Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nokia Oyj €3.15, price €9.45, upside -66.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.59 – €14.73 · fair‑value band €2.76 – €3.94 · the €9.45 price screens above the €3.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies.
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Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The company offers fixed network solutions, such as fiber and copper technologies, access infrastructure, in-home Wi-Fi solutions, and cloud and virtualization services; IP network solutions, which delivers IP edge routing and data center networking solutions for residential, mobile, enterprise, and cloud applications; and optical networks solutions, which provides optical transport networks for metro, regional, and long-haul applications. It also provides mobile technology products and services for radio access networks and microwave radio links for transport networks; and network management solutions, as well as network planning, optimization, network deployment, and technical support services. In addition, the company offers cloud and network services, including open, secure, automated, and scalable software and solutions; and 5G core, secure autonomous networks, private wireless and industrial edge, and network APIs. Further, it licenses intellectual property, including patents, technologies, and the Nokia brand. The company serves its products and services to defense communications energy and resources, enterprise and industrial campus, private networks, public sector, and transportation industries. Nokia Oyj was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Stock analysis
Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) currently trades at €9.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.15, implying the stock looks roughly 199.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €4.43 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the €9.45 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €0.9800, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2.76 (bear) to €3.94 (bull), the price of €9.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nokia Oyj reported revenue of €19.9B in FY2025 versus €22.2B in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was €629M in FY2025, compounding −21.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €60.8B · P/E ratio 67.5 · P/S ratio 2.13 · EPS (TTM) €0.1400 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 143% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −67%, NOKIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €2.76Fair Value €3.15Bull €3.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs −17%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.2% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 311 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−67% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)67.5× · Pricier than median
P/B3.30× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.46× · Pricier than median
P/FCF47.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA26.1× · Pricier than median
PEG1.21× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)12· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)30· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nokia Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NOKIA
Frequently asked questions
Is Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.15 versus a price of €9.45, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOKIA?
Our model-based fair value for Nokia Oyj is €3.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €9.45.
What is the quality score of NOKIA?
Nokia Oyj has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.76, optimistic scenario €3.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nokia Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.15, about −67% upside versus a price of €9.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.76, optimistic scenario €3.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Nokia Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €20.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Nokia Oyj pay a dividend?
Nokia Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nokia Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +16.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOKIA use?
Our models discount Nokia Oyj at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nokia Oyj that is +16.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nokia Oyj grew -1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +16.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nokia Oyj (+16.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.82 %: that much free cash flow Nokia Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nokia Oyj it is €3.15 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €9.45. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nokia Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NOKIA trades above its calculated fair value: price €9.45, fair value €3.15, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOKIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.15). For Nokia Oyj the two are €6.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nokia Oyj worth?
The market values Nokia Oyj at about €60.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €9.45; our models calculate a fair value of €3.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOKIA?
Our models span a range for Nokia Oyj: cautious scenario €2.76, base €3.15, optimistic €3.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €9.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOKIA?
Nokia Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 67.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 3.3, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 26.1.
What is the PEG ratio of NOKIA?
The PEG ratio of Nokia Oyj is 1.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nokia Oyj (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOKIA from its 52-week high?
Nokia Oyj trades at €9.45, about 36% below its 52-week high of €14.73 and 143% above the low of €3.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nokia Oyj?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nokia Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €9.45, calculated fair value €3.15 (−67%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOKIA calculated?
We run Nokia Oyj through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nokia Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €9.45. Our model-based fair value is €3.15, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nokia Oyj right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€3.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Nokia Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
The market capitalisation of Nokia Oyj is €60.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nokia Oyj is 2.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Earnings per share at Nokia Oyj are €0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 67.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
The dividend yield of Nokia Oyj is 1.5% (payout 100%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
The net margin of Nokia Oyj is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nokia Oyj is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nokia Oyj is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
The operating margin of Nokia Oyj is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Revenue at Nokia Oyj is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nokia Oyj (NOKIA)?
Earnings per share at Nokia Oyj are growing −40.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nokia Oyj (NOKIA) hold?
Nokia Oyj holds more cash than debt, €252M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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