL) carry?
The net debt of Monex Group is ¥59.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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