Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · NO · Market cap 2.3B NOK
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price −0.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 91% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 0.6460). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 5.30 – kr 16.24 · fair‑value band kr 0.4845 – kr 0.6460 · the kr 7.46 price screens above the kr 0.6460 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Northern Ocean Ltd (NOL) currently trades at kr 7.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 0.6460, implying the stock looks roughly 91.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Northern Ocean Ltd generated revenue of 272M NOK at a net margin of -37.7%. Revenue grew 77.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -26.0%. Net debt stands at 62.5M NOK. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 0.4845 (bear case) to kr 0.6460 (bull case); at kr 7.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -91%, NOL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (kr 0.7600) versus Multiples (kr 0.3100). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Northern Ocean Ltd. provides offshore contract drilling services for the oil and gas industry worldwide. The company owns and operates one semi-submersible rig. It also invests in power generation solutions. The company offers integrated drilling services, including rig preparation, mobilization, demobilization, and add-on services.
Full company description
Northern Ocean Ltd. provides offshore contract drilling services for the oil and gas industry worldwide. The company owns and operates one semi-submersible rig. It also invests in power generation solutions. The company offers integrated drilling services, including rig preparation, mobilization, demobilization, and add-on services. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northern Ocean Ltd reported revenue of kr 279M in FY2025 versus kr 67.8M in FY2021, a compound +42.5%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 103M in FY2025.
NOL screens 91% overvalued. Compare with Noble Corporation →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Drilling · 31 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Corporation NE | $41.79 | $23.09 | -45% |
| Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation 600871 | ¥2.21 | ¥0.4900 | -78% |
| Transocean Ltd RIG | $5.14 | $2.16 | -58% |
| Valaris Limited VAL | $79.57 | $63.09 | -21% |
| Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN | $9.39 | $12.20 | +30% |
| Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP | $34.14 | $9.25 | -73% |
| Seadrill Limited SDRL | $42.86 | $10.17 | -76% |
| Arabian Drilling Company 2381 | 80.70 SAR | 11.09 SAR | -86% |
| Nabors Industries Ltd NBR | $84.72 | $209.20 | +147% |
| Borr Drilling Limited BORR | kr 41.99 | kr 27.75 | -34% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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