Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha $9.73, price $9.80, upside -0.7%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.76 – $9.80 · fair‑value band $5.90 – $13.79 · the $9.80 price screens above the $9.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers container ships transport, port cargo handling, and ship agency services; and operates container terminals and tugboats.
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Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers container ships transport, port cargo handling, and ship agency services; and operates container terminals and tugboats. It also provides logistics services, including land transportation by truck and rail, customs clearance, and ocean and air freight forwarding services; supply chain management services comprising collection, storage, inspection, sorting, labeling, repackaging, delivery to specified destinations, and management and IT-based information management services; and transporting of completed vehicles, construction and heavy machinery, and used vehicles. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of dry bulk services; and energy transportation of products, such as crude oil, petroleum products, chemicals, liquefied petroleum gas, liquefied natural gas, coal, seismic survey vessels, drill ships, floating production storage and offloading units, and shuttle tankers for the upstream and midstream sectors. Further, it engages in operating cruise business; and renting out office buildings and residential properties. Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha was incorporated in 1885 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY) currently trades at $9.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.73, implying the stock looks roughly 0.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $12.34 per share, and 9 of the 23 models we run sit above the $9.80 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.29, and 14 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.90 (bear) to $13.79 (bull), the price of $9.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha reported revenue of ¥2.6T in FY2026 versus ¥2.3T in FY2022, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥225B in FY2026, compounding −31.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $20.6B · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) $0.6300 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 61% fair-value upside, at −1%, NPNYY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.90Fair Value $9.73Bull $13.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.2% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 24%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.2% a year for the price and −1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (45 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.73 versus a price of $9.80, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NPNYY?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha is $9.73 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.80.
What is the quality score of NPNYY?
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.73 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.90, optimistic scenario $13.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.73, about −1% upside versus a price of $9.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.90, optimistic scenario $13.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha pay a dividend?
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPNYY use?
Our models discount Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha that is +8.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +8.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (+8.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.50 %: that much free cash flow Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha it is $9.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.80. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NPNYY trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.80, fair value $9.73, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPNYY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.73). For Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha the two are $0.0700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha worth?
The market values Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha at about $20.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.80; our models calculate a fair value of $9.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPNYY?
Our models span a range for Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha: cautious scenario $5.90, base $9.73, optimistic $13.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPNYY?
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 12.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPNYY from its 52-week high?
Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha trades at $9.80, at its 52-week high of $9.80 and 78% above the low of $5.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.80, calculated fair value $9.73 (−1%), Quality Score 47/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPNYY calculated?
We run Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.80. Our model-based fair value is $9.73, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($5.90 to $13.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY) come from?
Earnings per share at Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha grew +28.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin +11.7 %, tax rate +6.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha is $20.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha is 1.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha are $0.6300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha is 6.4% (payout 99.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
The net margin of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha is 8.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
The operating margin of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha are growing −16.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NPNYY) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha is ¥991B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026