Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NP5) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · DE · Market cap €264M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €1.05 to €1.51 (+43.8%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +8.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€2.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (€0.6800 to €2.34). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.13 – €33.00 · fair‑value band €0.6800 – €2.34 · the €13.80 price screens above the €1.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A (NP5) currently trades at €13.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.51, implying the stock looks roughly 89.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A generated revenue of €19.1M at a net margin of -69.2%. Revenue declined 84.9% year over year. Net debt stands at €26.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €0.6800 (bear case) to €2.34 (bull case); at €13.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -89%, NP5 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€28.60) versus Dividend Discount (€0.7500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops novel therapies for patients with diseases of the central and peripheral nervous system in Italy and the United States.
Full company description
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops novel therapies for patients with diseases of the central and peripheral nervous system in Italy and the United States. It offers Xadago (safinamide), a chemical entity for the treatment of Parkinson's in the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, Latin America, Switzerland, and Japan. The company's lead compound includes Evenamide, an add-on therapy for the treatment of Schizophrenia and treatment-resistant schizophrenia, which is in Phase III clinical trial; and Ralfinamide for the treatment of rare neuropathic pain indication. It has a strategic partnership with Zambon and Meiji Seika Pharma Co., Ltd. for the commercialization of safinamide. Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Bresso, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A reported revenue of €19.1M in FY2025 versus €5.8M in FY2021, a compound +35.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€13.3M in FY2025.
NP5 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 600 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,037 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 317,500 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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