Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $4.3B
Neptune Insurance Holdings
NP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $5.13 to $3.52 (−31.4%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +1.6% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (10 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $17.14 – $35.11 · fair‑value band $2.64 – $4.40 · the $32.02 price screens above the $3.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP) currently trades at $32.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.52, implying the stock looks roughly 89.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Neptune Insurance Holdings generated revenue of $168M at a net margin of 20.7%. Revenue grew 28.8% year over year. Net debt stands at $232M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.64 (bear case) to $4.40 (bull case); at $32.02, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 117% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at -89%, NP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($19.16) versus Multiples ($3.52). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Neptune Flood Incorporated, operates as an insurance agency that engages in selling residential and commercial flood insurance policies on behalf of insurance carrier partners in the United States.
Full company description
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Neptune Flood Incorporated, operates as an insurance agency that engages in selling residential and commercial flood insurance policies on behalf of insurance carrier partners in the United States. The company offers primary and excess flood, parametric earthquake, and indemnity earthquake insurance through a network of agencies. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Saint Petersburg, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Neptune Insurance Holdings reported revenue of $160M in FY2025 versus $84.9M in FY2023, a compound +37.1%/yr. Reported net income was $37.4M in FY2025, compounding +44.6%/yr from FY2023.
NP screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $182.18 | $112.25 | -38% |
| Aon plc AON | $367.21 | $224.91 | -39% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG | $253.09 | $75.58 | -70% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $285.12 | $220.92 | -23% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $67.66 | $40.43 | -40% |
| Erie Indemnity Company ERIE | $227.31 | $157.43 | -31% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,574 | ₹188.49 | -88% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $62.29 | $47.59 | -24% |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | $13.52 | $18.06 | +34% |
| Rasan Information Technology Company 8313 | 130.20 SAR | 63.71 SAR | -51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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