Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. $14.84, price $17.35, upside -14.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range $12.90 – $20.23 · fair‑value band $9.33 – $19.16 · the $17.35 price screens above the $14.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of various industrial gases in Japan, the United States, Europe, Asia, and Oceania.
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Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of various industrial gases in Japan, the United States, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. It offers industrial gases for various industries; medical gases for hospitals and home-based care; and electronic material gases for manufacturing process of liquid-crystal and semiconductor; and various products under the Thermos name. The company was formerly known as Taiyo Nippon Sanso Corporation and changed its name to Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation in October 2020. Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Shinagawa, Japan. Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation is a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation.
Stock analysis
Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY) currently trades at $17.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.84, implying the stock looks roughly 16.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $16.22 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $17.35 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.36, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.33 (bear) to $19.16 (bull), the price of $17.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. reported revenue of ¥1.4T in FY2026 versus ¥957B in FY2022, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥124B in FY2026, compounding +17.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $15.0B · P/E ratio 19.5 · P/S ratio 1.78 · EPS (TTM) $0.8900 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −14%, NPXYY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.33Fair Value $14.84Bull $19.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3366 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 14%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.2% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 350 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−15% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.84 versus a price of $17.35, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NPXYY?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is $14.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.35.
What is the quality score of NPXYY?
Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.33, optimistic scenario $19.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.84, about −14% upside versus a price of $17.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.33, optimistic scenario $19.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. pay a dividend?
Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by -4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPXYY use?
Our models discount Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. that is -4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies -4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (-4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.73 %: that much free cash flow Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. it is $14.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $17.35. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NPXYY trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.35, fair value $14.84, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPXYY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.84). For Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. the two are $2.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. worth?
The market values Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. at about $15.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $17.35; our models calculate a fair value of $14.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPXYY?
Our models span a range for Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp.: cautious scenario $9.33, base $14.84, optimistic $19.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $17.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NPXYY?
Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPXYY from its 52-week high?
Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. trades at $17.35, about 14% below its 52-week high of $20.23 and 20% above the low of $14.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $17.35, calculated fair value $14.84 (−14%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPXYY calculated?
We run Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $17.35. Our model-based fair value is $14.84, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($9.33 to $19.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is $15.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is 1.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. are $0.8900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is 1.1% (payout 22.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
The net margin of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is 9.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
The operating margin of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
Revenue at Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. are growing +44.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. (NPXYY) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Sanso Holdings Corp. is ¥717B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026