Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd ZAR 64.28, price ZAR 261, upside -75.4%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R83.99 – R437.60 · fair‑value band R54.46 – R80.35 · the R260.73 price screens above the R64.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Northam Platinum Holdings Limited, through its subsidiary, Northam Platinum Limited, engages in the production and sale of platinum group metals. It operates through four segments: Zondereinde mine, Booysendal mine, Eland mine, and the US recycling operations.
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Northam Platinum Holdings Limited, through its subsidiary, Northam Platinum Limited, engages in the production and sale of platinum group metals. It operates through four segments: Zondereinde mine, Booysendal mine, Eland mine, and the US recycling operations. The company explores for platinum, palladium, rhodium, gold, iridium, ruthenium, silver, nickel, copper, cobalt, and chrome deposits. It holds interests in the Booysendal mine located on the eastern limb of the Bushveld complex; the Zondereinde mine located in the northern end of the western limb of the Bushveld complex; and the Eland mine located in the south-eastern portion of the western limb of the Bushveld complex. The company also offers recycling services. Northam Platinum Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) currently trades at R260.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R64.28, 75.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R78.26 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the R260.73 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R12.73, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R54.46 (bear) to R80.35 (bull), the price of R260.73 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 32.9B ZAR in FY2025 versus 32.6B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.5B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −36.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 102B ZAC · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) R34.40 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 26.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −75%, NPH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (R12.73 to R143.60). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear R54.46Fair Value R64.28Bull R80.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (13.94 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.2% vs 65.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 11%
Compare Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−75.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)24.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth60.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)7.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B3.17× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.45× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA10.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)69· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R64.28 versus a price of R260.73, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NPH?
Our model-based fair value for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is R64.28 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R260.73.
What is the quality score of NPH?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R64.28 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R54.46, optimistic scenario R80.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R64.28, about −75% upside versus a price of R260.73 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R54.46, optimistic scenario R80.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 41.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd it is R64.28 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R260.73. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NPH trades above its calculated fair value: price R260.73, fair value R64.28, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R260.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R64.28). For Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd the two are R196.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd at about 102B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R260.73; our models calculate a fair value of R64.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPH?
Our models span a range for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R54.46, base R64.28, optimistic R80.35 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R260.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPH?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R64.28 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 8.6 (reported 7.6). Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 10.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 26.3%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPH from its 52-week high?
Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd trades at R260.73, about 40% below its 52-week high of R437.60 and 21% above the low of R215.05 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R64.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R260.73, calculated fair value R64.28 (−75%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPH calculated?
We run Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R64.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was R260.73. Our model-based fair value is R64.28, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R80.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The market capitalisation of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 102B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 0.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Earnings per share at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd are R34.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The dividend yield of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 3.5% (payout 44.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 39.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The net margin of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 26.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 21.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
The operating margin of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 24.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Revenue at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is growing +60.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH)?
Earnings per share at Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd are growing +31.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) generate?
The free cash flow of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is −231M ZAC (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd (NPH) carry?
The net debt of Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd is 5.5B ZAC (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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