Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Natural Resource Partners LP stock $97.23, price $118, that is 17.4% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.92 – $123.62 · fair‑value band $68.58 – $108.15 · the $117.71 price screens above the $97.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Natural Resource Partners L.P., together with its subsidiaries, owns, manages, and leases a portfolio of mineral properties in the United States. It operates in two segments, Mineral Rights and Soda Ash. It owns interests in coal, soda ash, trona, and other natural resources.
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The company's coal reserves are primarily located in the Appalachia Basin, the Illinois Basin, and the Northern Powder River Basin in the United States; industrial minerals and aggregates properties located in the United States; and oil and gas properties located in Louisiana.
It leases a portion of its reserves in exchange for royalty payments; and owns and leases transportation and processing infrastructure related to coal properties. Natural Resource Partners L.P. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP) currently trades at $117.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $97.23, 17% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $175.05 per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the $117.71 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $30.81, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $68.58 (bear) to $108.15 (bull), the price of $117.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Natural Resource Partners LP reported revenue of $202M in FY2025 versus $194M in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $134M in FY2025, compounding +5.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B Small · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 8.97 · EPS (TTM) $7.51 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 57.6% · Return on equity 16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −17%, NRP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$68.58Fair Value $97.23Bull$108.15
Price $117.71 · Downside -17.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $34,332, on May 26, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $243,958.
SaleGregory F WootenExecutive Vice President2,200 shares at $110.89$243,958Aug 28, 2026
BuyKevin J CraigExecutive Vice President336 shares at $102.18$34,332May 26, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+8.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.8% vs 1.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−34% → 69%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.1% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Natural Resource Partners LP with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)57.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)60.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−12.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.0× · Pricier than median
P/B2.51× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)8.97× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.4× · Cheaper than median
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Is Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $97.23 versus a price of $117.71, about 17% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NRP?
Our model-based fair value for Natural Resource Partners LP is $97.23 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $117.71.
What is the quality score of NRP?
Natural Resource Partners LP has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $97.23 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $68.58, optimistic scenario $108.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Natural Resource Partners LP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $97.23, about 17% lower versus a price of $117.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $68.58, optimistic scenario $108.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
Natural Resource Partners LP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $174M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Natural Resource Partners LP pay a dividend?
Natural Resource Partners LP currently shows a dividend yield of 2.55% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Natural Resource Partners LP pays a dividend of $3.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2003. The payout ratio is 39.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.17 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Natural Resource Partners LP would have to grow free cash flow by -3.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NRP use?
Our models discount Natural Resource Partners LP at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Natural Resource Partners LP that is -3.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Natural Resource Partners LP grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Natural Resource Partners LP (-3.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.62 %: that much free cash flow Natural Resource Partners LP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Natural Resource Partners LP it is $97.23 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $117.71. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Natural Resource Partners LP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, NRP trades above its calculated fair value: price $117.71, fair value $97.23, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NRP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($117.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($97.23). For Natural Resource Partners LP the two are $20.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Natural Resource Partners LP worth?
The market values Natural Resource Partners LP at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $117.71; our models calculate a fair value of $97.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NRP?
Our models span a range for Natural Resource Partners LP: cautious scenario $68.58, base $97.23, optimistic $108.15 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $117.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NRP?
Natural Resource Partners LP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $97.23 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 4.5. Other multiples: PEG 8.3, P/B 2.5, P/S 9.0, EV/EBITDA 12.0.
What is the PEG ratio of NRP?
The PEG ratio of Natural Resource Partners LP is 8.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Natural Resource Partners LP (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 16.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NRP from its 52-week high?
Natural Resource Partners LP trades at $117.71, about 5% below its 52-week high of $123.62 and 24% above the low of $95.31 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $97.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Natural Resource Partners LP?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Natural Resource Partners LP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $117.71, calculated fair value $97.23 (−17%), Quality Score 74/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NRP calculated?
We run Natural Resource Partners LP through 23 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $97.23 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Natural Resource Partners LP itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $117.71. Our model-based fair value is $97.23, about 17% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Natural Resource Partners LP right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($108.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (74/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP) come from?
Earnings per share at Natural Resource Partners LP grew +1.7 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.7 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +5.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Natural Resource Partners LP
How large is the market capitalisation of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
The market capitalisation of Natural Resource Partners LP is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Natural Resource Partners LP is 8.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
Earnings per share at Natural Resource Partners LP are $7.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
The dividend yield of Natural Resource Partners LP is 2.5% (payout 39.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
The net margin of Natural Resource Partners LP is 57.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Natural Resource Partners LP is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Natural Resource Partners LP is 25.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
The operating margin of Natural Resource Partners LP is 60.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
Revenue at Natural Resource Partners LP is growing −12.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)?
Earnings per share at Natural Resource Partners LP are growing −14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP) carry?
The net debt of Natural Resource Partners LP is $2.9M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026