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Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Northern Ocean Ltd NOK 6.15, price NOK 7.36, upside -16.4%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · NO · ISIN BMG6682J1036

NO Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Northern Ocean Ltd

NOL · OL

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value kr 6.15 · Overvalued (−16%)
!Quality 33/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +24.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -50.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/10)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 11 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 16.24 kr 5.30 Fair Value kr 6.15 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 5.30 – kr 16.24 · fair‑value band kr 4.59 – kr 6.15 · the kr 7.36 price screens above the kr 6.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Northern Ocean Ltd. provides offshore contract drilling services for the oil and gas industry worldwide. The company owns and operates one semi-submersible rig. It also invests in power generation solutions. The company offers integrated drilling services, including rig preparation, mobilization, demobilization, and add-on services.

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Northern Ocean Ltd. provides offshore contract drilling services for the oil and gas industry worldwide. The company owns and operates one semi-submersible rig. It also invests in power generation solutions. The company offers integrated drilling services, including rig preparation, mobilization, demobilization, and add-on services. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Stock analysis

Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL) currently trades at kr 7.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 6.15, implying the stock looks roughly 19.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: kr 4.59 (bear) to kr 6.15 (bull), the price of kr 7.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Northern Ocean Ltd reported revenue of $279M in FY2025 versus $67.8M in FY2021, a compound +42.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$103M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 2.2B NOK (≈ $234M) · P/S ratio 9.90 · EPS (TTM) kr −3.54 · Net margin −36.7% · Return on equity −30.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.7% · Operating margin −176% · Revenue (TTM) 229M NOK.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −16%, NOL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 4.59 Fair Value kr 6.15 Bull kr 6.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA kr 0.2600 kr 0.3100 kr 0.3500 67
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.5700 kr 0.7600 kr 1.14 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA kr 0.2600 kr 0.3100 kr 0.3500 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 0.5700 kr 0.7600 kr 1.14 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−23.6% (2020) → −16.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NOL screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Noble Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Drilling · 34 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −16% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −50% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −176% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −77% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.68× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.02× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)11 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Noble Corporation NE $45.04 $46.18 +3%
Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation 600871 ¥2.12 ¥0.5200 −75%
Transocean Ltd RIG $5.49 $4.88 −11%
Valaris Limited VAL $82.72 $58.91 −29%
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN $11.14 $22.36 +101%
Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP $39.79 $22.68 −43%
Seadrill Limited SDRL $46.85 $10.17 −78%
Odfjell Drilling Ltd ODL kr 102.80 kr 68.12 −34%
Arabian Drilling Company 2381 94.10 SAR 20.01 SAR −79%
Borr Drilling Limited BORR kr 41.67 kr 56.75 +36%

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Northern Ocean Ltd · Fair Value
kr 6.15 −20%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northern Ocean Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NOL

Frequently asked questions

Is Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 6.15 versus a price of kr 7.36, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NOL?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Ocean Ltd is kr 6.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 7.36.
What is the quality score of NOL?
Northern Ocean Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 6.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 4.59, optimistic scenario kr 6.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Ocean Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 6.15, about −16% upside versus a price of kr 7.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 4.59, optimistic scenario kr 6.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
Northern Ocean Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 229M NOK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Ocean Ltd it is kr 6.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 7.36. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northern Ocean Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NOL trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 7.36, fair value kr 6.15, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 7.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 6.15). For Northern Ocean Ltd the two are kr 1.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Ocean Ltd worth?
The market values Northern Ocean Ltd at about 2.2B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 7.36; our models calculate a fair value of kr 6.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOL?
Our models span a range for Northern Ocean Ltd: cautious scenario kr 4.59, base kr 6.15, optimistic kr 6.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 7.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northern Ocean Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −30.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOL from its 52-week high?
Northern Ocean Ltd trades at kr 7.36, about 31% below its 52-week high of kr 10.62 and 27% above the low of kr 5.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 6.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Ocean Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Transocean Ltd, Valaris Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Ocean Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 7.36, calculated fair value kr 6.15 (−16%), Quality Score 33/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOL calculated?
We run Northern Ocean Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 6.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Northern Ocean Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 7.36. Our model-based fair value is kr 6.15, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Ocean Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 6.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Northern Ocean Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Ocean Ltd is 2.2B NOK (≈ $234M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northern Ocean Ltd is 9.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
Earnings per share at Northern Ocean Ltd are kr −3.54. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
The net margin of Northern Ocean Ltd is −36.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Ocean Ltd is −30.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Ocean Ltd is −4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
The operating margin of Northern Ocean Ltd is −176% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL)?
Revenue at Northern Ocean Ltd is growing −77.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +135%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL) generate?
The free cash flow of Northern Ocean Ltd is −53.4M NOK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL) carry?
The net debt of Northern Ocean Ltd is 62.5M NOK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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