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Accelerant Holdings (ARX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Accelerant Holdings is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN KYG008941083

AH Accelerant Holdings logo Some data Sep 19, 2026

Accelerant Holdings

ARX · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $39.64 · Strongly undervalued (+100%)
!Quality 43/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +60.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -150.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$30.05 $9.36 Fair Value $39.64 Jul 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

14‑month range $9.36 – $30.05 · fair‑value band $26.00 – $45.87 · the $19.78 price screens below the $39.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 19, 2026.

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Company profile

Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments.

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Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments. The Exchange Services segment consists of risk exchange, its operating platform that incorporates various technology, data ingestion, and agency operations that serve the needs of its members and risk capital partners. Its Risk capital partners write premiums directly through the Risk Exchange pay us a fixed-percentage, volume-based fee for sourcing, managing, and monitoring the business they write. The MGA Operations segment includes the fees earned by members, predominantly for originating and underwriting a portfolio of insurance policies, reduced by the expenses associated with providing services. The Underwriting segment is involved in underwriting insurance policies and assumption of reinsurance policies issued or accepted by consolidated insurance and reinsurance companies. The activities of insurance companies include property and casualty insurance, policy issuance, and reinsurance arrangements. It serves small-to-medium sized commercial clients primarily in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Accelerant Holdings was founded in 2018 and is based in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.

Stock analysis

Accelerant Holdings (ARX) currently trades at $19.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.64, implying the stock looks roughly 50.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $75.47 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the $19.78 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.14, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $26.00 (bear) to $45.87 (bull), the price of $19.78 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Accelerant Holdings reported revenue of $880M in FY2025 versus $103M in FY2021, a compound +70.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.4B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.8B · P/S ratio 3.34 · EPS (TTM) $−6.49 · Net margin −151% · Return on equity −243% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.4% · Operating margin −2.2% · Revenue (TTM) $954M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 100%, ARX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $26.00 Fair Value $39.64 Bull $45.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $71.80 $102.52 $198.29 72
Growth DCF $68.33 $116.63 $194.43 71
5Y Revenue Exit $39.78 $51.49 $75.46 68
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $71.80 $102.52 $198.29 72
5Y Revenue Exit $39.78 $51.49 $75.46 68
10Y Revenue Exit $49.34 $75.47 $87.42 64
Multiples
EV/Revenue $25.79 $30.47 $35.15 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.09 $4.14 $6.19 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $68.33 $116.63 $194.43 71
Rev-Margin DCF $41.98 $56.87 $88.51 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 98
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+47.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−19.4% (2021) → −150.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+26.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+12.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+11.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+10.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.7%

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

Compare Accelerant Holdings with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance Brokers · 35 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +53% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −151% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 60% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.17× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.23× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.09× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 7.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 15.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 59
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 60
HEALTH (low debt)91 · sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 87

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH $179.76 $78.77 −56%
Aon plc AON $300.57 $224.91 −25%
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG $248.04 $75.58 −70%
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW $312.91 $163.52 −48%
Brown & Brown, Inc BRO $65.88 $34.67 −47%
Erie Indemnity Company ERIE $245.58 $113.32 −54%
Neptune Insurance Holdings NP $30.21 $3.52 −88%
CorVel Corporation CRVL $70.51 $39.55 −44%
AUB Group AUB A$28.89 A$17.92 −38%
Ethos Technologies Inc LIFE $36.00 $29.92 −17%

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Accelerant Holdings · Fair Value
$39.64 +50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Accelerant Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARX

Frequently asked questions

Is Accelerant Holdings (ARX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $39.64 versus a price of $19.78, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARX?
Our model-based fair value for Accelerant Holdings is $39.64 (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.78.
What is the quality score of ARX?
Accelerant Holdings has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $39.64 (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.00, optimistic scenario $45.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Accelerant Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $39.64, about +100% upside versus a price of $19.78 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $26.00, optimistic scenario $45.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
Accelerant Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $954M (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Accelerant Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -22.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +70.9 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARX use?
Our models discount Accelerant Holdings at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Accelerant Holdings that is -22.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Accelerant Holdings (ARX) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Accelerant Holdings grew +70.9 % a year. The price currently implies -22.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Accelerant Holdings (ARX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Accelerant Holdings (-22.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.73 %: that much free cash flow Accelerant Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Accelerant Holdings it is $39.64 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of $19.78. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Accelerant Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, ARX trades below its calculated fair value: price $19.78, fair value $39.64, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($39.64). For Accelerant Holdings the two are $19.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Accelerant Holdings worth?
The market values Accelerant Holdings at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is $19.78; our models calculate a fair value of $39.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARX?
Our models span a range for Accelerant Holdings: cautious scenario $26.00, base $39.64, optimistic $45.87 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price $19.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Accelerant Holdings (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity −243.2%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARX from its 52-week high?
Accelerant Holdings trades at $19.78, about 37% below its 52-week high of $31.18 and 115% above the low of $9.18 (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $39.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Accelerant Holdings?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc, Aon plc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co, Willis Towers Watson Public Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Accelerant Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price $19.78, calculated fair value $39.64 (+100%), Quality Score 43/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARX calculated?
We run Accelerant Holdings through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $39.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Accelerant Holdings currently trades 100 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $19.78. Our model-based fair value is $39.64, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Accelerant Holdings right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($26.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Accelerant Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
The market capitalisation of Accelerant Holdings is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Accelerant Holdings is 3.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
Earnings per share at Accelerant Holdings are $−6.49. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
The net margin of Accelerant Holdings is −151% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Accelerant Holdings is −243% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Accelerant Holdings is −4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
The operating margin of Accelerant Holdings is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
Revenue at Accelerant Holdings is growing +59.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +60.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Accelerant Holdings (ARX)?
Earnings per share at Accelerant Holdings are growing −11.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Accelerant Holdings (ARX) hold?
Accelerant Holdings holds more cash than debt, $1.7B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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