Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock ZAR 174, price ZAR 242, that is 28.0% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R83.99 – R437.60 · fair‑value band R108.48 – R277.93 · the R242.20 price screens above the R174.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Northam Platinum Holdings Limited, through its subsidiary, Northam Platinum Limited, engages in the production and sale of platinum group metals. It operates through four segments: Zondereinde mine, Booysendal mine, Eland mine, and the US recycling operations.
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The company explores for platinum, palladium, rhodium, gold, iridium, ruthenium, silver, nickel, copper, cobalt, and chrome deposits.
It holds interests in the Booysendal mine located on the eastern limb of the Bushveld complex; the Zondereinde mine located in the northern end of the western limb of the Bushveld complex; and the Eland mine located in the south-eastern portion of the western limb of the Bushveld complex.
The company also offers recycling services. Northam Platinum Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) currently trades at R242.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R174.29, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R902.87 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the R242.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R71.06, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R108.48 (bear) to R277.93 (bull), the price of R242.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 53.8B ZAR in FY2026 versus 34.1B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was 13.9B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 97.8B ZAR Mid · P/E ratio 7.0 · P/S ratio 1.81 · EPS (TTM) R34.40 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 25.7% · Return on equity 37.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −28%, NPH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR108.48Fair Value R174.29BullR277.93
Price R242.20 · Downside -28.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (6.60 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFR334.18R479.35R850.3078
Growth DCFR316.70R497.96R794.0977
EPVR187.25R207.31R223.3874
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFR334.18R479.35R850.3078
Owner EarningsR360.65R681.91R1,22773
5Y Revenue ExitR221.76R351.23R597.0171
5Y EBITDA ExitR306.03R532.18R943.3372
5Y P/E ExitR394.54R794.25R1,30768
10Y Revenue ExitR256.92R422.94R586.4166
10Y EBITDA ExitR309.94R555.00R983.9066
10Y P/E ExitR361.41R693.72R1,25861
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddR239.77R1,672R2,34763
Lynch FVR535.76R765.37R994.9861
PEG = 1.0R535.76R765.37R994.9857
EPVR187.25R207.31R223.3874
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMR59.68R96.57R122.2269
DDM Multi-StageR59.68R93.14R104.1867
Multiples
P/E MultipleR449.58R599.43R749.2963
P/S MultipleR153.68R204.91R256.1458
P/B MultipleR238.62R318.16R397.7055
EV/EBITR375.89R498.99R622.0966
EV/EBITDAR304.58R403.91R503.2467
EV/RevenueR150.03R211.50R272.9754
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)R53.03R71.06R106.0554
Growth DCF
Growth DCFR316.70R497.96R794.0977
Rev-Margin DCFR221.76R377.86R609.7771
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeR165.88R250.05R513.2271
ROIC CompounderR215.13R274.48R346.9572
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/ER632.01R902.87R1,17467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+63.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−16.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 26%
2026 sits 646% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.5% a year for the price and +10.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Steady production and reserve growth through internal projects sets the company apart from peers, yet negative free cash flow and low margins point to a weak durable advantage in a commoditized market.
Main risk: Accelerating battery-electric vehicle adoption could reduce demand for platinum group metals in automotive catalytic converters, hitting Northam's core sales volumes and margins from the auto sector.
Bull case: Northam could benefit from rising industrial and hydrogen demand plus AI-related uses for ruthenium and platinum to offset any automotive decline and expand volumes under its Vision 2031 plan.
Bear case: If EV adoption accelerates sharply and South African operational challenges intensify, Northam might face sustained lower volumes, higher costs and margin pressure that limits its ability to fund growth projects.
Northam has steadily grown production and reserves through internal projects, setting it apart from many peers even in weaker cycles, and it recently drew expressions of interest from several parties for potential transactions. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will this operational edge and any strategic moves strengthen the business more than they complicate its independent path, or will they simply confirm the premium already built in?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 151 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−28.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)37.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets19.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)25.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)26.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)67.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R174.29 versus a price of R242.20, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NPH?
Our model-based fair value for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is R174.29 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R242.20.
What is the quality score of NPH?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R174.29 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R108.48, optimistic scenario R277.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R174.29, about 28% lower versus a price of R242.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R108.48, optimistic scenario R277.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 54.0B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of R17.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 16, 2026. The payout ratio is 55.5% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 49.1%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.69 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPH use?
Our models discount Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd that is +0.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +0.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (+0.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.58 %: that much free cash flow Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd it is R174.29 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of R242.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, NPH trades above its calculated fair value: price R242.20, fair value R174.29, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R242.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R174.29). For Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd the two are R67.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd at about 97.8B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is R242.20; our models calculate a fair value of R174.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPH?
Our models span a range for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R108.48, base R174.29, optimistic R277.93 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price R242.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPH?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.0 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R174.29 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 8.0 (reported 7.0). Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 37.2%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPH from its 52-week high?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd trades at R242.20, about 45% below its 52-week high of R437.60 and 13% above the low of R215.05 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R174.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, China Gold International Resources Corp, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price R242.20, calculated fair value R174.29 (−28%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPH calculated?
We run Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R174.29 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was R242.20. Our model-based fair value is R174.29, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (R108.48 to R277.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The market capitalisation of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 97.8B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 1.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Earnings per share at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd are R34.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The dividend yield of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 7.0% (payout 55.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 49.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The net margin of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 25.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 37.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 17.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The operating margin of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 26.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Revenue at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is growing +67.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Earnings per share at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd are growing +365% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) hold?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.6B ZAR net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Why does Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd meet the fair value rule although the fair value shown is lower?
Peak profit dampened: R497.96 → R174.29. The latest annual profit is far above the years before, and such peaks rarely last. So we calculate cautiously with R174.29 instead of R497.96. If the profit stays high, we ease the caution year by year. As in the backtest, the fair value rule checks the value before: +106% against the price.
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Broad data
Nov 12, 2026