Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. $3.52, price $27.76, upside -87.3%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Quality Too ExpensiveExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.
!Fair value $3.52 · Strongly overvalued (−87%)
✓Quality 76/100
✓Healthy Growth(revenue YoY +33.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers(5/10)
✓Wide moat85/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
12‑month range $17.14 – $35.11 · fair‑value band $2.64 – $4.40 · the $27.76 price screens above the $3.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Neptune Flood Incorporated, operates as an insurance agency that engages in selling residential and commercial flood insurance policies on behalf of insurance carrier partners in the United States.
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Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Neptune Flood Incorporated, operates as an insurance agency that engages in selling residential and commercial flood insurance policies on behalf of insurance carrier partners in the United States. The company offers primary and excess flood, parametric earthquake, and indemnity earthquake insurance through a network of agencies. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Saint Petersburg, Florida.
Stock analysis
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) currently trades at $27.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.52, implying the stock looks roughly 688.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $19.16 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $27.76 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.52, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.64 (bear) to $4.40 (bull), the price of $27.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $160M in FY2025 versus $84.9M in FY2023, a compound +37.1%/yr. Reported net income was $37.4M in FY2025, compounding +44.6%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap $4.3B · P/S ratio 25.7 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1800 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 23.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 124% · Operating margin 35.6% · Revenue (TTM) $168M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −87%, NP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.64Fair Value $3.52Bull $4.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.6% a year for the price and +13.5% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 35 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−87% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets88% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)36% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth29% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)25.70× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF90.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA58.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 62
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)81· sector 90
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NP
Frequently asked questions
Is Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.52 versus a price of $27.76, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NP?
Our model-based fair value for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is $3.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $27.76.
What is the quality score of NP?
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.64, optimistic scenario $4.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.52, about −87% upside versus a price of $27.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.64, optimistic scenario $4.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $168M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. pay a dividend?
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +37.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +37.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NP use?
Our models discount Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. that is +37.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. grew +37.1 % a year. The price currently implies +37.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (+37.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.24 %: that much free cash flow Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. it is $3.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $27.76. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NP trades above its calculated fair value: price $27.76, fair value $3.52, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($27.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.52). For Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. the two are $24.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. at about $4.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $27.76; our models calculate a fair value of $3.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NP?
Our models span a range for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $2.64, base $3.52, optimistic $4.40 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $27.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NP from its 52-week high?
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. trades at $27.76, about 21% below its 52-week high of $35.11 and 62% above the low of $17.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Aon plc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $27.76, calculated fair value $3.52 (−87%), Quality Score 76/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NP calculated?
We run Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $27.76. Our model-based fair value is $3.52, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
The market capitalisation of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is $4.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is 25.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
Earnings per share at Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. are $−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
The dividend yield of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is 4.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
The net margin of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is 23.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is 124% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
The operating margin of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is 35.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
Revenue at Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is growing +28.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP)?
Earnings per share at Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. are growing +3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) carry?
The net debt of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is $232M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026